2 Review of Socio-Economic Development Pathway Scenarios …
21
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Number of publicaƟons
Year
Worldwide-General
Worldwide-SSPs
Indonesia-General
Indonesia-SSPs
Linear (WorldwideGeneral)
Linear (WorldwideSSPs)
Linear (IndonesiaGeneral)
Fig. 2.2 Result of literature review analysis. Source Scopus database analysis
discovered that there is still strong domination of physical scenarios on climate
change projections and impact rather than socio-economic-related scenario. Out of
the 136 results from worldwide case, only four results showed the direct and specific
usage of SSPs (Mochizuki et al. 2018; Chen et al. 2018; Birkmann et al. 2015;
Cuaresma and Lutz 2016).
In the case of Indonesia, only one result shows the direct usage of SSPs out of the 16
results, (case of flooding in Jakarta) (Birkmann et al. 2015), meanwhile other publications mentioned or referred to another type of future climate scenario. The usage of
SSP is still limited to the impact of climate change on a very limited type of disaster
(in this case flooding in urban and coastal areas). Review on the existing emblematic case studies around the world using the models of socio-economic scenarios
to understand the implication of each pathway to disaster vulnerabilities from the
scholarly literature are listed as below.
Chen et al. (2018) conducted studies on the population exposure to droughts in
China under the 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement
(UNFCCC 2015). It uses the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
(SPEI) to calculate drought frequencies in the period of 1986–2005 and 1.5 °C global
warming scenario (2020–2039 in RCP 2.6). The research revealed a specific outcome
that population are more exposed to drought in the East China rather than the west.
However, generally the total drought frequency will be decreasing if the 1.5 °C global
mean temperature target is achieved. Finally, it suggested that reaching the 1.5 °C
target is a potential way for mitigating the impact of climate change on both drought
hazard and population exposure (Chen et al. 2018).
Melkonyan (2014) also presented the case of drought in Armenia. Armenia has
experienced different types of water-related disasters, such as droughts, floods, and
21
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Number of publicaƟons
Year
Worldwide-General
Worldwide-SSPs
Indonesia-General
Indonesia-SSPs
Linear (WorldwideGeneral)
Linear (WorldwideSSPs)
Linear (IndonesiaGeneral)
Fig. 2.2 Result of literature review analysis. Source Scopus database analysis
discovered that there is still strong domination of physical scenarios on climate
change projections and impact rather than socio-economic-related scenario. Out of
the 136 results from worldwide case, only four results showed the direct and specific
usage of SSPs (Mochizuki et al. 2018; Chen et al. 2018; Birkmann et al. 2015;
Cuaresma and Lutz 2016).
In the case of Indonesia, only one result shows the direct usage of SSPs out of the 16
results, (case of flooding in Jakarta) (Birkmann et al. 2015), meanwhile other publications mentioned or referred to another type of future climate scenario. The usage of
SSP is still limited to the impact of climate change on a very limited type of disaster
(in this case flooding in urban and coastal areas). Review on the existing emblematic case studies around the world using the models of socio-economic scenarios
to understand the implication of each pathway to disaster vulnerabilities from the
scholarly literature are listed as below.
Chen et al. (2018) conducted studies on the population exposure to droughts in
China under the 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement
(UNFCCC 2015). It uses the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
(SPEI) to calculate drought frequencies in the period of 1986–2005 and 1.5 °C global
warming scenario (2020–2039 in RCP 2.6). The research revealed a specific outcome
that population are more exposed to drought in the East China rather than the west.
However, generally the total drought frequency will be decreasing if the 1.5 °C global
mean temperature target is achieved. Finally, it suggested that reaching the 1.5 °C
target is a potential way for mitigating the impact of climate change on both drought
hazard and population exposure (Chen et al. 2018).
Melkonyan (2014) also presented the case of drought in Armenia. Armenia has
experienced different types of water-related disasters, such as droughts, floods, and