boundaries. There is some suggestion already, for instance, that the carrying capacity
of the world was reached since 1970 – when both the Ecological Footprint and
biocapacity were roughly 2.7 global hectares per person (Fig. 3.3, based on the
Global Footprint Network 2020; see also Fig. 1 in Lin et al. 2018, p 7) – and has
since been breached by our persistent demand for natural resources. These resources
have been dwindling over the years (Fig. 3.4, based on data from the Global
Footprint Network 2020), with most countries experiencing resource deficits.
If this is the case, then Earth’s carrying capacity may be less than the upper limit
used by the United Nations prediction models based on population growth. This
9
World Population
Billions
Total Population
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 9 5 0
1 9 5 4
1 9 5 8
1 9 6 2
1 9 6 6
1 9 7 0
1 9 7 4
1 9 7 8
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 6
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 4
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 8
Year
Fig. 3.1 Total world population, 1950–2020. (Source: United Nations 2019b)
Population Change
2.50
Average annual rate of poulation change
(%)
1.50
0.50
1 9 5 0 - 1 9 5 5
1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 0
1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 5
1 9 6 5 - 1 9 7 0
1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 5
1 9 7 5 - 1 9 8 0
1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 5
1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 0
1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 5
1 9 9 5 - 2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 5 - 2 0 1 0
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 5
2 0 1 5 - 2 0 2 0
Years
0
1.00
2.00
Fig. 3.2 World population change, 1950–2020. (Source: United Nations 2019b)
3.1 Biocapacity as ‘Carrying Capacity’
43