30
H. Ahumada and M. Cornejo
D ln yield_t-1 × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
D ln yield_t-1 × +/-2SE
ECT_t-2 × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
ECT_t-2 × +/-2SE
Niña_t-1 × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
Niña_t-1 × +/-2SE
max30_t × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.020
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
max30_t × +/-2SE
Fig. 3 Recursive estimates Note ECT denotes the error correction te rm, that is, the deviation from
the long-run relationship
This partial system estimation and the ECM do not consider the effect of other
relationships such as the interaction between technology and climate. As an example,
using data from 1973 to 2015, we found on co-integration relationship between
global temperature anomalies (temp) and two technological variables: the adoption
of new seed varieties (seeds) and the no-till adoption (no-till). The adoption of new
seed varieties is measured as the number of soybean varieties registered in USA,
Brazil, and Argentina (the three main worldwide producers of soybeans). The no-till
adoption is measured as the proportion of no-tilled cropland acres in Argentina.
In this co-integration relationship, which is reported in Eq. (4), only the adoption
of new seed varieties adjusts to deviations from the long-run equilibria.
seeds = 2.13
(0.74)
temp + 0.01
(0.005)
no-till
(4)
The positive long-run effect of global temperature anomalies on the use of new
modified seeds may indicate that adaptation processes to climate change are being
undertaken in the agricultural sector. According to these results, the potential negative effect of climate change on agricultural could have led producers to invest
on technology in order increase their productions and crop yields. Moreover, the
changes in managerial practices experienced in Argentina through the adoption of
no-till practices has also a positive effect on the use of new seeds. The incorporation
of no-till technology does not only protect the soil from erosion caused by plowing,
but it also requires new genetically modified (GM) seeds (such as herbicide-tolerant
crops).
H. Ahumada and M. Cornejo
D ln yield_t-1 × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
D ln yield_t-1 × +/-2SE
ECT_t-2 × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
ECT_t-2 × +/-2SE
Niña_t-1 × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
Niña_t-1 × +/-2SE
max30_t × +/-2SE
1990
2000
2010
-0.020
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
max30_t × +/-2SE
Fig. 3 Recursive estimates Note ECT denotes the error correction te rm, that is, the deviation from
the long-run relationship
This partial system estimation and the ECM do not consider the effect of other
relationships such as the interaction between technology and climate. As an example,
using data from 1973 to 2015, we found on co-integration relationship between
global temperature anomalies (temp) and two technological variables: the adoption
of new seed varieties (seeds) and the no-till adoption (no-till). The adoption of new
seed varieties is measured as the number of soybean varieties registered in USA,
Brazil, and Argentina (the three main worldwide producers of soybeans). The no-till
adoption is measured as the proportion of no-tilled cropland acres in Argentina.
In this co-integration relationship, which is reported in Eq. (4), only the adoption
of new seed varieties adjusts to deviations from the long-run equilibria.
seeds = 2.13
(0.74)
temp + 0.01
(0.005)
no-till
(4)
The positive long-run effect of global temperature anomalies on the use of new
modified seeds may indicate that adaptation processes to climate change are being
undertaken in the agricultural sector. According to these results, the potential negative effect of climate change on agricultural could have led producers to invest
on technology in order increase their productions and crop yields. Moreover, the
changes in managerial practices experienced in Argentina through the adoption of
no-till practices has also a positive effect on the use of new seeds. The incorporation
of no-till technology does not only protect the soil from erosion caused by plowing,
but it also requires new genetically modified (GM) seeds (such as herbicide-tolerant
crops).