142
C. Winograd
Climate Change and Governance
The natural ressource-based strategy highlights two dimensions of conflict: on the
one hand, the social conflict related to the extension of the agricultural frontier and
the impact on migration, ethnic tensions, as well as potential changes on wealth and
income inequality. On the other hand, this development path stresses climate change
dynamics. These two problems lead to challenges in local and global governance,
respectively. Local governance refers to the economic and social tensions within
countries, whereas global governance arises from international tensions between
countries related to this development compact. Beyond classical international trade
conflicts and protectionist policies, global governance adds today climate change as
a new key driver. The expansion of the agricultural frontier may provoke massive
deforestation leading to significant global negative externalities. One wonders for
how long Brazil, and its neighbor countries will be able to govern without international opinion its Amazon territories, considering that it affects the provision and
quality of air on the planet. Will one day countries in the world tell Brazil that the
Amazon rainforest is too vital for the planet to let Brazil decide on its own the destiny
of territories that may influence the planet path?
16 Will the moral argument that the
developed countries had freely chosen climate change dynamics of the world for two
hundred years deter this trend of facts? May or will the ignorance and environment
neglect of the past justify the unrestricted sovereignty argument of today? National
sovereignty, international conflict and politics of cooperation thus enter the scene.
About 50% of Latin America is covered with forest. Latin America has 22% of the
world’s forests and 52% of the tropical forest—mainly the Amazon rainforest. Latin
America is thus a crucial player in the climate change arena. It can become an active
part of the problem if deforestation continues. Or it can play part of the solution if the
region contributes actively to keep and preserve the 50% of the world forest that it
governs today.
17 According to a variety of projections, without policy interventions,
more than one-half of the Amazon forest might be destroyed or degraded by 2030–50
(Swan et al. 2015).
On the other hand, vicious circle dynamics may arise for Latam. Climate change
may seriously jeopardize the development path strongly based on the “food factory
strategy”. If South America is not by far the sole driving force of climate change,
this phenomena may in turn through higher frequency of extreme weather events, as
well as changes in precipitation patterns, seriously affect hydroelectric supplies and
water supply. Consequently, the stress on agriculture may thus endanger the “world
granary and food” intensive engine of growth (Fisher 2009).
However, since 2008 we observe that deforestation has slowed down, and hopefully, Brazil has entered a new downward trend. Annual deforestation in Brazil’s
Amazon forest was lowest in 2012 since 1988. But the Brazilian government now in
place headed by President Jair Bolsonaro passionately enrolled in a militant neglect
16 Regular international polls show the growing concern on climate change. See Pew Research
Center, Global Attitude Survey (2019).
17 Latin American and Caribbean Forestry Commission (LACFC, FAO).
C. Winograd
Climate Change and Governance
The natural ressource-based strategy highlights two dimensions of conflict: on the
one hand, the social conflict related to the extension of the agricultural frontier and
the impact on migration, ethnic tensions, as well as potential changes on wealth and
income inequality. On the other hand, this development path stresses climate change
dynamics. These two problems lead to challenges in local and global governance,
respectively. Local governance refers to the economic and social tensions within
countries, whereas global governance arises from international tensions between
countries related to this development compact. Beyond classical international trade
conflicts and protectionist policies, global governance adds today climate change as
a new key driver. The expansion of the agricultural frontier may provoke massive
deforestation leading to significant global negative externalities. One wonders for
how long Brazil, and its neighbor countries will be able to govern without international opinion its Amazon territories, considering that it affects the provision and
quality of air on the planet. Will one day countries in the world tell Brazil that the
Amazon rainforest is too vital for the planet to let Brazil decide on its own the destiny
of territories that may influence the planet path?
16 Will the moral argument that the
developed countries had freely chosen climate change dynamics of the world for two
hundred years deter this trend of facts? May or will the ignorance and environment
neglect of the past justify the unrestricted sovereignty argument of today? National
sovereignty, international conflict and politics of cooperation thus enter the scene.
About 50% of Latin America is covered with forest. Latin America has 22% of the
world’s forests and 52% of the tropical forest—mainly the Amazon rainforest. Latin
America is thus a crucial player in the climate change arena. It can become an active
part of the problem if deforestation continues. Or it can play part of the solution if the
region contributes actively to keep and preserve the 50% of the world forest that it
governs today.
17 According to a variety of projections, without policy interventions,
more than one-half of the Amazon forest might be destroyed or degraded by 2030–50
(Swan et al. 2015).
On the other hand, vicious circle dynamics may arise for Latam. Climate change
may seriously jeopardize the development path strongly based on the “food factory
strategy”. If South America is not by far the sole driving force of climate change,
this phenomena may in turn through higher frequency of extreme weather events, as
well as changes in precipitation patterns, seriously affect hydroelectric supplies and
water supply. Consequently, the stress on agriculture may thus endanger the “world
granary and food” intensive engine of growth (Fisher 2009).
However, since 2008 we observe that deforestation has slowed down, and hopefully, Brazil has entered a new downward trend. Annual deforestation in Brazil’s
Amazon forest was lowest in 2012 since 1988. But the Brazilian government now in
place headed by President Jair Bolsonaro passionately enrolled in a militant neglect
16 Regular international polls show the growing concern on climate change. See Pew Research
Center, Global Attitude Survey (2019).
17 Latin American and Caribbean Forestry Commission (LACFC, FAO).