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C. Winograd
food factory at large, considering value added incorporating biotechnology advances,
logistics and the contribution of new technological development.
This chapter discusses the prospects of a development path for the region capturing
the benefits of the potential response to world food demand. We will briefly introduce
and discuss the trade-offs between the productive capacity to engage in the above
strategy and the environment and social tensions arising from such a promising road
for economic growth and development. The local and global governance challenges
resulting from this development model in the current world scenario will also be
considered. The chapter includes four sections. After this introduction, the second
section presents the basics of world population, the supply and demand forecasts for
food, as well as the physical endowments of Latin America in land and water; the third
section discusses the trade-offs between the production scenarios and climate change,
sustainability and governance tensions. The fourth section contains the conclusions.
Natural Resources and Neo-Malthusianism
Population and Food
Latin America accounts for about 8.4% of the global population today, and it is
expected to account for 7.8% by 2050 and 6.3% by 2100 (Table 1).
1 The region
has almost achieved its demographic transition with total fertility of 2.0 children per
woman on average in 2019, against 5.83 in 1960s. This transition was, in many cases,
achieved with a chaotic family planning, or even with the absence of it. Brazil, for
example, did not have any active plan but fertility habits have changed dramatically.
Today, the fertility rate is less than two children per woman, and the demographic
growth is very close to European standards.
In the next decades, Asia and Africa are expected to experience the relatively
highest rates of growth in population, and the former is expected to show a significant
rise in income, whereas this is more uncertain for the latter. Concerning the world
population, there will be almost two billion Asians and two billion Africans more
by the year 2050, which adds up to four billion people more on the planet. Asia, in
particular, is likely to experience strong income growth and will, therefore, combine
two main drivers of world consumption.
Are we in face of neo-malthusian era, in the framework of growing middle classes?
In particular, with more people and a higher income, Asians will increase the demand
for food products (richer in protein and more diverse)
2 in the world. In the case of
Africa, income growth might also come with the population growth, but this is more
uncertain despite a significant stock of natural resources, due to severe local governance problems. Political instability, ethnic and religious conflict, weak institutions,
1 World Population Prospects 2019, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
2 FAO, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (2008) and Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).
C. Winograd
food factory at large, considering value added incorporating biotechnology advances,
logistics and the contribution of new technological development.
This chapter discusses the prospects of a development path for the region capturing
the benefits of the potential response to world food demand. We will briefly introduce
and discuss the trade-offs between the productive capacity to engage in the above
strategy and the environment and social tensions arising from such a promising road
for economic growth and development. The local and global governance challenges
resulting from this development model in the current world scenario will also be
considered. The chapter includes four sections. After this introduction, the second
section presents the basics of world population, the supply and demand forecasts for
food, as well as the physical endowments of Latin America in land and water; the third
section discusses the trade-offs between the production scenarios and climate change,
sustainability and governance tensions. The fourth section contains the conclusions.
Natural Resources and Neo-Malthusianism
Population and Food
Latin America accounts for about 8.4% of the global population today, and it is
expected to account for 7.8% by 2050 and 6.3% by 2100 (Table 1).
1 The region
has almost achieved its demographic transition with total fertility of 2.0 children per
woman on average in 2019, against 5.83 in 1960s. This transition was, in many cases,
achieved with a chaotic family planning, or even with the absence of it. Brazil, for
example, did not have any active plan but fertility habits have changed dramatically.
Today, the fertility rate is less than two children per woman, and the demographic
growth is very close to European standards.
In the next decades, Asia and Africa are expected to experience the relatively
highest rates of growth in population, and the former is expected to show a significant
rise in income, whereas this is more uncertain for the latter. Concerning the world
population, there will be almost two billion Asians and two billion Africans more
by the year 2050, which adds up to four billion people more on the planet. Asia, in
particular, is likely to experience strong income growth and will, therefore, combine
two main drivers of world consumption.
Are we in face of neo-malthusian era, in the framework of growing middle classes?
In particular, with more people and a higher income, Asians will increase the demand
for food products (richer in protein and more diverse)
2 in the world. In the case of
Africa, income growth might also come with the population growth, but this is more
uncertain despite a significant stock of natural resources, due to severe local governance problems. Political instability, ethnic and religious conflict, weak institutions,
1 World Population Prospects 2019, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
2 FAO, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (2008) and Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).