38
and future climate. As could be noted significant increase is projected during summer
season, followed by spring and autumn.
1.3.5.4 Conclusion
The future scenarios constructed through the statistical downscaling scheme applied
to several GCMs show a possible increase in the seasonal minimum and maximum
temperature over Bologna, around 2 °C over the period 2021–2050 with respect to
1961–1990. The signal is more intense during summer (around 2.5 °C the central
moment of the distribution) when an increase of the frequency of heat waves is
projected. The results are in agreement with those obtained by the regional climate
models (Van der Linden and Mitchell 2009).
Acknowledgement The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was funded by the EU FP6
Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539) whose support is gratefully
acknowledged.
Open Access This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, duplication, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, a link is provided to the Creative Commons
license and any changes made are indicated.
Scenario of heat wave duration index at Bologna
station, outputs of the SDs- Ensemble Mean, scenario
A1B, present climate(1961-1990) and 2021-2050
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
DGF
MAM
GLA
SON seasons
climate 1961-1990
HWD(days)
hwd_2021-2050
Fig. 1.24 Ensemble Mean (EM) of seasonal heat waves projected at Bologna station (CCAReg
model), scenario A1B, 2021–2050 and present climate (1961–1990)
J. Fallmann et al.
and future climate. As could be noted significant increase is projected during summer
season, followed by spring and autumn.
1.3.5.4 Conclusion
The future scenarios constructed through the statistical downscaling scheme applied
to several GCMs show a possible increase in the seasonal minimum and maximum
temperature over Bologna, around 2 °C over the period 2021–2050 with respect to
1961–1990. The signal is more intense during summer (around 2.5 °C the central
moment of the distribution) when an increase of the frequency of heat waves is
projected. The results are in agreement with those obtained by the regional climate
models (Van der Linden and Mitchell 2009).
Acknowledgement The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was funded by the EU FP6
Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539) whose support is gratefully
acknowledged.
Open Access This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, duplication, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, a link is provided to the Creative Commons
license and any changes made are indicated.
Scenario of heat wave duration index at Bologna
station, outputs of the SDs- Ensemble Mean, scenario
A1B, present climate(1961-1990) and 2021-2050
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
DGF
MAM
GLA
SON seasons
climate 1961-1990
HWD(days)
hwd_2021-2050
Fig. 1.24 Ensemble Mean (EM) of seasonal heat waves projected at Bologna station (CCAReg
model), scenario A1B, 2021–2050 and present climate (1961–1990)
J. Fallmann et al.