144
C. Winograd
former, while rather uncertain in the latter. Biofuels used in transport will add to
food demand sustaining agricultural prices. Latin America has the appropriate land
and renewable water, adding productivity gains, to increase production and supply
the future demand for food worldwide. Asia does not have suitable land and the
necessary renewable water to expand significantly production, whereas Sub-Saharan
Africa could contribute with a sizeable increase in supply. However, despite abundant
appropriate land and renewable water, the potential rise in production of the latter is
extremely uncertain due to severe political and ethnic conflict, weak property rights,
leading to highly disruptive discount rates that jeopardize a robust investment path
for a sustained expansion in the regional supply of agriculture products. Beyond the
production front, if the world population in risk of hunger will strongly decrease as
a share of total population, it will be concentrated in Africa.
The Sub-Saharan African question is certainly a matter for future research. How
will these scenarios and prognosis change if a strong drive for reforms, leading
to lower discount rates, takes hold in the region? In the 1950s, South Korea and
Ghana had the same income per capita, but economic and institutional change turned
into a structural break for development in South East Asia. Could something of
the sort happen in Sub-Saharan Africa in coming decades? A robust and sustained
development path in the region could drive an increase agriculture production, as
well as in incomes and food consumption, implying an interesting review and further
debate on the topics here discussed.
In this article last section, we discuss the potential downside of the world food
factory strategy, due to deforestation and climate change. On the one hand, the expansion of the agricultural frontier may lead to population displacement, social conflict
and local governance tensions, while it may also lead to weather and soil quality
disturbances jeopardizing the sustainability of the agricultural-based strategy. On
the other hand, the growing international concern on climate change may lead Latin
American countries to confront global governance tensions. Thus, policy-making
in the region, to benefit from the food factory opportunity in the coming decades,
requires a balanced political economy approach to manage multiple constraints.
References
Agrimonde (2009), Scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050, INRA and CIRAD
Agrimonde, Paillard S, Treyer S, Dorin B (eds) (2014) Scenarios and challenges for feeding the
world in 2050. Editions Quae, Springer, Berlin
Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J (2012) World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA
Working paper No. 12–03. Rome, FAO
Allan T, Bromwich B, Keulertz M (eds) (2019) Oxford handbook of food, water and society
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, (2008) Asia Pacific food update. Economic and Social
Department Group (RAPE), Bangkok
FAO (2018) The future of food and agriculture—Alternative pathways to 2050. Rome. 224 pp
FAO (2011) The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture (SOLAW)—
Managing systems at risk. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome and
Earthscan, London
C. Winograd
former, while rather uncertain in the latter. Biofuels used in transport will add to
food demand sustaining agricultural prices. Latin America has the appropriate land
and renewable water, adding productivity gains, to increase production and supply
the future demand for food worldwide. Asia does not have suitable land and the
necessary renewable water to expand significantly production, whereas Sub-Saharan
Africa could contribute with a sizeable increase in supply. However, despite abundant
appropriate land and renewable water, the potential rise in production of the latter is
extremely uncertain due to severe political and ethnic conflict, weak property rights,
leading to highly disruptive discount rates that jeopardize a robust investment path
for a sustained expansion in the regional supply of agriculture products. Beyond the
production front, if the world population in risk of hunger will strongly decrease as
a share of total population, it will be concentrated in Africa.
The Sub-Saharan African question is certainly a matter for future research. How
will these scenarios and prognosis change if a strong drive for reforms, leading
to lower discount rates, takes hold in the region? In the 1950s, South Korea and
Ghana had the same income per capita, but economic and institutional change turned
into a structural break for development in South East Asia. Could something of
the sort happen in Sub-Saharan Africa in coming decades? A robust and sustained
development path in the region could drive an increase agriculture production, as
well as in incomes and food consumption, implying an interesting review and further
debate on the topics here discussed.
In this article last section, we discuss the potential downside of the world food
factory strategy, due to deforestation and climate change. On the one hand, the expansion of the agricultural frontier may lead to population displacement, social conflict
and local governance tensions, while it may also lead to weather and soil quality
disturbances jeopardizing the sustainability of the agricultural-based strategy. On
the other hand, the growing international concern on climate change may lead Latin
American countries to confront global governance tensions. Thus, policy-making
in the region, to benefit from the food factory opportunity in the coming decades,
requires a balanced political economy approach to manage multiple constraints.
References
Agrimonde (2009), Scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050, INRA and CIRAD
Agrimonde, Paillard S, Treyer S, Dorin B (eds) (2014) Scenarios and challenges for feeding the
world in 2050. Editions Quae, Springer, Berlin
Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J (2012) World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA
Working paper No. 12–03. Rome, FAO
Allan T, Bromwich B, Keulertz M (eds) (2019) Oxford handbook of food, water and society
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, (2008) Asia Pacific food update. Economic and Social
Department Group (RAPE), Bangkok
FAO (2018) The future of food and agriculture—Alternative pathways to 2050. Rome. 224 pp
FAO (2011) The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture (SOLAW)—
Managing systems at risk. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome and
Earthscan, London