15 Understanding Gender Dimensions …
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production (IPCC 2007). Literature on the economics of climate change impacts
have suggested that although crop production may be boosted in the short run, it
will ultimately turn negative in the long term as the impact of climate change grows
(Bruinsma 2003; IPCC 2007). Globally, 82% of crop and livestock production losses
are said to be associated in one way or another to drought, floods and extreme climatic
events (FAO 2015), with those most at risk being low-lying and atoll countries, as well
as coastal areas (ABD 2013). The IPCC has also stressed that people who are socially,
culturally, politically, institutionally, economically or otherwise marginalized are
most at risk and vulnerable to climate change (IPCC 2014). There is more evidence
showing that these marginalized groups of people suffer disproportionately from both
direct and indirect effects of climate hazards, whereas earlier alluded to, loss of crops
as an example is a direct loss, but subsequent rise in food prices and degraded diets
are possible indirect impacts (Ishiwatari et al. 2019). Detailed reports of estimates
by country and region have indicated that the Asian region and Africa would be the
two regions most harmed by changing climate (UNFCCC 2007; AMCEN 2011).
Southern Africa is one of the world’s poorest and most rainfall dependent regions,
with agricultural producers operating with limited resources in fragile environments
sensitive to minor shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns on seasonal and decadal
time scales (UNFCCC 2007; AMCEN 2011; Awojobi and Tetteh 2017). The high
levels of dependence on precipitation for the viability of the region’s agriculture,
combined with observed crop sensitivities to maximum temperatures during cropping
seasons further highlight risks to the sector from changing climate (Asseng et al.
2011; Lobell et al. 2011; Schlenker and Roberts 2009). The IPCC has reported that
the high levels of confidence that the overall effect of climate change on yields of
major cereal crops in the region is very likely to be negative, with strong regional
variation (Niang et al. 2014; Awojobi and Tetteh 2017).
Drought in South Africa has been reported to have resulted in maize imports being
required in the year 1994 leading up to the year 1995, while maize export earnings
fell, resulting in a 27 and 2.4% decline in agricultural and national gross domestic
products (GDPs), respectively (FAO 2015), with a similarly severe drought characterized by a strong El Niño event experience in 2014–2015 (Baudoin et al. 2017b, a).
In Malawi, climate change models have painted a bleak image due to the predicted
2–3 °C increases in atmospheric temperatures, with a decline in rainfall and water
availability (IPCC 2007; FAO 2015). The combination of elevated temperatures and
reduced rainfall has been noted to affect more than 90% of smallholder farmers dependent on rain-fed production. This has resulted in the projections that the production
potential of maize, the main smallholder food crop (source of three-quarters of calorie
consumption) would fall by over 10%. With almost one million people in the country
living with HIV/AIDS, the superimposing effect that climate change and malnutrition has been having on the country cannot be overstated (FAO 2015; Bickton 2016).
The 2001/2002 drought forced Malawians to cut back on meals, sell household goods
and also eat seeds that would have been planted in the next cropping season. In 2005,
drought caused food shortages to 4.7 million of the total 13 million people in the
country (Phiri et al. 2005; FAO 2015). The 1991/1992 drought in Zimbabwe had a
significant effect on maize, cotton and sugar cane productivity, negatively affecting
287
production (IPCC 2007). Literature on the economics of climate change impacts
have suggested that although crop production may be boosted in the short run, it
will ultimately turn negative in the long term as the impact of climate change grows
(Bruinsma 2003; IPCC 2007). Globally, 82% of crop and livestock production losses
are said to be associated in one way or another to drought, floods and extreme climatic
events (FAO 2015), with those most at risk being low-lying and atoll countries, as well
as coastal areas (ABD 2013). The IPCC has also stressed that people who are socially,
culturally, politically, institutionally, economically or otherwise marginalized are
most at risk and vulnerable to climate change (IPCC 2014). There is more evidence
showing that these marginalized groups of people suffer disproportionately from both
direct and indirect effects of climate hazards, whereas earlier alluded to, loss of crops
as an example is a direct loss, but subsequent rise in food prices and degraded diets
are possible indirect impacts (Ishiwatari et al. 2019). Detailed reports of estimates
by country and region have indicated that the Asian region and Africa would be the
two regions most harmed by changing climate (UNFCCC 2007; AMCEN 2011).
Southern Africa is one of the world’s poorest and most rainfall dependent regions,
with agricultural producers operating with limited resources in fragile environments
sensitive to minor shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns on seasonal and decadal
time scales (UNFCCC 2007; AMCEN 2011; Awojobi and Tetteh 2017). The high
levels of dependence on precipitation for the viability of the region’s agriculture,
combined with observed crop sensitivities to maximum temperatures during cropping
seasons further highlight risks to the sector from changing climate (Asseng et al.
2011; Lobell et al. 2011; Schlenker and Roberts 2009). The IPCC has reported that
the high levels of confidence that the overall effect of climate change on yields of
major cereal crops in the region is very likely to be negative, with strong regional
variation (Niang et al. 2014; Awojobi and Tetteh 2017).
Drought in South Africa has been reported to have resulted in maize imports being
required in the year 1994 leading up to the year 1995, while maize export earnings
fell, resulting in a 27 and 2.4% decline in agricultural and national gross domestic
products (GDPs), respectively (FAO 2015), with a similarly severe drought characterized by a strong El Niño event experience in 2014–2015 (Baudoin et al. 2017b, a).
In Malawi, climate change models have painted a bleak image due to the predicted
2–3 °C increases in atmospheric temperatures, with a decline in rainfall and water
availability (IPCC 2007; FAO 2015). The combination of elevated temperatures and
reduced rainfall has been noted to affect more than 90% of smallholder farmers dependent on rain-fed production. This has resulted in the projections that the production
potential of maize, the main smallholder food crop (source of three-quarters of calorie
consumption) would fall by over 10%. With almost one million people in the country
living with HIV/AIDS, the superimposing effect that climate change and malnutrition has been having on the country cannot be overstated (FAO 2015; Bickton 2016).
The 2001/2002 drought forced Malawians to cut back on meals, sell household goods
and also eat seeds that would have been planted in the next cropping season. In 2005,
drought caused food shortages to 4.7 million of the total 13 million people in the
country (Phiri et al. 2005; FAO 2015). The 1991/1992 drought in Zimbabwe had a
significant effect on maize, cotton and sugar cane productivity, negatively affecting