42
Uzbekistan had an average baseline rainfall erosivity of 282.1 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
. The MIROC5 scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) projected an average
increase ranging from 2.1% to 24.1%, whereas MPIESMLR projected a mean
increase ranging from 7% to 15.3%, except for a decrease of −2.7% for the RCP 2.6
(the 2030s). IPSLCM5ALR projected a decrease in the mean annual rainfall erosivity from −7.7% to 28.2%. In general, all scenarios projected a substantial increase
and decrease in rainfall erosivity over Uzbekistan (Table 4.2). Our results (<280 MJ
Table 4.6 Rainfall erosivity in Central Asia by countries. Mean baseline and estimated (MJ mm
ha
−1 h
−1 year
−1 ) by BCCCSM1.1, IPSLCM5ALR, MIROC5, and MPIESMLR with RCP 2.6 and
RCP 8.5 emission scenario models. Projected change with regard to baseline (%)
Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Baseline (1961–1990)
869.7
374.3
1447.7
188.4
282.1
RCP 2.6
(2030s)
BCCCSM-1.1 903.8
420.3
1395.9
167.7
258
Change, %
6.3
11.6
0.4
−10.1
−8.1
IPSLCM5ALR 744.1
377.5
1290.8
164.7
240.5
Change, %
−17.2
−0.3
−11
−11.2
−11.9
MIROC5
1057
400.6
1697.1
196.9
295.6
Change, %
27.9
5.3
36.9
3.7
2.1
MPIESMLR
870.1
380.8
1388.3
191.2
272.5
Change, %
0.9
0.6
−2.2
2.3
−2.7
RCP 2.6
(2070s)
BCCCSM-1.1 910
436.2
1450.2
200.9
291.9
Change, %
6.3
17.7
3.8
10.5
9
IPSLCM5ALR 769
375.1
1350.5
172.9
263.4
Change, %
−14.5
−1.5
−8.2
−7.1
−7.7
MIROC5
1062.6
416.8
1699.9
179.9
297
Change, %
28.8
9.8
34.3
−4.7
2.4
MPIESMLR
1081.9
432.5
1702.5
216.9
329
Change, %
27
15.7
24.5
14.3
15.3
RCP 8.5
(2030s)
BCCCSM-1.1 909.6
430.9
1386.2
165
256.6
Change, %
6.3
14.9
−5.7
−11.1
−10
IPSLCM5ALR 736.4
380.2
1254.8
171
227.6
Change, %
−17.4
−1.6
−15.4
−7.3
−17.7
MIROC5
1216.8
435.9
1818.4
212
336.9
Change, %
49.7
17
51.3
13.5
19.4
MPIESMLR
1041.7
385.2
1664.4
202.8
320
Change, %
22
4.6
20.8
8.8
14.5
RCP 8.5
(2070s)
BCCCSM-1.1 794
456.8
1150.6
146.9
228.4
Change, %
−7.8
23.2
−26.3
−19
−17.7
IPSLCM5ALR 581.3
400
1082
154.2
182.8
Change, %
−35.5
1.5
−26.2
−16.7
−28.2
MIROC5
1224.1
473.1
1800.4
215.3
340
Change, %
50.1
27.3
56.3
19.6
24.1
MPIESMLR
988
409.6
1484.7
195.4
294.5
Change, %
15.7
11.1
9
7.6
7
4 Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion in Central Asia
Uzbekistan had an average baseline rainfall erosivity of 282.1 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
. The MIROC5 scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) projected an average
increase ranging from 2.1% to 24.1%, whereas MPIESMLR projected a mean
increase ranging from 7% to 15.3%, except for a decrease of −2.7% for the RCP 2.6
(the 2030s). IPSLCM5ALR projected a decrease in the mean annual rainfall erosivity from −7.7% to 28.2%. In general, all scenarios projected a substantial increase
and decrease in rainfall erosivity over Uzbekistan (Table 4.2). Our results (<280 MJ
Table 4.6 Rainfall erosivity in Central Asia by countries. Mean baseline and estimated (MJ mm
ha
−1 h
−1 year
−1 ) by BCCCSM1.1, IPSLCM5ALR, MIROC5, and MPIESMLR with RCP 2.6 and
RCP 8.5 emission scenario models. Projected change with regard to baseline (%)
Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Baseline (1961–1990)
869.7
374.3
1447.7
188.4
282.1
RCP 2.6
(2030s)
BCCCSM-1.1 903.8
420.3
1395.9
167.7
258
Change, %
6.3
11.6
0.4
−10.1
−8.1
IPSLCM5ALR 744.1
377.5
1290.8
164.7
240.5
Change, %
−17.2
−0.3
−11
−11.2
−11.9
MIROC5
1057
400.6
1697.1
196.9
295.6
Change, %
27.9
5.3
36.9
3.7
2.1
MPIESMLR
870.1
380.8
1388.3
191.2
272.5
Change, %
0.9
0.6
−2.2
2.3
−2.7
RCP 2.6
(2070s)
BCCCSM-1.1 910
436.2
1450.2
200.9
291.9
Change, %
6.3
17.7
3.8
10.5
9
IPSLCM5ALR 769
375.1
1350.5
172.9
263.4
Change, %
−14.5
−1.5
−8.2
−7.1
−7.7
MIROC5
1062.6
416.8
1699.9
179.9
297
Change, %
28.8
9.8
34.3
−4.7
2.4
MPIESMLR
1081.9
432.5
1702.5
216.9
329
Change, %
27
15.7
24.5
14.3
15.3
RCP 8.5
(2030s)
BCCCSM-1.1 909.6
430.9
1386.2
165
256.6
Change, %
6.3
14.9
−5.7
−11.1
−10
IPSLCM5ALR 736.4
380.2
1254.8
171
227.6
Change, %
−17.4
−1.6
−15.4
−7.3
−17.7
MIROC5
1216.8
435.9
1818.4
212
336.9
Change, %
49.7
17
51.3
13.5
19.4
MPIESMLR
1041.7
385.2
1664.4
202.8
320
Change, %
22
4.6
20.8
8.8
14.5
RCP 8.5
(2070s)
BCCCSM-1.1 794
456.8
1150.6
146.9
228.4
Change, %
−7.8
23.2
−26.3
−19
−17.7
IPSLCM5ALR 581.3
400
1082
154.2
182.8
Change, %
−35.5
1.5
−26.2
−16.7
−28.2
MIROC5
1224.1
473.1
1800.4
215.3
340
Change, %
50.1
27.3
56.3
19.6
24.1
MPIESMLR
988
409.6
1484.7
195.4
294.5
Change, %
15.7
11.1
9
7.6
7
4 Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion in Central Asia