Chapter 2
Review of Socio-Economic Development
Pathway Scenarios for Climate Change
Adaptation in Indonesia: Disaster Risk
Reduction Perspective
Annisa Triyanti, Muh Aris Marfai, Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei,
and Irina Rafliana
Abstract The work of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on a
Special Report on Emission Scenarios has pioneered the methods for greenhouse
gas emission scenario associated with socio-economic development pathways in
the coming century, followed by other models such as the Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSPs) in climate change and disaster risk. This scenario is useful to understand how human society develops the future assessment of climate change and to
provide possible mitigation and response strategies. This chapter is aimed to review
the current status of socio-economic scenario on climate change and disaster and
risk reduction effort in scholarly literatures and to identify gaps and opportunities
for future research and decision-making based on the reflection of existing Climate
Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) theories and emblematic case studies. We have conducted a semi-structured literature review and content
analysis. The result of our analysis revealed that there is still a dearth of study on the
application of different models of socio-economic forecasting scenarios to understand how would each pathway affect the vulnerability of certain type of disaster
and its potential as a decision-making tool in Indonesia. However, there are opportunities to expand the methods and define socio-economic variables that go beyond
the economic indicators (i.e. GDP), such as of welfare, health, education, social
A. Triyanti (B)
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a,
3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
e-mail: a.triyanti@uu.nl
M. A. Marfai · E. T. W. Mei
Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
e-mail: arismarfai@ugm.ac.id
E. T. W. Mei
e-mail: estu.mei@gmail.com
I. Rafliana
Indonesian Institute of Sciences, LIPI, Jakarta, Indonesia
e-mail: irina_rafliana@hotmail.com
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
R. Djalante et al. (eds.), Climate Change Research, Policy and Actions in Indonesia,
Springer Climate, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55536-8_2
13
Review of Socio-Economic Development
Pathway Scenarios for Climate Change
Adaptation in Indonesia: Disaster Risk
Reduction Perspective
Annisa Triyanti, Muh Aris Marfai, Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei,
and Irina Rafliana
Abstract The work of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on a
Special Report on Emission Scenarios has pioneered the methods for greenhouse
gas emission scenario associated with socio-economic development pathways in
the coming century, followed by other models such as the Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSPs) in climate change and disaster risk. This scenario is useful to understand how human society develops the future assessment of climate change and to
provide possible mitigation and response strategies. This chapter is aimed to review
the current status of socio-economic scenario on climate change and disaster and
risk reduction effort in scholarly literatures and to identify gaps and opportunities
for future research and decision-making based on the reflection of existing Climate
Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) theories and emblematic case studies. We have conducted a semi-structured literature review and content
analysis. The result of our analysis revealed that there is still a dearth of study on the
application of different models of socio-economic forecasting scenarios to understand how would each pathway affect the vulnerability of certain type of disaster
and its potential as a decision-making tool in Indonesia. However, there are opportunities to expand the methods and define socio-economic variables that go beyond
the economic indicators (i.e. GDP), such as of welfare, health, education, social
A. Triyanti (B)
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a,
3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
e-mail: a.triyanti@uu.nl
M. A. Marfai · E. T. W. Mei
Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
e-mail: arismarfai@ugm.ac.id
E. T. W. Mei
e-mail: estu.mei@gmail.com
I. Rafliana
Indonesian Institute of Sciences, LIPI, Jakarta, Indonesia
e-mail: irina_rafliana@hotmail.com
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
R. Djalante et al. (eds.), Climate Change Research, Policy and Actions in Indonesia,
Springer Climate, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55536-8_2
13