192
uncertainty are the exception rather than the rule in chemicals policy, and traditional
requirements of establishing comprehensive risk assessments before restrictions can
be decided are strong (cf. Karlsson and Gilek 2016 ).
In summary, there are clear differences in how uncertainty and disagreements are
dealt with (precautionary or not) in the environmental and the market spheres of
chemicals policy, respectively. Science-policy interfaces are hence still far from
mature and well coordinated and the deep uncertainty in this governance domain is
not addressed rationally. In addition, there are no (standing) forums where stakeholders regularly can meet and discuss these issues and how best to handle
disagreements.
8.3.2.5 Oil Discharges Linked to Marine Transportation
The short- and long-term ecosystem effects of oil discharges depend on a variety of
factors including the season and weather, type and quantity of oil spilled, habitat,
type of shoreline as well as the tidal energy and type of waves in the area of the spill
(e.g. Rousi and Kankaanpää 2012 ). Consequently, there is a substantial degree of
scientifi c uncertainty linked to the assessment of ecosystem risks of oil discharges.
However, this type of scientifi c uncertainty on ecosystem impacts is not of substantial importance for assessment-management interactions in this case (Hassler et al.
2010 ). That oil discharges are dangerous for the marine environment and should be
avoided as much as possible within reasonable economic limits is not contested.
7
The main issues of assessment-management interactions relating to oil spills rather
concern ( 1 ) what the actual probabilities and prevalence of oil discharges are (i.e.
mainly monitoring and surveillance activities) and ( 2 ) how the probability, extent
and prevalence of oil spills can be reduced through improved technological safety,
reductions in human errors and improved management measures to reduce intentional oil discharges. Consequently, compared with risks such as chemical pollution , the risks of oil discharge and uncertainty-related challenges concerning them
are not as severe in the context of the Baltic Sea, barring a few exceptions.
First, there is still a lack of aerial and satellite data of intentional oil discharges
for monitoring and surveillance purposes in spite of a well-developed system for
monitoring of larger vessels through the HELCOM AIS system (Hassler et al.
2010 ). This uncertainty linked to surveillance and monitoring impedes a comprehensive assessment of the prevalence of oil discharges (especially intentional
discharges), as well as complicates attempts to enforce and monitor the effi ciency
of management strategies (such as the above-mentioned HELCOM no-special-fee
system ) (Hassler et al. 2010 ; Hassler 2011 ).
Second, regarding safety improvements, there is scientifi c uncertainty linked to
issues concerning the feasibility and cost-effi ciency of various technical solutions.
7 It can also be argued that the PSSA (particularly sensitive sea area) classifi cation of the Baltic Sea
by the IMO shows that there is an agreement (and substantial scientifi c knowledge) that the Baltic
Sea is particularly sensitive to, e.g., oil discharges.
S. Linke et al.
uncertainty are the exception rather than the rule in chemicals policy, and traditional
requirements of establishing comprehensive risk assessments before restrictions can
be decided are strong (cf. Karlsson and Gilek 2016 ).
In summary, there are clear differences in how uncertainty and disagreements are
dealt with (precautionary or not) in the environmental and the market spheres of
chemicals policy, respectively. Science-policy interfaces are hence still far from
mature and well coordinated and the deep uncertainty in this governance domain is
not addressed rationally. In addition, there are no (standing) forums where stakeholders regularly can meet and discuss these issues and how best to handle
disagreements.
8.3.2.5 Oil Discharges Linked to Marine Transportation
The short- and long-term ecosystem effects of oil discharges depend on a variety of
factors including the season and weather, type and quantity of oil spilled, habitat,
type of shoreline as well as the tidal energy and type of waves in the area of the spill
(e.g. Rousi and Kankaanpää 2012 ). Consequently, there is a substantial degree of
scientifi c uncertainty linked to the assessment of ecosystem risks of oil discharges.
However, this type of scientifi c uncertainty on ecosystem impacts is not of substantial importance for assessment-management interactions in this case (Hassler et al.
2010 ). That oil discharges are dangerous for the marine environment and should be
avoided as much as possible within reasonable economic limits is not contested.
7
The main issues of assessment-management interactions relating to oil spills rather
concern ( 1 ) what the actual probabilities and prevalence of oil discharges are (i.e.
mainly monitoring and surveillance activities) and ( 2 ) how the probability, extent
and prevalence of oil spills can be reduced through improved technological safety,
reductions in human errors and improved management measures to reduce intentional oil discharges. Consequently, compared with risks such as chemical pollution , the risks of oil discharge and uncertainty-related challenges concerning them
are not as severe in the context of the Baltic Sea, barring a few exceptions.
First, there is still a lack of aerial and satellite data of intentional oil discharges
for monitoring and surveillance purposes in spite of a well-developed system for
monitoring of larger vessels through the HELCOM AIS system (Hassler et al.
2010 ). This uncertainty linked to surveillance and monitoring impedes a comprehensive assessment of the prevalence of oil discharges (especially intentional
discharges), as well as complicates attempts to enforce and monitor the effi ciency
of management strategies (such as the above-mentioned HELCOM no-special-fee
system ) (Hassler et al. 2010 ; Hassler 2011 ).
Second, regarding safety improvements, there is scientifi c uncertainty linked to
issues concerning the feasibility and cost-effi ciency of various technical solutions.
7 It can also be argued that the PSSA (particularly sensitive sea area) classifi cation of the Baltic Sea
by the IMO shows that there is an agreement (and substantial scientifi c knowledge) that the Baltic
Sea is particularly sensitive to, e.g., oil discharges.
S. Linke et al.