39
part of this country. We also found results using IPSLCM5ALR for both scenarios,
with decreases ranging from −0.3% to 1.6%, except RCP 8.5 (2070s), which has an
increase of 1.5%. The most significant increase in rainfall erosivity is expected for
the 2060–2079 period using the RCP 8.5 scenario (Fig. 4.13 and Table 4.6).
The average rainfall erosivity in Turkmenistan for the baseline period was
188.4 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
. This country has the lowest rainfall erosivity among
all Central Asian countries. The ensemble scenarios of IPSLCM5ALR and
BCCCSM1.1 (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) predict decreases from −10.1% to −19% and
−7.1% to −16%, respectively. However, BCCCSM1.1-2.6 (2070s) predicts about a
10.5% increase in rainfall erosivity. The MPIESMLR and MIROC5 results indicate
changes from 2.3% to 14.3% and 3.7% to 19.6%, whereas MIROC5-2.6 (2070s)
decreased (−4.7%) during the two-time slices for the two emission scenarios.
For Tajikistan, an average rainfall erosivity of 1447.7 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
in
the baseline period was revealed. The increase was observed in the MIROC5 and
MPIESMLR scenarios, thereby indicating the highest rainfall erosivity in the study
area. However, there is also a decrease in the average rainfall erosivity in this country for IPSLCM5ALR (both scenarios and both periods), BCCCSM1.1-8.5 (both
periods), and MPIESMLR-2.6 (2030s) compared with the baseline. For both
scenarios, MIROC5 projected an increase in erosivity from 34.3% to 56.3%,
whereas IPSLCM5ALR projected a decrease from −8.2% to −26.2%.
Fig. 4.10 The areas around Ysyk-Kol Lake (Kyrgyzstan) with severe soil erosion. Soil erosion for
different scenarios for the 2030s and 2070s according to the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios driven
by the BCCCSM1.1, IPSLCM5ALR, MIROC-5, and MPIESMLR GCM models
4.6 Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion at the National Level
part of this country. We also found results using IPSLCM5ALR for both scenarios,
with decreases ranging from −0.3% to 1.6%, except RCP 8.5 (2070s), which has an
increase of 1.5%. The most significant increase in rainfall erosivity is expected for
the 2060–2079 period using the RCP 8.5 scenario (Fig. 4.13 and Table 4.6).
The average rainfall erosivity in Turkmenistan for the baseline period was
188.4 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
. This country has the lowest rainfall erosivity among
all Central Asian countries. The ensemble scenarios of IPSLCM5ALR and
BCCCSM1.1 (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) predict decreases from −10.1% to −19% and
−7.1% to −16%, respectively. However, BCCCSM1.1-2.6 (2070s) predicts about a
10.5% increase in rainfall erosivity. The MPIESMLR and MIROC5 results indicate
changes from 2.3% to 14.3% and 3.7% to 19.6%, whereas MIROC5-2.6 (2070s)
decreased (−4.7%) during the two-time slices for the two emission scenarios.
For Tajikistan, an average rainfall erosivity of 1447.7 MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1
year
−1
in
the baseline period was revealed. The increase was observed in the MIROC5 and
MPIESMLR scenarios, thereby indicating the highest rainfall erosivity in the study
area. However, there is also a decrease in the average rainfall erosivity in this country for IPSLCM5ALR (both scenarios and both periods), BCCCSM1.1-8.5 (both
periods), and MPIESMLR-2.6 (2030s) compared with the baseline. For both
scenarios, MIROC5 projected an increase in erosivity from 34.3% to 56.3%,
whereas IPSLCM5ALR projected a decrease from −8.2% to −26.2%.
Fig. 4.10 The areas around Ysyk-Kol Lake (Kyrgyzstan) with severe soil erosion. Soil erosion for
different scenarios for the 2030s and 2070s according to the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios driven
by the BCCCSM1.1, IPSLCM5ALR, MIROC-5, and MPIESMLR GCM models
4.6 Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion at the National Level