76
4 Google as God?
used to win the “war on terror” was found to be ineffective, and drone strikes seem
to trigger new conflict rather than reducing it.
47
Why do these control attempts fail despite all the power that some governments
have? The issue is that a complex dynamical system such as our society cannot be
steered like a bus. Let’s compare this with our body, which is a complex dynamical
system, too. Here, we know very well that taking more medicine doesn’t help more,
but it might poison our body. In our economy and society, therefore, power needs to
be applied in the right dose, in the right place, in the right way. Typically, we don’t
need more power but more wisdom. In many cases, too much top-down control is a
problem, not the solution. It is also quite expensive, and we find it increasingly hard
to pay for it: most industrialized countries already have debt levels of at least 100 or
200% of their gross domestic product.
4.10 Complexity Is the Greatest Challenge
The complexity of today’s human-influenced systems is the main reason why
the concept of a “super-government”, “wise king” or “benevolent dictator” can’t
work for a long time. There are at least four kinds of complexity that matter:
dynamic complexity, structural complexity, functional complexity and algorithmic
complexity. I have already addressed the problem of complex dynamics. In the
following, I will focus on implications of structural, functional and algorithmic
complexity. Within a centralized super-computing approach we can only solve those
optimization problems, which have sufficiently low algorithmic complexity. But
many problems are “NP-hard”, i.e. computationally so demanding that they cannot be
handled in real-time even with today’s super-computing. This problem is particularly
acute in systems that are characterized by a large variability. In such cases, top-down
control can often not reach optimal results. In a later chapter, I will illustrate this by
the example of traffic light control.
Given the quick increase in computing power, couldn’t we overcome this challenge
in future? The surprising answer is “no”. While the processing power doubles every
18 months (blue curve in Fig. 4.1), the amount of data doubles even every 12 months
(green curve), and the growth rate will further increase.
48 This implies that we are
47 U.S. torture techniques unethical, ineffective (January 6, 2011), http://www.livescience.com/
9209-study-torture-techniquesunethical-ineffective.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective
ness_of_torture_for_interrogation and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/11/cia-harsh-interr
ogations_n_5130218.html; The Guardian, US drone attacks ‘counter-productive’, former Obama
security adviser claims (January 7, 2013), http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/07/obamaadviser-criticises-drone-policy; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/21/us-drone-strikes-ine
ffective_n_3313407.html; The NSA isn’t just spying on us, it’s also undermining Internet security
(April 30, 2014), http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/the-nsa-isn-t-just-spying-on-us-it-s-alsoundermining-internet-security-20140429; http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/31/
usa_freedom_act_update_how_the_nsa_hurts_our_economy_cybersecurity_and_foreign.html.
48 Helbing [10].
4 Google as God?
used to win the “war on terror” was found to be ineffective, and drone strikes seem
to trigger new conflict rather than reducing it.
47
Why do these control attempts fail despite all the power that some governments
have? The issue is that a complex dynamical system such as our society cannot be
steered like a bus. Let’s compare this with our body, which is a complex dynamical
system, too. Here, we know very well that taking more medicine doesn’t help more,
but it might poison our body. In our economy and society, therefore, power needs to
be applied in the right dose, in the right place, in the right way. Typically, we don’t
need more power but more wisdom. In many cases, too much top-down control is a
problem, not the solution. It is also quite expensive, and we find it increasingly hard
to pay for it: most industrialized countries already have debt levels of at least 100 or
200% of their gross domestic product.
4.10 Complexity Is the Greatest Challenge
The complexity of today’s human-influenced systems is the main reason why
the concept of a “super-government”, “wise king” or “benevolent dictator” can’t
work for a long time. There are at least four kinds of complexity that matter:
dynamic complexity, structural complexity, functional complexity and algorithmic
complexity. I have already addressed the problem of complex dynamics. In the
following, I will focus on implications of structural, functional and algorithmic
complexity. Within a centralized super-computing approach we can only solve those
optimization problems, which have sufficiently low algorithmic complexity. But
many problems are “NP-hard”, i.e. computationally so demanding that they cannot be
handled in real-time even with today’s super-computing. This problem is particularly
acute in systems that are characterized by a large variability. In such cases, top-down
control can often not reach optimal results. In a later chapter, I will illustrate this by
the example of traffic light control.
Given the quick increase in computing power, couldn’t we overcome this challenge
in future? The surprising answer is “no”. While the processing power doubles every
18 months (blue curve in Fig. 4.1), the amount of data doubles even every 12 months
(green curve), and the growth rate will further increase.
48 This implies that we are
47 U.S. torture techniques unethical, ineffective (January 6, 2011), http://www.livescience.com/
9209-study-torture-techniquesunethical-ineffective.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective
ness_of_torture_for_interrogation and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/11/cia-harsh-interr
ogations_n_5130218.html; The Guardian, US drone attacks ‘counter-productive’, former Obama
security adviser claims (January 7, 2013), http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/07/obamaadviser-criticises-drone-policy; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/21/us-drone-strikes-ine
ffective_n_3313407.html; The NSA isn’t just spying on us, it’s also undermining Internet security
(April 30, 2014), http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/the-nsa-isn-t-just-spying-on-us-it-s-alsoundermining-internet-security-20140429; http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/31/
usa_freedom_act_update_how_the_nsa_hurts_our_economy_cybersecurity_and_foreign.html.
48 Helbing [10].