40
Fig. 4.11 The absolute difference in soil erosion (t ha
−1 year
−1
) between the 2030 and 2070 projections and baseline data
Table 4.5 Changes in average erosion under climate change averaged across Central Asia
Periods RCPs
Models
Mean soil loss (t
−1 ha
−1 year
−1
) Differences Change (%)
Baseline
2.62
0.00
0.00
2030s
RCP 2.6 BCCCSM1.1 2.62
0.00
0.00
IPSLCM5LR 2.33
−0.29
−8.50
MIROC5
3.03
0.41
12.02
MPIESMLR 2.57
−0.05
−1.47
RCP 8.5 BCCCSM1.1 2.62
0.00
0.00
IPSLCM5LR 2.28
−0.34
−9.97
MIROC5
3.31
0.69
20.23
MPIESMLR 2.99
0.37
10.85
2070s
RCP 2.6 BCCCSM1.1 2.70
0.08
2.35
IPSLCM5LR 2.44
−0.18
−5.28
MIROC5
3.06
0.44
12.90
MPIESMLR 3.09
0.47
13.78
RCP 8.5 BCCCSM1.1 2.30
−0.32
−9.38
IPSLCM5LR 1.95
−0.67
−19.65
MIROC5
3.33
0.71
20.82
MPIESMLR 2.80
0.18
5.28
4 Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion in Central Asia
Fig. 4.11 The absolute difference in soil erosion (t ha
−1 year
−1
) between the 2030 and 2070 projections and baseline data
Table 4.5 Changes in average erosion under climate change averaged across Central Asia
Periods RCPs
Models
Mean soil loss (t
−1 ha
−1 year
−1
) Differences Change (%)
Baseline
2.62
0.00
0.00
2030s
RCP 2.6 BCCCSM1.1 2.62
0.00
0.00
IPSLCM5LR 2.33
−0.29
−8.50
MIROC5
3.03
0.41
12.02
MPIESMLR 2.57
−0.05
−1.47
RCP 8.5 BCCCSM1.1 2.62
0.00
0.00
IPSLCM5LR 2.28
−0.34
−9.97
MIROC5
3.31
0.69
20.23
MPIESMLR 2.99
0.37
10.85
2070s
RCP 2.6 BCCCSM1.1 2.70
0.08
2.35
IPSLCM5LR 2.44
−0.18
−5.28
MIROC5
3.06
0.44
12.90
MPIESMLR 3.09
0.47
13.78
RCP 8.5 BCCCSM1.1 2.30
−0.32
−9.38
IPSLCM5LR 1.95
−0.67
−19.65
MIROC5
3.33
0.71
20.82
MPIESMLR 2.80
0.18
5.28
4 Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion in Central Asia