70
J. Hoffmann
4.4 Conclusions and the Need for Further Research
An analysis of the literature revealed that there are virtually no sources that contained
findings or allowed conclusions to be derived regarding the direct impacts of demographic change on land-use change. This is especially true of the agriculture, forestry,
tourism, and nature conservation sectors. The one exception was settlement and transportation areas, since research (including some empirical studies) has been conducted
on the correlation between population trends and settlement expansion. Otherwise,
findings regarding the impacts of demographic change on land use were based on
more or less substantiated analytical arguments. It is possible that this finding is due
to a time lag, i.e., that demographic changes already in progress have not yet made a
sufficiently visible or tangible impact on certain land-use groups or types for society
(or the literature, in this case) to have become aware of them.
In view of the complexity of spatial dynamics, it is difficult to isolate and examine
individually the components of demographic change that are causal factors in landuse change. Clear cause-and-effect relationships cannot be established with any great
certainty. Demographic factors have nonspecific effects and overlap with other influences on land use, such as economic trends, climate change, scarcity of resources, or
institutional influences such as policy objectives. These influences may strengthen,
neutralize, or even reverse the impacts of demographic change. In many cases,
it would appear that other factors have—and will continue to have—a considerably stronger influence on developments in land-use patterns than will demographic
factors.
In light of this fact, the findings of the literature under review do not support, or
only marginally support, oversimplified conclusions such as those below (see remarks
made in studies including EEA 2010; BfN and BBSR 2011, 8; Milbert 2013, 45):
• Shrinking populations lead to lower land-use intensities and/or to reduced land
use in certain areas, which in turn opens up options for new or different land-use
types.
• The combination of an aging population and greater cultural diversity causes
changes in demand structures that lead to different land-use types and/or changes
in land-use intensity.
The literature review and the subsequent discussion of its findings at two expert
workshops came to the following conclusions regarding the need for further research:
Lack of empirical data: the absence of empirical evidence for assertions
regarding the impacts of demographic change on land-use sectors proved to be a
major shortcoming, as became clear over the course of the review. Above all, there is
a lack of empirically substantiated, spatially differentiated studies on the correlation
between demographic change and land use.
Comparative, regional case studies: the effects of demographic change vary
from region to region. When combined with other trends and processes, a highly
differentiated spatial structure emerges which is characterized by the coexistence,
on regional and local levels, of both sprawl and decline. Thus research is needed that
J. Hoffmann
4.4 Conclusions and the Need for Further Research
An analysis of the literature revealed that there are virtually no sources that contained
findings or allowed conclusions to be derived regarding the direct impacts of demographic change on land-use change. This is especially true of the agriculture, forestry,
tourism, and nature conservation sectors. The one exception was settlement and transportation areas, since research (including some empirical studies) has been conducted
on the correlation between population trends and settlement expansion. Otherwise,
findings regarding the impacts of demographic change on land use were based on
more or less substantiated analytical arguments. It is possible that this finding is due
to a time lag, i.e., that demographic changes already in progress have not yet made a
sufficiently visible or tangible impact on certain land-use groups or types for society
(or the literature, in this case) to have become aware of them.
In view of the complexity of spatial dynamics, it is difficult to isolate and examine
individually the components of demographic change that are causal factors in landuse change. Clear cause-and-effect relationships cannot be established with any great
certainty. Demographic factors have nonspecific effects and overlap with other influences on land use, such as economic trends, climate change, scarcity of resources, or
institutional influences such as policy objectives. These influences may strengthen,
neutralize, or even reverse the impacts of demographic change. In many cases,
it would appear that other factors have—and will continue to have—a considerably stronger influence on developments in land-use patterns than will demographic
factors.
In light of this fact, the findings of the literature under review do not support, or
only marginally support, oversimplified conclusions such as those below (see remarks
made in studies including EEA 2010; BfN and BBSR 2011, 8; Milbert 2013, 45):
• Shrinking populations lead to lower land-use intensities and/or to reduced land
use in certain areas, which in turn opens up options for new or different land-use
types.
• The combination of an aging population and greater cultural diversity causes
changes in demand structures that lead to different land-use types and/or changes
in land-use intensity.
The literature review and the subsequent discussion of its findings at two expert
workshops came to the following conclusions regarding the need for further research:
Lack of empirical data: the absence of empirical evidence for assertions
regarding the impacts of demographic change on land-use sectors proved to be a
major shortcoming, as became clear over the course of the review. Above all, there is
a lack of empirically substantiated, spatially differentiated studies on the correlation
between demographic change and land use.
Comparative, regional case studies: the effects of demographic change vary
from region to region. When combined with other trends and processes, a highly
differentiated spatial structure emerges which is characterized by the coexistence,
on regional and local levels, of both sprawl and decline. Thus research is needed that