Ground Motion Prediction for Regional
Seismic Risk Analysis Including Nuclear
Power Station
Hiroyasu Abe
Abstract Ground motion simulation is one of techniques used to analyze seismic
risk due to damage of structure and its effects on society. In this paper, the ground
motion simulation using fault plane is used. Recently, ground motion simulation
using fault model have been widely applied. Characterized fault model is conveniently used to model the heterogeneous slip distribution on fault plane, which
divide the fault into two areas (asperity area and background area). More detailed
model is needed to conduct probabilistic seismic risk assessment, which incorporate
uncertainty in ground motion prediction. The model, however, is too simplified to
model the complex characteristics of slip. In this paper, a stochastic model to
simulate the slip distribution of fault plane is proposed for that purpose.
Keywords Seismic motion Á Random field Á Crustal earthquake Á Fault model Á
Earthquake ground motion
1 Introduction
To discuss the safety of critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants, seismic
risk assessment is conducted. Usually engineered system consists of several facilities which are spatially distributed. Though the conventional risk assessment is
mainly for a single facility, risk assessment for multi-facility is required. An
example of spatially distributed system is a nuclear power station. In a nuclear site,
several units are located. Additionally, sometimes several sites are located closely
each other. For public, the information on the likelihood and possible amount of
radioactive material release is needed and all the units may suffer from identical
external events, multi-unit risk assessment is necessary. For that purpose, a technique to simulate spatially distributed ground motion probabilistically is needed.
H. Abe (&)
Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, The University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: h.abe.ju95th@gmail.com
© The Author(s) 2017
J. Ahn et al. (eds.), Resilience: A New Paradigm of Nuclear Safety,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-58768-4_17
221
Seismic Risk Analysis Including Nuclear
Power Station
Hiroyasu Abe
Abstract Ground motion simulation is one of techniques used to analyze seismic
risk due to damage of structure and its effects on society. In this paper, the ground
motion simulation using fault plane is used. Recently, ground motion simulation
using fault model have been widely applied. Characterized fault model is conveniently used to model the heterogeneous slip distribution on fault plane, which
divide the fault into two areas (asperity area and background area). More detailed
model is needed to conduct probabilistic seismic risk assessment, which incorporate
uncertainty in ground motion prediction. The model, however, is too simplified to
model the complex characteristics of slip. In this paper, a stochastic model to
simulate the slip distribution of fault plane is proposed for that purpose.
Keywords Seismic motion Á Random field Á Crustal earthquake Á Fault model Á
Earthquake ground motion
1 Introduction
To discuss the safety of critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants, seismic
risk assessment is conducted. Usually engineered system consists of several facilities which are spatially distributed. Though the conventional risk assessment is
mainly for a single facility, risk assessment for multi-facility is required. An
example of spatially distributed system is a nuclear power station. In a nuclear site,
several units are located. Additionally, sometimes several sites are located closely
each other. For public, the information on the likelihood and possible amount of
radioactive material release is needed and all the units may suffer from identical
external events, multi-unit risk assessment is necessary. For that purpose, a technique to simulate spatially distributed ground motion probabilistically is needed.
H. Abe (&)
Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, The University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: h.abe.ju95th@gmail.com
© The Author(s) 2017
J. Ahn et al. (eds.), Resilience: A New Paradigm of Nuclear Safety,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-58768-4_17
221