20
H. Ahumada and M. Cornejo
According to Nordhaus (2013), multiple field studies found that doubling atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 would increase yields of rice, wheat, and soybeans
about 10–15%. For the Argentine case, Magrin et al. (2005), by using agronomic
models, found that increases in yields corresponding to climate changes between
1930–60 and 1970–2000 were 38% in the case of soybeans. In a recent paper, Ahumada and Cornejo (2019) found that the median variations on CO 2 concentrations
in the atmosphere could have increased soybeans yields about 14% during 1973–
2015, all else equal. However, the carbon fertilization effect may not take place if
other plant growth factors are severely limiting. Nutrient levels, soil moisture, water
availability, and other conditions must also be met. Gray et al. (2016) found that the
intensification of drought eliminates the potential benefits of elevated dioxide for
soybean.
Empirical studies should not ignore or underestimate the effects of adaptation
measures as means for diminishing the adverse effects of climate change. Several
adaptation measures such as shifting planting dates, rotating crops, or developing
new crop varieties have also been suggested and implemented for reducing the vulnerability from the potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yield and
production (Cohn et al. 2016; Lobell et al. 2008).
Even if the focus is on studying the effects of climate change on crop yields, an
econometric model should be developed within a multivariate framework. That is,
other potential determinants of crop yields apart from climate (e.g., technological
factors) should be also considered in the analysis.
The Case of Soybeans
In this section, we describe the case of soybeans as an interesting example of mitigation and adaptation processes to climate change. Crop production and yields are
highly dependent on climate, and, in fact, global climate change may threaten the
incorporation of new lands to production or the increase of crop yields on existing
lands. Climate changes and technological advances have shifted the main worldwide production areas to nowadays warmer latitudes (to the north in the Southern
hemisphere and to the south in the Northern hemisphere).
The demand for oilseeds, and particularly for soybeans, is derived primarily from
the commercial utilization of its sub-products, high-protein soybean meal for animal
feed, and soybean oil for edible and inedible uses. Non-traditional soybean uses
such as bio-energy and bio-products are expected to increase rapidly and promise to
boost prices due to increased global demand and higher value added. Moreover, not
only most renewable energy sources have minimal contributions to global warming
emissions, in contrast to fossil fuels, but they also provide an alternative to the
eventually reserves depletion.
Over the last decades, Brazil and Argentina’s combined total soybean production
has been greater than that of the USA (the world’s top producer). According to the
2016/17 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates of the U.S. Department of
H. Ahumada and M. Cornejo
According to Nordhaus (2013), multiple field studies found that doubling atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 would increase yields of rice, wheat, and soybeans
about 10–15%. For the Argentine case, Magrin et al. (2005), by using agronomic
models, found that increases in yields corresponding to climate changes between
1930–60 and 1970–2000 were 38% in the case of soybeans. In a recent paper, Ahumada and Cornejo (2019) found that the median variations on CO 2 concentrations
in the atmosphere could have increased soybeans yields about 14% during 1973–
2015, all else equal. However, the carbon fertilization effect may not take place if
other plant growth factors are severely limiting. Nutrient levels, soil moisture, water
availability, and other conditions must also be met. Gray et al. (2016) found that the
intensification of drought eliminates the potential benefits of elevated dioxide for
soybean.
Empirical studies should not ignore or underestimate the effects of adaptation
measures as means for diminishing the adverse effects of climate change. Several
adaptation measures such as shifting planting dates, rotating crops, or developing
new crop varieties have also been suggested and implemented for reducing the vulnerability from the potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yield and
production (Cohn et al. 2016; Lobell et al. 2008).
Even if the focus is on studying the effects of climate change on crop yields, an
econometric model should be developed within a multivariate framework. That is,
other potential determinants of crop yields apart from climate (e.g., technological
factors) should be also considered in the analysis.
The Case of Soybeans
In this section, we describe the case of soybeans as an interesting example of mitigation and adaptation processes to climate change. Crop production and yields are
highly dependent on climate, and, in fact, global climate change may threaten the
incorporation of new lands to production or the increase of crop yields on existing
lands. Climate changes and technological advances have shifted the main worldwide production areas to nowadays warmer latitudes (to the north in the Southern
hemisphere and to the south in the Northern hemisphere).
The demand for oilseeds, and particularly for soybeans, is derived primarily from
the commercial utilization of its sub-products, high-protein soybean meal for animal
feed, and soybean oil for edible and inedible uses. Non-traditional soybean uses
such as bio-energy and bio-products are expected to increase rapidly and promise to
boost prices due to increased global demand and higher value added. Moreover, not
only most renewable energy sources have minimal contributions to global warming
emissions, in contrast to fossil fuels, but they also provide an alternative to the
eventually reserves depletion.
Over the last decades, Brazil and Argentina’s combined total soybean production
has been greater than that of the USA (the world’s top producer). According to the
2016/17 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates of the U.S. Department of