All four energy revolutions targeted economic
development, energy security and environmental
protection. These same three factors apply to
China’s energy revolution as well.
First, economic development is a permanent
goal. China has many challenges that need to be
urgently addressed, such as overpopulation, large
income inequality and regional imbalances in
economic development. The energy revolution
can satisfy people’s energy demands and create
high-tech and low-energy-consumption industries, bringing new employment opportunities.
More jobs will reduce income inequality and
regional development imbalances, helping to
deliver the government’s goal of economic
prosperity.
Second, the energy revolution can reduce
China’s dependency on other countries for
energy and lower potential supply risks, thus
improving energy security.
Finally, the severe haze and air pollution
challenges facing China are closely related to its
underdeveloped energy system. In addition,
pressure from the international community on
greenhouse gas emissions makes environmental
protection another goal of China’s energy
revolution.
In recent years, as China’s economic development entered the new normal of lower growth
rates, the energy industry also entered a new
phase. China’s energy system is shifting from
growth in quantity to a phase consistent with the
new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics
and China’s new normal economy. As new businesses start up, and energy technology innovation
and deployment accelerate, the three factors of
economic development, energy security and
environmental protection become increasingly
interdependent.
1.4.2 Scenarios for China’s Energy
Revolution
The scenarios for China’s energy revolution are
based on the following four factors.
First, in alignment with the government’s
Chinese Dream strategy, China’s socioeconomic
development scenario forecasts socioeconomic
development and energy service demand for
2020, 2030 and 2050.
Second, in accordance with the Energy Supply and Consumption Revolution Strategy
(2016–30) to forecast end-use energy demand
and to analyse the possible and recommended
pathway.
Third, we have conducted research on the
impact on the energy supply system in three
scenarios (High, Medium and Low) in which
electricity and gas replace scattered coal and the
Recommended and Limit scenarios in which
electric vehicles replace internal combustion
engines.
Fourth, we forecast China’s future primary
energy supply in the Recommended scenario for
its energy revolution pathway.
1.4.3 Outlook for China’s Energy
Revolution and Scenario
Analysis
China’s future population, floor space growth
and trends in major industrial products are analysed to forecast China’s socioeconomic development and energy service demand in 2050.
Energy consumption in agriculture, industry and
buildings, transport, the service industry and
households, is predicted in order to estimate
future total end-use energy demand. The scenarios for replacing scattered coal and internal
combustion engines are analysed to estimate
electricity and natural gas consumption and total
energy demand for vehicles in 2050.
A review of China’s socioeconomic development and energy service demand reveals that
China’s population will peak by 2030. As the
population ages, China’s future workforce will
decline in absolute terms. China’s floor space is
forecast to peak at about 92 billion cubic metres
by 2040. The rapid expansion of the real-estate
industry will come to an end, and its ability to
stimulate economic growth will weaken. China’s
automobile industry maintains strong momentum, but growth is expected to slow after 2030
due to gradual market saturation. Iron and steel
output will fall in line with declining annual
average floor space, and the steel recycling rate
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
47
development, energy security and environmental
protection. These same three factors apply to
China’s energy revolution as well.
First, economic development is a permanent
goal. China has many challenges that need to be
urgently addressed, such as overpopulation, large
income inequality and regional imbalances in
economic development. The energy revolution
can satisfy people’s energy demands and create
high-tech and low-energy-consumption industries, bringing new employment opportunities.
More jobs will reduce income inequality and
regional development imbalances, helping to
deliver the government’s goal of economic
prosperity.
Second, the energy revolution can reduce
China’s dependency on other countries for
energy and lower potential supply risks, thus
improving energy security.
Finally, the severe haze and air pollution
challenges facing China are closely related to its
underdeveloped energy system. In addition,
pressure from the international community on
greenhouse gas emissions makes environmental
protection another goal of China’s energy
revolution.
In recent years, as China’s economic development entered the new normal of lower growth
rates, the energy industry also entered a new
phase. China’s energy system is shifting from
growth in quantity to a phase consistent with the
new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics
and China’s new normal economy. As new businesses start up, and energy technology innovation
and deployment accelerate, the three factors of
economic development, energy security and
environmental protection become increasingly
interdependent.
1.4.2 Scenarios for China’s Energy
Revolution
The scenarios for China’s energy revolution are
based on the following four factors.
First, in alignment with the government’s
Chinese Dream strategy, China’s socioeconomic
development scenario forecasts socioeconomic
development and energy service demand for
2020, 2030 and 2050.
Second, in accordance with the Energy Supply and Consumption Revolution Strategy
(2016–30) to forecast end-use energy demand
and to analyse the possible and recommended
pathway.
Third, we have conducted research on the
impact on the energy supply system in three
scenarios (High, Medium and Low) in which
electricity and gas replace scattered coal and the
Recommended and Limit scenarios in which
electric vehicles replace internal combustion
engines.
Fourth, we forecast China’s future primary
energy supply in the Recommended scenario for
its energy revolution pathway.
1.4.3 Outlook for China’s Energy
Revolution and Scenario
Analysis
China’s future population, floor space growth
and trends in major industrial products are analysed to forecast China’s socioeconomic development and energy service demand in 2050.
Energy consumption in agriculture, industry and
buildings, transport, the service industry and
households, is predicted in order to estimate
future total end-use energy demand. The scenarios for replacing scattered coal and internal
combustion engines are analysed to estimate
electricity and natural gas consumption and total
energy demand for vehicles in 2050.
A review of China’s socioeconomic development and energy service demand reveals that
China’s population will peak by 2030. As the
population ages, China’s future workforce will
decline in absolute terms. China’s floor space is
forecast to peak at about 92 billion cubic metres
by 2040. The rapid expansion of the real-estate
industry will come to an end, and its ability to
stimulate economic growth will weaken. China’s
automobile industry maintains strong momentum, but growth is expected to slow after 2030
due to gradual market saturation. Iron and steel
output will fall in line with declining annual
average floor space, and the steel recycling rate
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
47