2 Review of Socio-Economic Development Pathway Scenarios …
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contemporary challenges in transformative adaptation are the lack of understanding
of socio-economic environmental conditions in the present time and the future.
Lastly, the concept of adaptive capacity and adaptive governance further highlights
the need of new thinking in good governance when it comes to finding the best
mechanism on how to respond to global environmental change, including climate
change and disaster risk (see Smit and Wandel 2006; Pahl-Wostl 2007; Tompkins
and Adger 2004; Adger et al. 2005a, b; Djalante et al. 2011). Adaptive governance
emphasized factors such as co-learning (Pahl-Wostl 2007; Djalante et al. 2011),
co-management, participation, and collective action (Tompkins and Adger 2004;
Djalante et al. 2011), polycentric and multilayered institutions, and self-organization
and network (Djalante et al. 2011). Tompkins and Adger (2004) further argued that
the social elements are strongly influencing the present and future vulnerabilities
as both are a function of adaptive capacity, which is in turn dependent on social
capital, institutions, and resources distributions. In addition, an adaptive governance
also emphasizes the improvement of the capacity of institutions to better coordinate
relief operations, public awareness and risk reduction policy in case of disasters, by
encouraging learning from experience (Bakkour et al. 2015).
The review on existing theories revealed that resilience bounds mitigation and
adaptation in regards to climate change and disaster risk reduction. There is an
increasing focus on societal change and transformation to ensure resilience. And at
the same time also serves as perquisite variables to increase adaptive capacity and
adaptive governance for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. We
discovered that learning and building knowledge is a catalytic element to enable
resilience and transformation for successful adaptation and mitigation of climate
change impact and disaster risk in the future. The knowledge of socio-economics
and environmental conditions is identified as detrimental to the process of adaptive
transformation and resilience.
The Objective
Against these backgrounds (i.e. real-life problem, global policy status and theoretical
reflections), there are four objectives of this paper. First, to highlight the current
status of socio-economic scenario on climate change, both in existing theory and
empirical case studies, and the impact to different disasters and risk reduction effort
in scholarly literatures. Second to assess the challenges and opportunity for upscaling
existing shared climate and socio-economic projection models for policy design and
implementation. Third is to identify gaps and opportunities of the socio-economic
scenarios for better policy-making at the national level. And finally, fourth, to reflect
on the broader implication towards CCA theories and future research needs.
17
contemporary challenges in transformative adaptation are the lack of understanding
of socio-economic environmental conditions in the present time and the future.
Lastly, the concept of adaptive capacity and adaptive governance further highlights
the need of new thinking in good governance when it comes to finding the best
mechanism on how to respond to global environmental change, including climate
change and disaster risk (see Smit and Wandel 2006; Pahl-Wostl 2007; Tompkins
and Adger 2004; Adger et al. 2005a, b; Djalante et al. 2011). Adaptive governance
emphasized factors such as co-learning (Pahl-Wostl 2007; Djalante et al. 2011),
co-management, participation, and collective action (Tompkins and Adger 2004;
Djalante et al. 2011), polycentric and multilayered institutions, and self-organization
and network (Djalante et al. 2011). Tompkins and Adger (2004) further argued that
the social elements are strongly influencing the present and future vulnerabilities
as both are a function of adaptive capacity, which is in turn dependent on social
capital, institutions, and resources distributions. In addition, an adaptive governance
also emphasizes the improvement of the capacity of institutions to better coordinate
relief operations, public awareness and risk reduction policy in case of disasters, by
encouraging learning from experience (Bakkour et al. 2015).
The review on existing theories revealed that resilience bounds mitigation and
adaptation in regards to climate change and disaster risk reduction. There is an
increasing focus on societal change and transformation to ensure resilience. And at
the same time also serves as perquisite variables to increase adaptive capacity and
adaptive governance for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. We
discovered that learning and building knowledge is a catalytic element to enable
resilience and transformation for successful adaptation and mitigation of climate
change impact and disaster risk in the future. The knowledge of socio-economics
and environmental conditions is identified as detrimental to the process of adaptive
transformation and resilience.
The Objective
Against these backgrounds (i.e. real-life problem, global policy status and theoretical
reflections), there are four objectives of this paper. First, to highlight the current
status of socio-economic scenario on climate change, both in existing theory and
empirical case studies, and the impact to different disasters and risk reduction effort
in scholarly literatures. Second to assess the challenges and opportunity for upscaling
existing shared climate and socio-economic projection models for policy design and
implementation. Third is to identify gaps and opportunities of the socio-economic
scenarios for better policy-making at the national level. And finally, fourth, to reflect
on the broader implication towards CCA theories and future research needs.