(Mersmann et al. 2014). It has been labeled with ideas about which type of activities
seem promising in each phase if a donor would like to support intentional transformational changes. In our particular case these have been climate mitigation and
adaptation strategies with transformational impacts.
The basic message behind this phase concept is that stable systems, i.e., those
whose path dependencies work in smooth dynamic alignment, will be immune to
any attempts at transformational change. Their form is well supported by ongoing,
often slightly adaptive activities that maintain stability. Only through increasing
irritations do the alignments become brittle enough to provide space for more
radical changes: those that challenge this form.
Such irritations can be new challenging knowledge (e.g., on climatic change),
growing niche activities (e.g., around new renewable energy technologies), or
emerging landscape changes (e.g., increasing droughts and floods). If these prevail
despite adaptive calibrations, the alignments eventually stop running smoothly—
hence the term tipping points. These tipping points are highly political because they
mean that the feasibility, support and legitimacy of the old form has ceased, so
struggles about what should replace it are intense. This replacement outcome could
be a transformed one that embeds a new system goal or purpose—but could also be
re-formed to accommodate some of the irritations but stay on a similar development
trajectory. The multi-phase graph encapsulates this view: only with significant
changes of path dependencies on the regime level will there be lasting transformations of the system’s dynamics.
The thick purple line should not give the impression that the phases are
unfolding in a linear fashion. Transformations are a rocky and highly contested ride.
This graph is a gross simplified model of what would, in reality, zigzag considerably if viewed in more detail. The energy transition in Germany is a good
example of how this simplified sequencing can help understand and inform the
intentional transformation of large systems. The following provides a rough tour
through important developments over the last few decades and groups them
according to the phases. It also shows that all dimensions of path dependencies
from cultural to technological are playing a role.
The important landmarks indicating the rising awareness in Germany that energy
systems would need to be transformed were the 1970s oil crises and the reports
about limits to the exploitation of natural resources. These first regime crises were
reined in but the sociocultural anchoring of the awareness that a fossil energy
development path was contested and risky prevailed. This fed into an already
ongoing anti-nuclear movement that led to the creation of The Greens as a political
party. The Greens got enough votes to enter the German parliament, the Bundestag,
in 1983 and the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster worked like an
accelerating shock from the landscape level for its political agenda. Environmental
concerns became much more mainstream.
Meanwhile, from the early 1980s onward, technological developments slowly
but surely made the idea of significant renewable energy production seem feasible.
Niche players acted in a pre-development phase under favorable civil society and
public discourse conditions. Some regime pioneers in the political and investment
26
2 What Political Economy Adds to Transformation Research
seem promising in each phase if a donor would like to support intentional transformational changes. In our particular case these have been climate mitigation and
adaptation strategies with transformational impacts.
The basic message behind this phase concept is that stable systems, i.e., those
whose path dependencies work in smooth dynamic alignment, will be immune to
any attempts at transformational change. Their form is well supported by ongoing,
often slightly adaptive activities that maintain stability. Only through increasing
irritations do the alignments become brittle enough to provide space for more
radical changes: those that challenge this form.
Such irritations can be new challenging knowledge (e.g., on climatic change),
growing niche activities (e.g., around new renewable energy technologies), or
emerging landscape changes (e.g., increasing droughts and floods). If these prevail
despite adaptive calibrations, the alignments eventually stop running smoothly—
hence the term tipping points. These tipping points are highly political because they
mean that the feasibility, support and legitimacy of the old form has ceased, so
struggles about what should replace it are intense. This replacement outcome could
be a transformed one that embeds a new system goal or purpose—but could also be
re-formed to accommodate some of the irritations but stay on a similar development
trajectory. The multi-phase graph encapsulates this view: only with significant
changes of path dependencies on the regime level will there be lasting transformations of the system’s dynamics.
The thick purple line should not give the impression that the phases are
unfolding in a linear fashion. Transformations are a rocky and highly contested ride.
This graph is a gross simplified model of what would, in reality, zigzag considerably if viewed in more detail. The energy transition in Germany is a good
example of how this simplified sequencing can help understand and inform the
intentional transformation of large systems. The following provides a rough tour
through important developments over the last few decades and groups them
according to the phases. It also shows that all dimensions of path dependencies
from cultural to technological are playing a role.
The important landmarks indicating the rising awareness in Germany that energy
systems would need to be transformed were the 1970s oil crises and the reports
about limits to the exploitation of natural resources. These first regime crises were
reined in but the sociocultural anchoring of the awareness that a fossil energy
development path was contested and risky prevailed. This fed into an already
ongoing anti-nuclear movement that led to the creation of The Greens as a political
party. The Greens got enough votes to enter the German parliament, the Bundestag,
in 1983 and the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster worked like an
accelerating shock from the landscape level for its political agenda. Environmental
concerns became much more mainstream.
Meanwhile, from the early 1980s onward, technological developments slowly
but surely made the idea of significant renewable energy production seem feasible.
Niche players acted in a pre-development phase under favorable civil society and
public discourse conditions. Some regime pioneers in the political and investment
26
2 What Political Economy Adds to Transformation Research