2.6 Large-Scale Power Blackouts
23
2.6 Large-Scale Power Blackouts
On November 4, 2006, a power line was temporarily turned off in Ems, Germany, to
facilitate the transfer of a Norwegian ship. Within minutes, this caused a blackout in
many regions all over Europe, from Germany to Portugal! Nobody expected this to
happen. Before the line was switched off, a computer simulation predicted that the
power grid would still operate well without the line. However, the scenario analysis
did not account for the possibility that another line would spontaneously fail. In the
end, a local overload in Northwest Germany triggered emergency switch-offs all over
Europe, creating a cascade effect with pretty astonishing results. Blackouts occurred
in regions thousands of kilometers away.
15
Can we ever hope to understand such strange behavior? In fact, a computer-based
simulation study of the European power grid recently managed to reproduce quite
similar effects.
16 It demonstrated that the failure of a few network nodes in Spain
could create an unexpected blackout several thousand kilometers away in Eastern
Europe, while the electricity network in Spain would still work.
17 Furthermore,
increasing the capacity of certain parts of the power grid could worsen the situation
and cause an even greater blackout. Therefore, weak elements in the system may serve
an important function: they can be “circuit breakers” interrupting the failure cascade.
This is an important fact to remember.
2.7 From Bankruptcy Cascades to Financial Crisis
The sudden financial meltdown in 2008 is another example of a crisis that hit
many companies and people by surprise. In a presidential address to the American
Economic Association in 2003, Robert Lucas (*1937) said:
“[The] central problem of depression-prevention has been solved.”
Similarly, Ben Bernanke (*1953), the former chairman of the Federal Reserve
Board, held a longstanding belief that the economy was both well understood and
in sound financial shape. In September 2007, Ric Mishkin (*1951), a professor at
Columbia Business School and then a member of the Board of Governors of the US
Federal Reserve System, made another interesting statement, reflecting widespread
beliefs at this time:
15 While other areas close to the region of initial overload were not affected at all.
16 Asztalos et al. [10].
17 See http://www.plosone.org/article/fetchSingleRepresentation.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/jou
rnal.pone.0084563.s005.
23
2.6 Large-Scale Power Blackouts
On November 4, 2006, a power line was temporarily turned off in Ems, Germany, to
facilitate the transfer of a Norwegian ship. Within minutes, this caused a blackout in
many regions all over Europe, from Germany to Portugal! Nobody expected this to
happen. Before the line was switched off, a computer simulation predicted that the
power grid would still operate well without the line. However, the scenario analysis
did not account for the possibility that another line would spontaneously fail. In the
end, a local overload in Northwest Germany triggered emergency switch-offs all over
Europe, creating a cascade effect with pretty astonishing results. Blackouts occurred
in regions thousands of kilometers away.
15
Can we ever hope to understand such strange behavior? In fact, a computer-based
simulation study of the European power grid recently managed to reproduce quite
similar effects.
16 It demonstrated that the failure of a few network nodes in Spain
could create an unexpected blackout several thousand kilometers away in Eastern
Europe, while the electricity network in Spain would still work.
17 Furthermore,
increasing the capacity of certain parts of the power grid could worsen the situation
and cause an even greater blackout. Therefore, weak elements in the system may serve
an important function: they can be “circuit breakers” interrupting the failure cascade.
This is an important fact to remember.
2.7 From Bankruptcy Cascades to Financial Crisis
The sudden financial meltdown in 2008 is another example of a crisis that hit
many companies and people by surprise. In a presidential address to the American
Economic Association in 2003, Robert Lucas (*1937) said:
“[The] central problem of depression-prevention has been solved.”
Similarly, Ben Bernanke (*1953), the former chairman of the Federal Reserve
Board, held a longstanding belief that the economy was both well understood and
in sound financial shape. In September 2007, Ric Mishkin (*1951), a professor at
Columbia Business School and then a member of the Board of Governors of the US
Federal Reserve System, made another interesting statement, reflecting widespread
beliefs at this time:
15 While other areas close to the region of initial overload were not affected at all.
16 Asztalos et al. [10].
17 See http://www.plosone.org/article/fetchSingleRepresentation.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/jou
rnal.pone.0084563.s005.