will gradually improve. The nonferrous metal
industry will see continuous growth in energy
consumption to 2030, and new building materials
will gradually replace old ones. By 2030, China
will achieve the government’s goal of “common
prosperity” and avoid the middle-income trap of
developing countries. In 2030, China’s GDP will
exceed that of the USA, making it the world’s
largest economy. In 2050, China’s economic
growth will shift from production-driven to
consumption-driven. As industrial restructuring
accelerates, China’s GDP will reach and exceed
the level of moderately developed countries.
In agriculture, machinery will be powered by
electricity, especially by renewables and biofuels, instead of by fuel oil. Use of scattered coal
will start to disappear. Energy use in industry and
buildings is expected to peak in 2025–30, and
then steadily decline. In iron and steel, as the
mainstream technologies gradually shift to a
more balanced use of long-term and short-term
objectives, the use of coal will fall sharply and
that of natural gas, electricity and heat increase
significantly. In the transport sector, petrol, diesel
and kerosene remain dominant, but the rate of
replacing them with electricity, natural gas and
biofuels will increase significantly. Energy consumption in transport will continue to grow to
2030, then slowly decline. Energy demand in the
service industry will increase continuously
throughout the period to 2050 and use of coal
will decrease rapidly as the service industry
modernises and replaces scattered coal with
electricity and gas. Household electricity demand
will remain steady.
In summary, China’s end-use energy demand
will stay at peak level between 2030–50. Specifically, energy demand in agriculture, industry,
building construction and transport will peak in
2020, 2025–30 and 2030–40 respectively. In the
service and household sectors, peak energy
demand will not be reached until 2050.
Three rate of change scenarios (Fast, Medium
and Slow) are also analysed for substituting
electricity and gas for scattered coal (SEGFSC).
For the pathway for the electric vehicle sector, a
recommended scenario and an extreme scenario
(featuring accelerated development) are analysed,
leading to energy demand forecasts for petrol,
diesel and electricity.
In the Recommended scenario, the share of
electricity in end-use energy demand rises steadily. In the SEGFSC and electric vehicle scenarios total energy consumption will decline,
although not significantly, as electricity and gas
are more efficient than coal and oil. This will
increase demand for electricity and gas, but to a
manageable extent. However, a rapid increase in
the number of electric vehicles will boost
demand for electricity. The power system will
therefore require sufficient backup capacity or
better demand-side management to meet this
uncertainty.
In the Recommended scenario, electricity
demand is divided into four segments—peak
load and ancillary services, intermediate load,
base load and distributed load. Clean power’s
share of energy supply will gradually increase,
wind and solar will rise rapidly, and nuclear
power steadily. Gas-fired power generation’s
share will remain around 10% in 2050, while
hydropower’s will gradually decrease despite its
growing generating capacity.
In the Recommended scenario, China’s total
primary energy demand will continue to grow.
Coal and oil will peak then decline. The share of
non-coal in energy supply is expected to increase
to 73% by 2050, whereas oil will rise then
gradually fall as the scale of replacing the internal combustion engine with electric vehicles
rapidly expands. Meanwhile, clean energy will
gradually play a critical role in meeting energy
demand. In addition, the rising rate of electrification will increase the share of power generation
in energy supply.
1.5 Impacts of the Energy Revolution
The Recommended scenario analyses the impacts
of the energy revolution on the following four
aspects: energy supply, industry and capacity
conversion, investment, and employment.
(1) The energy revolution changes the energy
supply system by transforming production and
innovating new energy supply technologies to
48
W. Xiaoming et al.
industry will see continuous growth in energy
consumption to 2030, and new building materials
will gradually replace old ones. By 2030, China
will achieve the government’s goal of “common
prosperity” and avoid the middle-income trap of
developing countries. In 2030, China’s GDP will
exceed that of the USA, making it the world’s
largest economy. In 2050, China’s economic
growth will shift from production-driven to
consumption-driven. As industrial restructuring
accelerates, China’s GDP will reach and exceed
the level of moderately developed countries.
In agriculture, machinery will be powered by
electricity, especially by renewables and biofuels, instead of by fuel oil. Use of scattered coal
will start to disappear. Energy use in industry and
buildings is expected to peak in 2025–30, and
then steadily decline. In iron and steel, as the
mainstream technologies gradually shift to a
more balanced use of long-term and short-term
objectives, the use of coal will fall sharply and
that of natural gas, electricity and heat increase
significantly. In the transport sector, petrol, diesel
and kerosene remain dominant, but the rate of
replacing them with electricity, natural gas and
biofuels will increase significantly. Energy consumption in transport will continue to grow to
2030, then slowly decline. Energy demand in the
service industry will increase continuously
throughout the period to 2050 and use of coal
will decrease rapidly as the service industry
modernises and replaces scattered coal with
electricity and gas. Household electricity demand
will remain steady.
In summary, China’s end-use energy demand
will stay at peak level between 2030–50. Specifically, energy demand in agriculture, industry,
building construction and transport will peak in
2020, 2025–30 and 2030–40 respectively. In the
service and household sectors, peak energy
demand will not be reached until 2050.
Three rate of change scenarios (Fast, Medium
and Slow) are also analysed for substituting
electricity and gas for scattered coal (SEGFSC).
For the pathway for the electric vehicle sector, a
recommended scenario and an extreme scenario
(featuring accelerated development) are analysed,
leading to energy demand forecasts for petrol,
diesel and electricity.
In the Recommended scenario, the share of
electricity in end-use energy demand rises steadily. In the SEGFSC and electric vehicle scenarios total energy consumption will decline,
although not significantly, as electricity and gas
are more efficient than coal and oil. This will
increase demand for electricity and gas, but to a
manageable extent. However, a rapid increase in
the number of electric vehicles will boost
demand for electricity. The power system will
therefore require sufficient backup capacity or
better demand-side management to meet this
uncertainty.
In the Recommended scenario, electricity
demand is divided into four segments—peak
load and ancillary services, intermediate load,
base load and distributed load. Clean power’s
share of energy supply will gradually increase,
wind and solar will rise rapidly, and nuclear
power steadily. Gas-fired power generation’s
share will remain around 10% in 2050, while
hydropower’s will gradually decrease despite its
growing generating capacity.
In the Recommended scenario, China’s total
primary energy demand will continue to grow.
Coal and oil will peak then decline. The share of
non-coal in energy supply is expected to increase
to 73% by 2050, whereas oil will rise then
gradually fall as the scale of replacing the internal combustion engine with electric vehicles
rapidly expands. Meanwhile, clean energy will
gradually play a critical role in meeting energy
demand. In addition, the rising rate of electrification will increase the share of power generation
in energy supply.
1.5 Impacts of the Energy Revolution
The Recommended scenario analyses the impacts
of the energy revolution on the following four
aspects: energy supply, industry and capacity
conversion, investment, and employment.
(1) The energy revolution changes the energy
supply system by transforming production and
innovating new energy supply technologies to
48
W. Xiaoming et al.