249
Table 15.2 Biofuel diffusion scenario for this study (Crude oil equivalent)
2015
2025
2035
Assumption of fuel demand for
transportation
Current demand
(86,000,000 kl) gasoline
(53,400,000 kl) diesel
(32,600,000 kl)
80 % of the current demand
gasoline (42,720,000 kl) diesel
(26,080,000 kl)
50% of current demand gasoline
(26,700,000 kl) diesel (16,300,000 kl)
Bioethanol
Assumption of
bioethanol usage
Based on the target set by
the Ministry of Economy,
Trade, and Industry in
2010, the amount of
bioethanol usage is
assumed to increase from
210,000 kl crude oil eq. in
2011 by 60,000 kl crude
oil eq. per year by
promoting E3- and
ETBT-added gasoline
The amount of bioethanol usage is
assumed to continuously increase
by 60,000 kl crude oil eq. every
year from 210,000 kl crude oil eq.
in 2011 by promoting E3-, E10-,
and ETBT-added gasoline.
(380,000 kl + 60,000 kl/year ×
10 years = 980,000 kl)
The amount of bioethanol usage is
assumed to continuously increase by
60,000 kl eq. crude oil every year from
210,000 kl crude oil eq. in 2011 by
promoting E10- and ETBT-added
gasoline. (980,000 kl + 60,000 kl/year
× 10 years = 1,580,000 kl)
Amount of
bioethanol usage
a, b
656,000 kl (380,000 kl)
1,692,000 kl (980,000 kl)
2,850,000 kl (1,580,000 kl)
Domestic
production
50,000 kl (30,000 kl)
950,000 kl (550,000 kl)
Ensure 2,850,000 kl not only by
domestic bioethanol but also by imports
from Brazil and Asian countries
Import
606,000 kl (350,000 kl)
742,000 kl (430,000 kl)
(continued)
15 National Strategy Options for Japan