53
annual precipitation (Fig. 5.1). The scatter plot (Fig. 5.7) demonstrates the quality
of the simulated dataset compared with the observed dataset for all 150 stations,
with an r
2
of about 0.96. A correlation coefficient of about 0.98 between the simulated and observed monthly precipitations was observed. This indicates that the
simulated baseline precipitation reproduces currently observed precipitation with
considerable accuracy. Table 5.3, Figs. 5.8, and 5.9 show rainfall erosivity (R) for
the observation data for the 150 meteorological stations and the R factor for the
baseline data in the stations.
Fig. 5.7 Scatter plot
between the observed and
baseline average monthly
rainfall
Table 5.2 Rainfall erosivity in 48 years in Kazakhstan and its regions (MJ mm ha
−1 h
−1 year
−1 )
Regions
Years
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std. deviation
Akmola
48
287.1
1023.8
548.8
153.3
Aktobe
46
169.8
567.6
343.2
105.3
Almaty
46
330.6
1220.8
664.8
214.5
Atyrau
46
47.8
317.2
200.1
62.3
East Kazakhstan
46
251.6
766.3
547.0
123.3
Karagandy
48
177.5
618.8
344.4
96.2
Kostanay
48
234.4
870.9
481.4
141.9
Kyzyl-Orda
46
60.9
392.4
129.1
60.9
Mangystau
45
57.7
288.1
142.1
55.7
Pavlodar
46
217.8
669.9
445.7
115.2
Petropavl
48
298.5
978.1
628.1
179.8
South Kazakhstan
45
570.5
1831.1
1064.2
294.3
West Kazakhstan
46
164.6
680.0
404.4
128.2
Zhambyl
45
307.8
1001.5
567.1
181.7
Total
48
298.1
737.3
467.7
92.7
5.3 Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Erosivity
annual precipitation (Fig. 5.1). The scatter plot (Fig. 5.7) demonstrates the quality
of the simulated dataset compared with the observed dataset for all 150 stations,
with an r
2
of about 0.96. A correlation coefficient of about 0.98 between the simulated and observed monthly precipitations was observed. This indicates that the
simulated baseline precipitation reproduces currently observed precipitation with
considerable accuracy. Table 5.3, Figs. 5.8, and 5.9 show rainfall erosivity (R) for
the observation data for the 150 meteorological stations and the R factor for the
baseline data in the stations.
Fig. 5.7 Scatter plot
between the observed and
baseline average monthly
rainfall
Table 5.2 Rainfall erosivity in 48 years in Kazakhstan and its regions (MJ mm ha
−1 h
−1 year
−1 )
Regions
Years
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std. deviation
Akmola
48
287.1
1023.8
548.8
153.3
Aktobe
46
169.8
567.6
343.2
105.3
Almaty
46
330.6
1220.8
664.8
214.5
Atyrau
46
47.8
317.2
200.1
62.3
East Kazakhstan
46
251.6
766.3
547.0
123.3
Karagandy
48
177.5
618.8
344.4
96.2
Kostanay
48
234.4
870.9
481.4
141.9
Kyzyl-Orda
46
60.9
392.4
129.1
60.9
Mangystau
45
57.7
288.1
142.1
55.7
Pavlodar
46
217.8
669.9
445.7
115.2
Petropavl
48
298.5
978.1
628.1
179.8
South Kazakhstan
45
570.5
1831.1
1064.2
294.3
West Kazakhstan
46
164.6
680.0
404.4
128.2
Zhambyl
45
307.8
1001.5
567.1
181.7
Total
48
298.1
737.3
467.7
92.7
5.3 Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Erosivity