162
cliff before the end of the twenty-first century. Thus, on the geological time scale of
the Earth, the Anthropocene Epoch might turn out to be really brief.
9.2 Climate Contrarians
Human-induced climate change through the combustion of fossil fuels is recognized
as a serious environmental threat by nearly all scientists. Why then has it not been
addressed? There are a number of reasons related to economic and technological
inertia, but the people who deny that human activities are capable of affecting the
climate are a significant barrier. People who deny the reality of climate change often
self-identify as “climate contrarians,” and many project a romanticized image of
themselves as fighting the establishment, standing up to the status quo, or acting as
independent thinkers. Americans admire the underdog, and predictably cheer on
any loner who pushes against the prevailing current and goes their own way, whether
or not they turn out to be right in the end. This has been a successful plot in many
books, movies, and television series, especially westerns. It is deeply ingrained in
American culture, and exploited by those who know how appealing it can be.
The news media absolutely love anti-hero stories. One example is the lone
engineer who argued that the O-rings on the space shuttle solid rocket boosters
would not seal well in cold weather. The warnings went unheeded by NASA
managers until the Challenger exploded, and the story received a huge play in the
media afterward. This was a real-life instance of a plot device used in almost every
fictional disaster movie, which inevitably start out with officials ignoring the dire
warnings of a single renegade scientist.
In the case of climate, however, the contrarians are going up against some very
robust science. Substantial data sets like those from the Mauna Loa atmospheric
observatory in Hawaii (Fig. 9.2) clearly show that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have been steadily rising at an increasingly steeper rate since measurements
began in 1957. The sawtooth pattern in the figure is caused by the annual spring
bloom and autumn die-off of vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere that takes up
and releases CO 2 , but the solid line up the middle is the trend. Alarmingly, if one
lays a ruler or straightedge against this trend line, it can be seen to grow steeper
over time.
Concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 have increased by about 100 parts per million
(ppm) or around 30% over the last 50 years. This is carbon that has been added to
the atmosphere in amounts greater than the natural “carbon cycle” can accommodate.
The Earth regularly exchanges carbon between living plants, animals, the
atmosphere, oceans, soil, and rock. The conversion of ancient plants into petroleum
and coal is one method to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and trap it deep underground. Combustion products from the burning of these fuels releases the CO 2 back
into the atmosphere.
The increase in atmospheric concentrations over time shown in Fig. 9.2 suggests
that the carbon cycle is out of balance. Natural CO 2 sources such as volcanic activity
9 Fossil Fuels and Climate Change
cliff before the end of the twenty-first century. Thus, on the geological time scale of
the Earth, the Anthropocene Epoch might turn out to be really brief.
9.2 Climate Contrarians
Human-induced climate change through the combustion of fossil fuels is recognized
as a serious environmental threat by nearly all scientists. Why then has it not been
addressed? There are a number of reasons related to economic and technological
inertia, but the people who deny that human activities are capable of affecting the
climate are a significant barrier. People who deny the reality of climate change often
self-identify as “climate contrarians,” and many project a romanticized image of
themselves as fighting the establishment, standing up to the status quo, or acting as
independent thinkers. Americans admire the underdog, and predictably cheer on
any loner who pushes against the prevailing current and goes their own way, whether
or not they turn out to be right in the end. This has been a successful plot in many
books, movies, and television series, especially westerns. It is deeply ingrained in
American culture, and exploited by those who know how appealing it can be.
The news media absolutely love anti-hero stories. One example is the lone
engineer who argued that the O-rings on the space shuttle solid rocket boosters
would not seal well in cold weather. The warnings went unheeded by NASA
managers until the Challenger exploded, and the story received a huge play in the
media afterward. This was a real-life instance of a plot device used in almost every
fictional disaster movie, which inevitably start out with officials ignoring the dire
warnings of a single renegade scientist.
In the case of climate, however, the contrarians are going up against some very
robust science. Substantial data sets like those from the Mauna Loa atmospheric
observatory in Hawaii (Fig. 9.2) clearly show that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have been steadily rising at an increasingly steeper rate since measurements
began in 1957. The sawtooth pattern in the figure is caused by the annual spring
bloom and autumn die-off of vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere that takes up
and releases CO 2 , but the solid line up the middle is the trend. Alarmingly, if one
lays a ruler or straightedge against this trend line, it can be seen to grow steeper
over time.
Concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 have increased by about 100 parts per million
(ppm) or around 30% over the last 50 years. This is carbon that has been added to
the atmosphere in amounts greater than the natural “carbon cycle” can accommodate.
The Earth regularly exchanges carbon between living plants, animals, the
atmosphere, oceans, soil, and rock. The conversion of ancient plants into petroleum
and coal is one method to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and trap it deep underground. Combustion products from the burning of these fuels releases the CO 2 back
into the atmosphere.
The increase in atmospheric concentrations over time shown in Fig. 9.2 suggests
that the carbon cycle is out of balance. Natural CO 2 sources such as volcanic activity
9 Fossil Fuels and Climate Change