Natural Resources, Climate Change and Governance
133
Asia faces a strict limit on the extension of its agriculture land. As mentioned
above, this continent is the most significant contributor to world demand because of
its population and income growth, but it does not have the necessary land to meet
its demand. This explains China’s attempts to buy land abroad, engineered diverse
agreements to secure resources in Africa and Latin America: Asians face a growing
demand but do not have the extension and quality of land to produce its consumption
needs. In the past, colonial wars were the solution to this dilemma. But in the future,
the world will have to find better means to solve it.
Where is cultivable land? Latin America accounts for 24% of potentially world
arable land (Table 2) and 17% of the pastures (FAO 2011). Therefore, Latin America
has a good stock of physical (natural resource) capital needed to support the increase
in world production. Latin America has only 9% of the world’s cultivated land in
2020, and the region can nearly double its cultivated land by 2050 (from 142 to
228 million ha, Table 3), given the starting point and the current productive conditions.
4 Additionally, more than 90% of Latin America land cover is cultivated, forest
or grasslands (Fig. 2).
5
According to various sources of scenarios and forecasts, Latam may increase
its production by 50 to 100% between 2020 and 2050, or double to triple since
2000.
6 This sharp increase in supply potential is the result of a significant increase
in cultivated land coupled with varying degrees of productivity growth. We should
highlight a yield gap of about 52%, which means that in Latin America actual yield
is just 48% as compared to the potential yield. In contrast, the yield gap in East
Asia is just 11%, showing the constraint in food production capacity of the latter
region with very limited land resources (Table 4). Latin America can take advantage
of this opportunity.
7 On the demand side for agricultural production, the biodiesel
branch sharp increase in production adds to food leading to higher pressure on world
agricultural supply and prices (Fisher 2009), in ranges from 10 to 60% depending
on the share of first generation biofuels in transport fuels (1–8%).
8 But even before
considering technological improvements, arises the question on the opportunity for
Latam to become the “world food powerhouse” of the twenty-first century? An open
question in motion.
Additionally, meat demand and production will increase globally. Two effects
drive the additional demand, the increase in world population and higher incomes
in developing nations such as South and East Asia.
9 It is estimated that global meat
production will have to increase from 258 million tons globally in 2007 to 455 million
4 FAO 2011. The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture.
5 FAO 2011, Page 22 (adapted from Fischer et al. (2011)). See Fig. chap 1.1 in the Appendix.
6 See Agrimonde (2009), Agrimonde et al. (2014), Allan et al. (2019), Fisher (2009), Alexandratos
and Bruinsma (2012).
7 FAO 2011, Page 37 ((adapted from Fischer et al. (2011)). See Table chap 1.7 in the Appendix.
8 See Fisher (2009).
9 For example, Alexandratos and Bruissma (2012) estimate that the daily energy supply (calories
per capita per day) will increase from 2772 in 2007 to 3070 in 2050.
133
Asia faces a strict limit on the extension of its agriculture land. As mentioned
above, this continent is the most significant contributor to world demand because of
its population and income growth, but it does not have the necessary land to meet
its demand. This explains China’s attempts to buy land abroad, engineered diverse
agreements to secure resources in Africa and Latin America: Asians face a growing
demand but do not have the extension and quality of land to produce its consumption
needs. In the past, colonial wars were the solution to this dilemma. But in the future,
the world will have to find better means to solve it.
Where is cultivable land? Latin America accounts for 24% of potentially world
arable land (Table 2) and 17% of the pastures (FAO 2011). Therefore, Latin America
has a good stock of physical (natural resource) capital needed to support the increase
in world production. Latin America has only 9% of the world’s cultivated land in
2020, and the region can nearly double its cultivated land by 2050 (from 142 to
228 million ha, Table 3), given the starting point and the current productive conditions.
4 Additionally, more than 90% of Latin America land cover is cultivated, forest
or grasslands (Fig. 2).
5
According to various sources of scenarios and forecasts, Latam may increase
its production by 50 to 100% between 2020 and 2050, or double to triple since
2000.
6 This sharp increase in supply potential is the result of a significant increase
in cultivated land coupled with varying degrees of productivity growth. We should
highlight a yield gap of about 52%, which means that in Latin America actual yield
is just 48% as compared to the potential yield. In contrast, the yield gap in East
Asia is just 11%, showing the constraint in food production capacity of the latter
region with very limited land resources (Table 4). Latin America can take advantage
of this opportunity.
7 On the demand side for agricultural production, the biodiesel
branch sharp increase in production adds to food leading to higher pressure on world
agricultural supply and prices (Fisher 2009), in ranges from 10 to 60% depending
on the share of first generation biofuels in transport fuels (1–8%).
8 But even before
considering technological improvements, arises the question on the opportunity for
Latam to become the “world food powerhouse” of the twenty-first century? An open
question in motion.
Additionally, meat demand and production will increase globally. Two effects
drive the additional demand, the increase in world population and higher incomes
in developing nations such as South and East Asia.
9 It is estimated that global meat
production will have to increase from 258 million tons globally in 2007 to 455 million
4 FAO 2011. The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture.
5 FAO 2011, Page 22 (adapted from Fischer et al. (2011)). See Fig. chap 1.1 in the Appendix.
6 See Agrimonde (2009), Agrimonde et al. (2014), Allan et al. (2019), Fisher (2009), Alexandratos
and Bruinsma (2012).
7 FAO 2011, Page 37 ((adapted from Fischer et al. (2011)). See Table chap 1.7 in the Appendix.
8 See Fisher (2009).
9 For example, Alexandratos and Bruissma (2012) estimate that the daily energy supply (calories
per capita per day) will increase from 2772 in 2007 to 3070 in 2050.