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jections (2021–2065) under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5. Climate indicators selected for the
scientific assessments and initial presentation at the stakeholder workshop included
moisture stress, drought stress, erosion risk, total precipitation, flooding and heat
stress. During the stakeholder workshop, participants identified key value-chain
activities, the two key climate risks for each value chain (from the six initially presented to them), magnitude of impact of the risk, underlying vulnerability factors
(for specific groups of people) and who is most impacted (by geographical scope,
age, gender and economic status). Participants also mapped currently available
adaptation options and identified gaps in in the available options.
20.3 Results
As the main findings were consistent across all four value chains (dairy, poultry,
peas, potato), this chapter presents results from the value chains of one crop (pea)
and one type of livestock (dairy cows).
20.3.1 Effects of Climate Change on Value Chains
Based on the historic and future climate scenarios of the six indicators presented in
the workshop, participants identified drought (represented by the number of consecutive days with moisture stress) and floods (represented by the magnitude of the
wettest one-day event in mm/day) as the most relevant to the pea and dairy value
chains. Historic climate analysis and participant perception agreed that both dry
spells and extreme precipitation have been major hazards in the county. Future climate analyses for Nyandarua project significant increases in moisture stress in both
seasons, as well as an increase in flood risk mostly in the second season (Figs. 20.2
and 20.3).
Based on stakeholder discussions, we also linked the perceived impacts of climate hazards to each stage in the value chain (Fig. 20.4). Drought affects all stages
of the pea and dairy value chains, although in different ways. For example, while the
effect of drought on pea inputs is largely moderate due to a limited availability of
quality seed, the effect of drought on dairy inputs is severe, as it results in reduced
breeding, poor quantity and quality of pasture and fodder, and increased costs in
buying feed. In terms of the production stage, droughts severely affect both pea and
dairy: peas suffer from low germination rates, hardened soils and increased incidence of pests and diseases; dairy cattle become emaciated and lose resistance to
pests and diseases. In the dairy value chain, stakeholders perceive major to severe
impacts from drought, which affects the harvesting, storage and processing stage.
Drought also contributes to milk spoilage and increases operational costs in the collection and bulking of milk. Similarly, low levels of milk production can limit
farmers’ access to markets. Drought most adversely affects production activities in
C. Mwongera et al.
jections (2021–2065) under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5. Climate indicators selected for the
scientific assessments and initial presentation at the stakeholder workshop included
moisture stress, drought stress, erosion risk, total precipitation, flooding and heat
stress. During the stakeholder workshop, participants identified key value-chain
activities, the two key climate risks for each value chain (from the six initially presented to them), magnitude of impact of the risk, underlying vulnerability factors
(for specific groups of people) and who is most impacted (by geographical scope,
age, gender and economic status). Participants also mapped currently available
adaptation options and identified gaps in in the available options.
20.3 Results
As the main findings were consistent across all four value chains (dairy, poultry,
peas, potato), this chapter presents results from the value chains of one crop (pea)
and one type of livestock (dairy cows).
20.3.1 Effects of Climate Change on Value Chains
Based on the historic and future climate scenarios of the six indicators presented in
the workshop, participants identified drought (represented by the number of consecutive days with moisture stress) and floods (represented by the magnitude of the
wettest one-day event in mm/day) as the most relevant to the pea and dairy value
chains. Historic climate analysis and participant perception agreed that both dry
spells and extreme precipitation have been major hazards in the county. Future climate analyses for Nyandarua project significant increases in moisture stress in both
seasons, as well as an increase in flood risk mostly in the second season (Figs. 20.2
and 20.3).
Based on stakeholder discussions, we also linked the perceived impacts of climate hazards to each stage in the value chain (Fig. 20.4). Drought affects all stages
of the pea and dairy value chains, although in different ways. For example, while the
effect of drought on pea inputs is largely moderate due to a limited availability of
quality seed, the effect of drought on dairy inputs is severe, as it results in reduced
breeding, poor quantity and quality of pasture and fodder, and increased costs in
buying feed. In terms of the production stage, droughts severely affect both pea and
dairy: peas suffer from low germination rates, hardened soils and increased incidence of pests and diseases; dairy cattle become emaciated and lose resistance to
pests and diseases. In the dairy value chain, stakeholders perceive major to severe
impacts from drought, which affects the harvesting, storage and processing stage.
Drought also contributes to milk spoilage and increases operational costs in the collection and bulking of milk. Similarly, low levels of milk production can limit
farmers’ access to markets. Drought most adversely affects production activities in
C. Mwongera et al.