56
The average annual rainfall erosivity for the observation data ranges from 71.7 to
2390.3 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
for the Chirik-Rabat and Shuyldak stations, respectively (Table  5.3). The baseline data shows the rainfall erosivity range of 94.8 to
1838.9 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
in the Akkuduk and Shuyldak stations, respectively.
Table  5.3 exemplifies the validation between rainfall erosivity derived from the
observation data and that reminded from the base data. The comparison of the
observed and baseline R factors yielded 0.81, 0.90, and 156.661 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
and 0.99 for r
2
, r, and RMSE and NSE, respectively, indicating an excellent
model performance for rainfall erosivity prediction for the current and future climates.
The predicted annual rainfall erosivity values from the three GCM projections
were compared with those calculated using the gridded monthly rainfall data
obtained from WorldClim for the baseline period (1960–1990). The rainfall erosivity values derived from the three GCM ensembles vary across the RCP 2.6 and RCP
8.5 compared with the results from the gridded baseline data. The results did not
exhibit a particular trend with regard to increase or decrease as the period increases;
Fig. 5.8 Monthly average precipitation in Kazakhstan in observed, baseline, and different
scenarios
Fig. 5.9 Comparison of the baseline and observed stations for 150 meteorological stations from
Kazhydromet
5 Spatiotemporal Variations and Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density…