2 Review of Socio-Economic Development Pathway Scenarios …
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Indonesia, four documents are analyzed including (1) Country National Communication document submitted to the UNFCCC (1st, 2nd and 3rd); (2) Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Country Report of Indonesia (Republic of
Indonesia 2016); and (3) Other relevant documents (e.g. disaster, land use and forest
management policy).
Literature Review
Introduction to SSPs
The Special Report on Emission Scenario (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) provides four
storylines of development with regard to the way world population, economies and
political structure may evolve over the next few decades (see also Adger et al. 2005a,
b). There are four storylines included in the SRES, including A1, A2, BI and B2. Each
is characterized by different conditions in regards to economic growth, population,
the use of technology and scale focus in development. There is also a distinction in
regards to the technological emphasis on the use of energy sources such as fossil,
non-fossil and a more balanced source (For detail storylines, see Nakicenovic et al.
2000; pp. 4–5).
The pathways have been evolved since first published in 2000. The Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are
established as an expansion of the earlier pathways (see Fig. 2.1). The pathways
include differentiations and consideration of the factors of socio-economic challenges
for mitigation as well as adaptation. SSPs served as an methodological approach for
reference, elaborated by narratives and quantitative model and pathways, and when
combined quantitatively with Climate RCPs model, it became a scenario (see O’Neill
et al. 2014 and Van Vuuren et al. 2013). However, scholars argued that there is still
a problem of the combinatorics between climate and socio-economic models in the
new RCPs and SSPs model (see Van Vuuren et al. 2011).
The SSPs’ pathways combined nine socio-economic categories, including demographics, economic development, welfare, environmental and ecological factors,
resources, institutions and governance, technological development, broader societal
factors and policies (see O’neill et al. 2014; pp. 396).
The SRES scenario outlines the four pathways (i.e. A1, A2, B1 and B2) (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). Some of them are still relevant in the new SSPs illustrations.
SSP1, identified as low challenges for mitigation and adaptation happened when
sustainable development was proceeding at a high pace with low inequalities and
more environmentally friendly technology which would increase the productivity of
land. Meanwhile, in the other extreme, high challenges for mitigation and adaptation will be experienced when the rate of emissions are high and unmitigated due
to moderate economic growth and growing population, which led to high inequality
and slow technological change in the energy sectors, with low adaptation. In between
19
Indonesia, four documents are analyzed including (1) Country National Communication document submitted to the UNFCCC (1st, 2nd and 3rd); (2) Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Country Report of Indonesia (Republic of
Indonesia 2016); and (3) Other relevant documents (e.g. disaster, land use and forest
management policy).
Literature Review
Introduction to SSPs
The Special Report on Emission Scenario (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) provides four
storylines of development with regard to the way world population, economies and
political structure may evolve over the next few decades (see also Adger et al. 2005a,
b). There are four storylines included in the SRES, including A1, A2, BI and B2. Each
is characterized by different conditions in regards to economic growth, population,
the use of technology and scale focus in development. There is also a distinction in
regards to the technological emphasis on the use of energy sources such as fossil,
non-fossil and a more balanced source (For detail storylines, see Nakicenovic et al.
2000; pp. 4–5).
The pathways have been evolved since first published in 2000. The Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are
established as an expansion of the earlier pathways (see Fig. 2.1). The pathways
include differentiations and consideration of the factors of socio-economic challenges
for mitigation as well as adaptation. SSPs served as an methodological approach for
reference, elaborated by narratives and quantitative model and pathways, and when
combined quantitatively with Climate RCPs model, it became a scenario (see O’Neill
et al. 2014 and Van Vuuren et al. 2013). However, scholars argued that there is still
a problem of the combinatorics between climate and socio-economic models in the
new RCPs and SSPs model (see Van Vuuren et al. 2011).
The SSPs’ pathways combined nine socio-economic categories, including demographics, economic development, welfare, environmental and ecological factors,
resources, institutions and governance, technological development, broader societal
factors and policies (see O’neill et al. 2014; pp. 396).
The SRES scenario outlines the four pathways (i.e. A1, A2, B1 and B2) (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). Some of them are still relevant in the new SSPs illustrations.
SSP1, identified as low challenges for mitigation and adaptation happened when
sustainable development was proceeding at a high pace with low inequalities and
more environmentally friendly technology which would increase the productivity of
land. Meanwhile, in the other extreme, high challenges for mitigation and adaptation will be experienced when the rate of emissions are high and unmitigated due
to moderate economic growth and growing population, which led to high inequality
and slow technological change in the energy sectors, with low adaptation. In between