coal will be replaced by 2020 and about 70% by
2030. In this way, scattered coal consumption
will decrease to 400 Mt in 2020, 180 Mt in 2030
and 60 Mt in 2050.
3.2.2 Speed Up Electric Vehicle
Development to Promote
Clean Energy Consumption
In the Recommended scenario, the number of
registered electric vehicles (EV) in China will
reach 3 million in 2020, 80 million in 2030 and
270 million in 2050. However, the industry’s
current strong momentum indicates the possibility of faster development.
First, there is a global boom in EV R&D,
mainly around such critical technologies as
batteries, automated driving systems and
charging facilities. New concepts in leasing,
business models and financial services are
expected to accelerate developments in the EV
market.
Second, as artificial intelligence technologies
evolve, automated driving +EV is expected to
become a standard travel model in the future,
extending vehicles from a travel tool to a home
on wheels. This new way of travelling can speed
up the transition from conventional vehicles to
EVs in the medium and long terms.
Third, EVs can serve as both a means of
transport and a distributed energy storage facility.
With expanding battery (energy storage) size and
support from smart grid technologies, EVs can
Table 1 Two EV
development scenarios
Source Findings of the
DRC research team
Scenario
Year
2020
2030
2050
Recommended scenario
Ownership (million)
5.24
83
270
Proportion (%)
1.9
18.4
50.0
Accelerated scenario
Ownership (million)
5.24
200
500
Proportion (%)
2.0
44
93
Vehicle ownership (million, including fuel
vehicles and EVs)
272.23
450
540
Fig. 19 China’s total vehicle energy demand in two EV development scenarios
Overview: High-Quality Energy for High-Quality Growth …
19
2030. In this way, scattered coal consumption
will decrease to 400 Mt in 2020, 180 Mt in 2030
and 60 Mt in 2050.
3.2.2 Speed Up Electric Vehicle
Development to Promote
Clean Energy Consumption
In the Recommended scenario, the number of
registered electric vehicles (EV) in China will
reach 3 million in 2020, 80 million in 2030 and
270 million in 2050. However, the industry’s
current strong momentum indicates the possibility of faster development.
First, there is a global boom in EV R&D,
mainly around such critical technologies as
batteries, automated driving systems and
charging facilities. New concepts in leasing,
business models and financial services are
expected to accelerate developments in the EV
market.
Second, as artificial intelligence technologies
evolve, automated driving +EV is expected to
become a standard travel model in the future,
extending vehicles from a travel tool to a home
on wheels. This new way of travelling can speed
up the transition from conventional vehicles to
EVs in the medium and long terms.
Third, EVs can serve as both a means of
transport and a distributed energy storage facility.
With expanding battery (energy storage) size and
support from smart grid technologies, EVs can
Table 1 Two EV
development scenarios
Source Findings of the
DRC research team
Scenario
Year
2020
2030
2050
Recommended scenario
Ownership (million)
5.24
83
270
Proportion (%)
1.9
18.4
50.0
Accelerated scenario
Ownership (million)
5.24
200
500
Proportion (%)
2.0
44
93
Vehicle ownership (million, including fuel
vehicles and EVs)
272.23
450
540
Fig. 19 China’s total vehicle energy demand in two EV development scenarios
Overview: High-Quality Energy for High-Quality Growth …
19