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energy users and GHG emitters but omit the energy and emissions embodied in the
stocks. However, for the developing world to converge on the quality of life enjoyed
in the industrialised world by 2050, there will need to be a signifi cant increase in the
material and monetary quantity of infrastructure stocks. If we are to use current
energy sources and technology to construct them, this must lead to a large carbon
impost.
To estimate the GHG emissions from the materials needed in such a development
scenario, Müller et al. ( 2013 ) used data on the key materials of steel, aluminium and
cement (other materials having either less associated emissions or less importance
in infrastructure stocks). They found that current CRV P is similar for most industrialised countries at a level of about 50 t CO 2 per capita. Assuming a population
growth from currently 6.8 to 9.3 billion, the direct material requirement for infrastructure and other assets needed to maintain or improve human welfare would
involve an indirect carbon footprint CRV P = 350 Gt CO 2 (see Fig. 6.3 ). The cumulative emissions during the 2000–2050 time period cannot exceed 1000−1440 Gt
CO 2 , if we are to have a 75 % or 50 % probability of limiting warming to less than
2 °C, respectively (Meinshausen et al. 2009 ). About 420 Gt of this amount has
already been emitted between 2000 and 2011 ( IPCC 2014a ) which leaves an emissions budget of approximately 600–1000 Gt CO 2 for the period from 2012 to 2050.
Just the emissions embedded in the stock yet to be built therefore constitute 35–60 %
of the remaining carbon budget, provided developing countries invest in built environment stocks similar to industrialised countries and use currently available technology. This leaves precious little in the carbon budget for using the stock and
emissions beyond 2050.
There is a premise to these calculations that should be acknowledged that achieving Western-style infrastructure stock is a desirable endpoint of sustainable development and that obtaining the same level of services from infrastructure and in-use
stocks involves the same intensity of resource use as seen currently in the developed
world. The former assumption is certainly debateable in terms of environmental
sustainability, and the latter is not necessarily the case as, quite apart from probable
technical improvements, it is possible to realise a better quality of life without the
need for a high-income, high impact society. As a model for this, there is a group of
countries in the so-called Goldemberg corner that have relatively high income and
long average life expectancy with low-carbon lifestyles (Steinberger et al. 2012 ).
The salient point, however, is the signifi cant trade-off between the aims of sustainable development and climate change mitigation. The very poor access to basic
infrastructure in developing nations is untenable. If we are to alleviate this situation,
then industrial development and urbanisation in these countries will dominate
growth in infrastructure construction for several decades; this will increase global
material demand and thereby produce GHG emissions.
Problem shifting is not limited to the issues of developing nations. While attempting to depress the carbon intensity of production and consumption, we face increasing material demands, sometimes for critical materials. Hence, it is important in any
scenario analysis of climate change mitigation to include materials and anticipated
large-scale in-use stocks of materials.
6 A Socio-economic Metabolism Approach to Sustainable Development and Climate…
energy users and GHG emitters but omit the energy and emissions embodied in the
stocks. However, for the developing world to converge on the quality of life enjoyed
in the industrialised world by 2050, there will need to be a signifi cant increase in the
material and monetary quantity of infrastructure stocks. If we are to use current
energy sources and technology to construct them, this must lead to a large carbon
impost.
To estimate the GHG emissions from the materials needed in such a development
scenario, Müller et al. ( 2013 ) used data on the key materials of steel, aluminium and
cement (other materials having either less associated emissions or less importance
in infrastructure stocks). They found that current CRV P is similar for most industrialised countries at a level of about 50 t CO 2 per capita. Assuming a population
growth from currently 6.8 to 9.3 billion, the direct material requirement for infrastructure and other assets needed to maintain or improve human welfare would
involve an indirect carbon footprint CRV P = 350 Gt CO 2 (see Fig. 6.3 ). The cumulative emissions during the 2000–2050 time period cannot exceed 1000−1440 Gt
CO 2 , if we are to have a 75 % or 50 % probability of limiting warming to less than
2 °C, respectively (Meinshausen et al. 2009 ). About 420 Gt of this amount has
already been emitted between 2000 and 2011 ( IPCC 2014a ) which leaves an emissions budget of approximately 600–1000 Gt CO 2 for the period from 2012 to 2050.
Just the emissions embedded in the stock yet to be built therefore constitute 35–60 %
of the remaining carbon budget, provided developing countries invest in built environment stocks similar to industrialised countries and use currently available technology. This leaves precious little in the carbon budget for using the stock and
emissions beyond 2050.
There is a premise to these calculations that should be acknowledged that achieving Western-style infrastructure stock is a desirable endpoint of sustainable development and that obtaining the same level of services from infrastructure and in-use
stocks involves the same intensity of resource use as seen currently in the developed
world. The former assumption is certainly debateable in terms of environmental
sustainability, and the latter is not necessarily the case as, quite apart from probable
technical improvements, it is possible to realise a better quality of life without the
need for a high-income, high impact society. As a model for this, there is a group of
countries in the so-called Goldemberg corner that have relatively high income and
long average life expectancy with low-carbon lifestyles (Steinberger et al. 2012 ).
The salient point, however, is the signifi cant trade-off between the aims of sustainable development and climate change mitigation. The very poor access to basic
infrastructure in developing nations is untenable. If we are to alleviate this situation,
then industrial development and urbanisation in these countries will dominate
growth in infrastructure construction for several decades; this will increase global
material demand and thereby produce GHG emissions.
Problem shifting is not limited to the issues of developing nations. While attempting to depress the carbon intensity of production and consumption, we face increasing material demands, sometimes for critical materials. Hence, it is important in any
scenario analysis of climate change mitigation to include materials and anticipated
large-scale in-use stocks of materials.
6 A Socio-economic Metabolism Approach to Sustainable Development and Climate…