22
2 Complexity Time Bomb
with death penalty).
11 A closer inspection shows that many crimes correlate with the
circumstances individuals find themselves in. For example, group dynamics often
plays an important role. Many scientific studies also show that the socio-economic
conditions are a strong determining factor of crime. Therefore, in order to counter
crime, it might be more effective to change these socio-economic conditions rather
than sending more people to jail. I say this with one eye on the price we have to pay
to maintain a large prison population—a single prisoner costs more than the salary of
a postdoctoral researcher with a Ph.D. degree! It worries even more that prisons and
containment camps have apparently become places where criminal organizations are
formed and terrorist plots are planned.
12 In fact, our own studies suggest that many
crimes spread by imitation.
13
2.5 Cascading Effects in Complex Networks
To make matters worse, besides the dynamic instability caused by amplification
effects, complex dynamical systems may produce even bigger problems. Worldwide
trade, air traffic, the Internet, mobile phones, and social media have made everything much more convenient—and connected. This has created many new opportunities, but everything now depends on a lot more things. What are the implications
of this increased level of interdependency? Today, a single tweet can make stock
markets spin. A controversial Youtube video can trigger a riot that kills dozens of
people.
14 Increasingly, our decisions can have consequences on the other side of the
globe, many of which may be unintended. For example, the rapid spread of emerging
epidemics is largely a result of the scale of global air traffic today, and this has serious
repercussions for global health, social welfare and economic systems.
It is being said that “the road to hell is paved with good intentions”. By networking
our world, have we inadvertently created conditions in which disasters are more
likely to emerge and spread? In 2011 alone, at least three cascading failures with
global impact were happening, thereby changing the face of the world and the global
balance of power: The world economic crisis, the Arab spring and the combination
of an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster in Japan. In 2014, the world
was threatened by the spread of Ebola, the crisis in Ukraine, and the conflict with
the Islamic State (IS). In the following subsections, I will therefore discuss some
examples of cascade effects in more detail.
11 Wilfling [8].
12 Tagesanzeiger (December 11, 2014) «Boxershorts halfen uns, den Krieg zu gewinnen», http://
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ausland/naher-osten-und-afrika/Boxershorts-halfen-uns-den-Krieg-zu-gew
innen/story/20444791.
13 Perc et al. [9].
14 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_Innocence_of_Muslims.
2 Complexity Time Bomb
with death penalty).
11 A closer inspection shows that many crimes correlate with the
circumstances individuals find themselves in. For example, group dynamics often
plays an important role. Many scientific studies also show that the socio-economic
conditions are a strong determining factor of crime. Therefore, in order to counter
crime, it might be more effective to change these socio-economic conditions rather
than sending more people to jail. I say this with one eye on the price we have to pay
to maintain a large prison population—a single prisoner costs more than the salary of
a postdoctoral researcher with a Ph.D. degree! It worries even more that prisons and
containment camps have apparently become places where criminal organizations are
formed and terrorist plots are planned.
12 In fact, our own studies suggest that many
crimes spread by imitation.
13
2.5 Cascading Effects in Complex Networks
To make matters worse, besides the dynamic instability caused by amplification
effects, complex dynamical systems may produce even bigger problems. Worldwide
trade, air traffic, the Internet, mobile phones, and social media have made everything much more convenient—and connected. This has created many new opportunities, but everything now depends on a lot more things. What are the implications
of this increased level of interdependency? Today, a single tweet can make stock
markets spin. A controversial Youtube video can trigger a riot that kills dozens of
people.
14 Increasingly, our decisions can have consequences on the other side of the
globe, many of which may be unintended. For example, the rapid spread of emerging
epidemics is largely a result of the scale of global air traffic today, and this has serious
repercussions for global health, social welfare and economic systems.
It is being said that “the road to hell is paved with good intentions”. By networking
our world, have we inadvertently created conditions in which disasters are more
likely to emerge and spread? In 2011 alone, at least three cascading failures with
global impact were happening, thereby changing the face of the world and the global
balance of power: The world economic crisis, the Arab spring and the combination
of an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster in Japan. In 2014, the world
was threatened by the spread of Ebola, the crisis in Ukraine, and the conflict with
the Islamic State (IS). In the following subsections, I will therefore discuss some
examples of cascade effects in more detail.
11 Wilfling [8].
12 Tagesanzeiger (December 11, 2014) «Boxershorts halfen uns, den Krieg zu gewinnen», http://
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ausland/naher-osten-und-afrika/Boxershorts-halfen-uns-den-Krieg-zu-gew
innen/story/20444791.
13 Perc et al. [9].
14 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_Innocence_of_Muslims.