43
mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
) are comparable with those of Panagos et al. (2017b), who
reported low-average erosivity values (<250 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
) in Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
In Table 4.7, the average soil erosion is presented per country for two periods and
RCPs. Tajikistan indicated the highest soil erosion, which is a consequence of the
rainfall amount in the Pamir Mountains. The lowest values were observed in
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
Table 4.7 Soil erosion in Central Asia by country. Mean baseline and estimated (t ha
−1 year
−1 ) by
BCCCSM1.1, IPSLCM5ALR, MIROC5, and MPIESMLR with RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission
scenario models. Projected change with regard to baseline (%)
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Baseline (1961–1990)
0.55
16.55
39.45
0.24
2.40
RCP 2.6
(2020–2039)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.59
16.98
38.16
0.22
2.25
Change, %
7.60
2.62
−3.26
−9.14
−6.36
IPSLCM5ALR 0.51
14.36
35.35
0.21
2.06
Change, %
−6.88
−13.21
−10.39
−14.65
−14.35
MIROC5
0.60
19.72
46.41
0.25
2.52
Change, %
9.29
19.18
17.65
5.36
4.58
MPIESMLR
0.56
16.40
38.07
0.24
2.32
Change, %
0.73
−0.91
−3.49
−0.19
−3.36
RCP 2.6
(2060–2079)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.61
17.17
39.54
0.25
2.40
Change, %
10.44
3.74
0.23
4.05
−0.14
IPSLCM5ALR 0.54
14.80
36.81
0.22
2.29
Change, %
−2.89
−10.57
−6.69
−9.34
−4.93
MIROC5
0.62
19.71
46.93
0.23
2.53
Change, %
12.85
19.12
18.98
−4.30
5.24
MPIESMLR
0.62
19.71
46.93
0.23
2.53
Change, %
12.85
19.12
18.98
−4.30
5.24
RCP 8.5
(2020–2039)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.61
17.13
37.80
0.22
2.28
Change, %
9.90
3.52
−4.18
−9.91
−5.32
IPSLCM5ALR 0.50
14.16
34.42
0.21
2.01
Change, %
−9.11
−14.44
−12.74
−11.92
−16.58
MIROC5
0.65
22.34
49.67
0.27
2.74
Change, %
18.06
35.05
25.91
12.25
13.77
MPIESMLR
0.58
19.57
45.37
0.26
2.64
Change, %
5.43
18.28
15.02
7.67
9.77
RCP 8.5
(2060–2079)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.60
14.92
31.32
0.19
2.05
Change, %
9.42
−9.84
−20.60
−19.22
−14.95
IPSLCM5ALR 0.50
11.20
29.76
0.19
1.52
Change, %
−9.87
−32.34
−24.56
−21.63
−36.88
MIROC5
0.69
22.45
49.64
0.26
2.67
Change, %
24.36
35.68
25.84
8.08
11.19
MPIESMLR
0.62
18.49
40.77
0.24
2.43
Change, %
11.51
11.73
3.34
−0.12
1.00
4.6 Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion at the National Level
mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
) are comparable with those of Panagos et al. (2017b), who
reported low-average erosivity values (<250 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
) in Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
In Table 4.7, the average soil erosion is presented per country for two periods and
RCPs. Tajikistan indicated the highest soil erosion, which is a consequence of the
rainfall amount in the Pamir Mountains. The lowest values were observed in
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
Table 4.7 Soil erosion in Central Asia by country. Mean baseline and estimated (t ha
−1 year
−1 ) by
BCCCSM1.1, IPSLCM5ALR, MIROC5, and MPIESMLR with RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission
scenario models. Projected change with regard to baseline (%)
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Baseline (1961–1990)
0.55
16.55
39.45
0.24
2.40
RCP 2.6
(2020–2039)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.59
16.98
38.16
0.22
2.25
Change, %
7.60
2.62
−3.26
−9.14
−6.36
IPSLCM5ALR 0.51
14.36
35.35
0.21
2.06
Change, %
−6.88
−13.21
−10.39
−14.65
−14.35
MIROC5
0.60
19.72
46.41
0.25
2.52
Change, %
9.29
19.18
17.65
5.36
4.58
MPIESMLR
0.56
16.40
38.07
0.24
2.32
Change, %
0.73
−0.91
−3.49
−0.19
−3.36
RCP 2.6
(2060–2079)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.61
17.17
39.54
0.25
2.40
Change, %
10.44
3.74
0.23
4.05
−0.14
IPSLCM5ALR 0.54
14.80
36.81
0.22
2.29
Change, %
−2.89
−10.57
−6.69
−9.34
−4.93
MIROC5
0.62
19.71
46.93
0.23
2.53
Change, %
12.85
19.12
18.98
−4.30
5.24
MPIESMLR
0.62
19.71
46.93
0.23
2.53
Change, %
12.85
19.12
18.98
−4.30
5.24
RCP 8.5
(2020–2039)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.61
17.13
37.80
0.22
2.28
Change, %
9.90
3.52
−4.18
−9.91
−5.32
IPSLCM5ALR 0.50
14.16
34.42
0.21
2.01
Change, %
−9.11
−14.44
−12.74
−11.92
−16.58
MIROC5
0.65
22.34
49.67
0.27
2.74
Change, %
18.06
35.05
25.91
12.25
13.77
MPIESMLR
0.58
19.57
45.37
0.26
2.64
Change, %
5.43
18.28
15.02
7.67
9.77
RCP 8.5
(2060–2079)
BCCCSM-1.1 0.60
14.92
31.32
0.19
2.05
Change, %
9.42
−9.84
−20.60
−19.22
−14.95
IPSLCM5ALR 0.50
11.20
29.76
0.19
1.52
Change, %
−9.87
−32.34
−24.56
−21.63
−36.88
MIROC5
0.69
22.45
49.64
0.26
2.67
Change, %
24.36
35.68
25.84
8.08
11.19
MPIESMLR
0.62
18.49
40.77
0.24
2.43
Change, %
11.51
11.73
3.34
−0.12
1.00
4.6 Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion at the National Level