2 Review of Socio-Economic Development Pathway Scenarios …
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trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities is lagging. This is potentially caused largely by the absence of data and reliability, especially due to extreme
dynamics and complexity of socio-economic development (Freire et al. 2016; Hoeppe
2016).
Results: Indonesian Case Studies
Country Status on Climate Change
Climate variability and change has impacted different sectors in Indonesia, including
agriculture, water, and increasing risk of disaster. In terms of agriculture, climate
change alters precipitation, evaporation, run-off water and soil moisture. This will
severely affect the production of main crops and threaten food security (see World
Bank 2011). In the water sector, climate change has affected the water quantity and
quality. The shortage of water during the dry season is estimated in 2009, particularly
in the urban area, which will cause 2% total economic loss annually, due to limited
access to water and sanitation. Another water problem is including poor water quality
affecting the spread of diseases and raising vulnerability of people. Furthermore,
industries continue to use the groundwater causing land subsidence and increasing
the risk of seawater intrusion and flooding (World Bank nd). This is shown in the
case of big low-lying coastal cities in Indonesia including Jakarta and Semarang (see
Marfai and King 2008; Marfai et al. 2015).
In terms of risk of disaster, a study conducted by IPCC (2018) revealed that by
the end of the twenty-first century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more
than about 95% of the ocean area, and about 70% of the coastlines worldwide are
projected to experience a sea-level change within ±20% of the global mean. This
condition will increase the vulnerability of the community to climate-related natural
hazards and disaster including, flood, drought, storm and hurricane (IPCC 2018).
In terms of contribution to mitigate and adapt to climate change, based on the
NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC, Indonesia has voluntarily committed to reduce
unconditionally 29% of its greenhouse gasses emissions against the business as usual
scenario by the year of 2030 (Climate Watch Data 2019). Indonesia could increase
its contribution up to 41% reduction of emissions by 2030, subject to availability of
international support for finance, technology transfer and development and capacity
building. Meanwhile based on the target found in the Decree 62/2013 regarding
a Managing Agency for the Reduction of Emission (sic) from Deforestation and
Degradation of Forest and Peat lands, there will be 26% cut in GHG emissions, 41%
cut in GHG emissions with international assistance by 2020 (Climate Watch Data
2019).
Indonesian current effort is highly insufficient, with the projection that warming
could reach 3 to 4 degrees, far from the 2 and 1.5 degrees (Climate Action Tracker
2018). Indonesia has been increasing emission at a faster rate and might be doubled
23
trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities is lagging. This is potentially caused largely by the absence of data and reliability, especially due to extreme
dynamics and complexity of socio-economic development (Freire et al. 2016; Hoeppe
2016).
Results: Indonesian Case Studies
Country Status on Climate Change
Climate variability and change has impacted different sectors in Indonesia, including
agriculture, water, and increasing risk of disaster. In terms of agriculture, climate
change alters precipitation, evaporation, run-off water and soil moisture. This will
severely affect the production of main crops and threaten food security (see World
Bank 2011). In the water sector, climate change has affected the water quantity and
quality. The shortage of water during the dry season is estimated in 2009, particularly
in the urban area, which will cause 2% total economic loss annually, due to limited
access to water and sanitation. Another water problem is including poor water quality
affecting the spread of diseases and raising vulnerability of people. Furthermore,
industries continue to use the groundwater causing land subsidence and increasing
the risk of seawater intrusion and flooding (World Bank nd). This is shown in the
case of big low-lying coastal cities in Indonesia including Jakarta and Semarang (see
Marfai and King 2008; Marfai et al. 2015).
In terms of risk of disaster, a study conducted by IPCC (2018) revealed that by
the end of the twenty-first century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more
than about 95% of the ocean area, and about 70% of the coastlines worldwide are
projected to experience a sea-level change within ±20% of the global mean. This
condition will increase the vulnerability of the community to climate-related natural
hazards and disaster including, flood, drought, storm and hurricane (IPCC 2018).
In terms of contribution to mitigate and adapt to climate change, based on the
NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC, Indonesia has voluntarily committed to reduce
unconditionally 29% of its greenhouse gasses emissions against the business as usual
scenario by the year of 2030 (Climate Watch Data 2019). Indonesia could increase
its contribution up to 41% reduction of emissions by 2030, subject to availability of
international support for finance, technology transfer and development and capacity
building. Meanwhile based on the target found in the Decree 62/2013 regarding
a Managing Agency for the Reduction of Emission (sic) from Deforestation and
Degradation of Forest and Peat lands, there will be 26% cut in GHG emissions, 41%
cut in GHG emissions with international assistance by 2020 (Climate Watch Data
2019).
Indonesian current effort is highly insufficient, with the projection that warming
could reach 3 to 4 degrees, far from the 2 and 1.5 degrees (Climate Action Tracker
2018). Indonesia has been increasing emission at a faster rate and might be doubled