227
biofuels will compete for water as well as land. Water availability is a key global
challenge (UNEP 2007) which is particularly severe for Asia (Kataoka and Shrestha
2010; de Fraiture et al. 2008). So future biofuel plans and targets will need to clearly
indicate where the water will come from.
Therefore, it might be manageable to replace up to 10% of gasoline and diesel,
although even this may be limited by sustainability constraints. However, there
appear to be strong physical limitations to going much beyond this.
Of course, this calculation assumes the extrapolation of current technologies and
production methods and does not take into account the possibility of yield or other
productivity increases, so it may overestimate the amount of feedstock needed.
Nevertheless, it is clear that productivity increases would have to be very substantial in
order to make much of a difference. It may not be very realistic to expect this. The FAO
cautions that while there is some room to increase crop yields, this involves certain
environmental risks which would involve some difficulties in managing (FAO 2011).
14.3 Potential to Expand Biofuel Production in East Asia
In recent years, a number of Asian countries have established mandates or targets
for biofuel use, as well as corresponding promotion policies. These targets have
ranged from modest to ambitious as can be seen from Tables 14.3 and 14.4. China
and India (bioethanol) and Indonesia and Malaysia (biodiesel) have been producing
a significant amount of biofuels. Other countries in East Asia such as the Philippines
(biodiesel), Thailand, and Vietnam (ethanol) also have been increasing their biofuel
production, although the scale still remains modest. Most countries have found it
very difficult to meet their targets due to difficulties in expanding production.
To what extent is it realistic to expect that countries might be able to meet their
targets or otherwise significantly expand biofuel production, even aside from sustainability criteria? Assessing the physical potential for expansion of biofuel production is a very difficult exercise, since there is insufficient data in many cases. In
particular, the reliability of land availability data is often questionable.
In most Asian countries, most land is already being used, or is a forest, or may
not be very productive. Strong demand for biofuels will likely cause a shift in land
use from food energy crops and may eventually cause deforestation. Although feedstock production technologies are advancing, there is limit to how much yields can
increase. The use of agricultural waste has been suggested as a source of additional
biofuel production, but this is sometimes already being used for other purposes or is
providing ecosystem services. Collection of these wastes may be difficult or uneconomic. The use of marginal lands to grow nonfood crops that need little water such
as Jatropha and others has also been suggested. However, while it is possible to
grow crops such as Jatropha on wastelands with little water, yields will be low, and
costs will be high if they are not irrigated or provided with fertilizer or planted on
more fertile land. Moreover, marginal lands, sometimes called “wastelands,” actually often are used by poor people with insecure land use rights.
14 A Regional Perspective on Biofuels in Asia
biofuels will compete for water as well as land. Water availability is a key global
challenge (UNEP 2007) which is particularly severe for Asia (Kataoka and Shrestha
2010; de Fraiture et al. 2008). So future biofuel plans and targets will need to clearly
indicate where the water will come from.
Therefore, it might be manageable to replace up to 10% of gasoline and diesel,
although even this may be limited by sustainability constraints. However, there
appear to be strong physical limitations to going much beyond this.
Of course, this calculation assumes the extrapolation of current technologies and
production methods and does not take into account the possibility of yield or other
productivity increases, so it may overestimate the amount of feedstock needed.
Nevertheless, it is clear that productivity increases would have to be very substantial in
order to make much of a difference. It may not be very realistic to expect this. The FAO
cautions that while there is some room to increase crop yields, this involves certain
environmental risks which would involve some difficulties in managing (FAO 2011).
14.3 Potential to Expand Biofuel Production in East Asia
In recent years, a number of Asian countries have established mandates or targets
for biofuel use, as well as corresponding promotion policies. These targets have
ranged from modest to ambitious as can be seen from Tables 14.3 and 14.4. China
and India (bioethanol) and Indonesia and Malaysia (biodiesel) have been producing
a significant amount of biofuels. Other countries in East Asia such as the Philippines
(biodiesel), Thailand, and Vietnam (ethanol) also have been increasing their biofuel
production, although the scale still remains modest. Most countries have found it
very difficult to meet their targets due to difficulties in expanding production.
To what extent is it realistic to expect that countries might be able to meet their
targets or otherwise significantly expand biofuel production, even aside from sustainability criteria? Assessing the physical potential for expansion of biofuel production is a very difficult exercise, since there is insufficient data in many cases. In
particular, the reliability of land availability data is often questionable.
In most Asian countries, most land is already being used, or is a forest, or may
not be very productive. Strong demand for biofuels will likely cause a shift in land
use from food energy crops and may eventually cause deforestation. Although feedstock production technologies are advancing, there is limit to how much yields can
increase. The use of agricultural waste has been suggested as a source of additional
biofuel production, but this is sometimes already being used for other purposes or is
providing ecosystem services. Collection of these wastes may be difficult or uneconomic. The use of marginal lands to grow nonfood crops that need little water such
as Jatropha and others has also been suggested. However, while it is possible to
grow crops such as Jatropha on wastelands with little water, yields will be low, and
costs will be high if they are not irrigated or provided with fertilizer or planted on
more fertile land. Moreover, marginal lands, sometimes called “wastelands,” actually often are used by poor people with insecure land use rights.
14 A Regional Perspective on Biofuels in Asia