63
governed in certain ways, citizen participatory approaches can hit a fairly good balance between diverged processes and converged outcomes of BC scenario-making
on the issue of urban sustainability transition. This leads us to claim that by way of
ascertaining a required level of credibility, such a finding serves to prove and
enhance practicality and implementability of BC scenarios that are considered daily
policy instruments.
Among other possible contributing factors, the ones most significant to this
favorable result would be the combination of logic trees and the list of key items.
While it is plausible that these two aspects synergistically provided the WS participants with a good deal of reference focal points affecting the ways in which their
dialogues were framed and constructed, each of the two groups ended up having
their divergent opinions reflected in the scenarios’ substances. Considering the fact
that envisioning sustainability of future cities inevitably demands embracing pluralistic ideas and reflecting a set of multiple value systems (Umeda 2008; Kishita et al.
2010; Lang et al. 2012; Kanie 2017), we consider that the methods and processes
we employed in the WS have some credibility toward achieving this goal.
Furthermore, our 3S analyses found that three issues—civic pride, health/welfare, and dealing with population decline—were equally recognized by both groups
as important aspects to be pursued and realized when considering desirable features
and functions of their future city. Even if those three issues were induced to be participants’ significant interests because of the framing effects associated with the list
of key items, we argue that this still conveys an important implication, particularly
from a practical policy viewpoint. Notwithstanding the fact that the two groups
came up with significantly different scenarios, it was shown that all the participants
could reach a consensus on the importance and necessity of the same three policyrelated issues. We tend to interpret such a phenomenon as manifestation of “core
beliefs” held by the participating citizens acting as a collective decision-making
entity. The significance of such a finding in BC scenario-making should not be
undervalued because it is central to the democratic procedural legitimacy attached
to collective decision-making (Sandker et al. 2010; Lang et al. 2012).
Drawing from such an understanding, we assert that further analyses should be
conducted to identify what types of relationships and dynamics exist within the
dialogues and processes between the agreed three issues (i.e., core beliefs in our
terms) and the converged textural structures. When explored in a positivistic/empirical manner, findings thereof will make a significant contribution to deeper understanding of the interaction and its mechanism between the two concepts of
“divergence” (diverged processes and opinions) and “convergence” (converged outcomes and structures) inherently attached to BC scenario-making, especially viewed
in the context of general citizens’ consensus-building. At the same time, such studies will also contribute to advancing the understanding of the complex and multifaceted nature of a future city’s function and its transition toward sustainability.
We therefore claim that the results of our study indicate that there exists the
rationale for bringing about more and more lay citizens’ direct participation in BC
scenario-making in the future. Besides being often advocated in the relevant literature from a normative standpoint, the theme has not so far been addressed or
4 The Use of Backcasting to Promote Urban Transformation to Sustainability…
governed in certain ways, citizen participatory approaches can hit a fairly good balance between diverged processes and converged outcomes of BC scenario-making
on the issue of urban sustainability transition. This leads us to claim that by way of
ascertaining a required level of credibility, such a finding serves to prove and
enhance practicality and implementability of BC scenarios that are considered daily
policy instruments.
Among other possible contributing factors, the ones most significant to this
favorable result would be the combination of logic trees and the list of key items.
While it is plausible that these two aspects synergistically provided the WS participants with a good deal of reference focal points affecting the ways in which their
dialogues were framed and constructed, each of the two groups ended up having
their divergent opinions reflected in the scenarios’ substances. Considering the fact
that envisioning sustainability of future cities inevitably demands embracing pluralistic ideas and reflecting a set of multiple value systems (Umeda 2008; Kishita et al.
2010; Lang et al. 2012; Kanie 2017), we consider that the methods and processes
we employed in the WS have some credibility toward achieving this goal.
Furthermore, our 3S analyses found that three issues—civic pride, health/welfare, and dealing with population decline—were equally recognized by both groups
as important aspects to be pursued and realized when considering desirable features
and functions of their future city. Even if those three issues were induced to be participants’ significant interests because of the framing effects associated with the list
of key items, we argue that this still conveys an important implication, particularly
from a practical policy viewpoint. Notwithstanding the fact that the two groups
came up with significantly different scenarios, it was shown that all the participants
could reach a consensus on the importance and necessity of the same three policyrelated issues. We tend to interpret such a phenomenon as manifestation of “core
beliefs” held by the participating citizens acting as a collective decision-making
entity. The significance of such a finding in BC scenario-making should not be
undervalued because it is central to the democratic procedural legitimacy attached
to collective decision-making (Sandker et al. 2010; Lang et al. 2012).
Drawing from such an understanding, we assert that further analyses should be
conducted to identify what types of relationships and dynamics exist within the
dialogues and processes between the agreed three issues (i.e., core beliefs in our
terms) and the converged textural structures. When explored in a positivistic/empirical manner, findings thereof will make a significant contribution to deeper understanding of the interaction and its mechanism between the two concepts of
“divergence” (diverged processes and opinions) and “convergence” (converged outcomes and structures) inherently attached to BC scenario-making, especially viewed
in the context of general citizens’ consensus-building. At the same time, such studies will also contribute to advancing the understanding of the complex and multifaceted nature of a future city’s function and its transition toward sustainability.
We therefore claim that the results of our study indicate that there exists the
rationale for bringing about more and more lay citizens’ direct participation in BC
scenario-making in the future. Besides being often advocated in the relevant literature from a normative standpoint, the theme has not so far been addressed or
4 The Use of Backcasting to Promote Urban Transformation to Sustainability…