technologies have been invented, but few qualify
as an energy technology revolution. To understand the deep implications of energy technology
revolution, multiple dimensions and perspectives
must be taken into account.
1.1 Energy Technology Revolution Is
a Long-Term Process
The history of technology shows that it often
takes several decades for new technologies to
flourish. It can take as long as 30 years for a new
technology to gain a 1% market share, and even
longer for it to be deployed at scale. There are
many such examples: the steam engine appeared
in the late 18th century, but the number of
workers employed by steam engine-powered
factories and manual workshops did not pass
50% of the total until 1880
1 ; the history of
electric vehicles (EVs) can be traced back to the
1830s, with the world’s first commercially
operated EV unveiled in New York in 1897,
although little progress was made in the next
100 years; the modern oil industry took shape in
1859, but didn’t take off until the early 20th
century; fracturing and horizontal well drilling
technologies have a history of more than 50 and
30 years respectively, but the shale gas revolution did not occur until after the global financial
crisis in 2008.
For those technologies that qualify as revolutionary, the deployment life cycle of their core
technology is often far more than 100 years.
Rail, electricity and motor vehicles are typical
examples.
2 This tells us that energy technology
revolution is typically a long-term process.
1.2 Energy Technology Revolution Is
Strongly Correlated
with Industrial Revolution
Human society has witnessed two energy revolutions—from wood and biomass to coal, and
from coal to oil and gas. These two revolutions
spawned or were accompanied by technological
or industrial revolutions, including the steam
engine, the internal combustion engine and
electrification. Together, they drove productivity
and enabled civilisation to leap forward. As
summarised by Freeman and Soete,
3 over the
past 200 years, the energy system has undergone
several transitions—from hydraulic power to
steam, to electricity, oil, and oil and gas. These
transitions underpin the Kondratiev waves of
economic and technological cycles. The rationale
behind these waves is that a rapid drop in the
price of critical energy resources is enabled only
by a technology revolution, such as steam, that
eventually boosts productivity significantly
(Table 1).
1.3 Energy Technology Revolution
Triggers New
and Important Energy
Sectors
There is a strong correlation between energy
technology revolution and industrial revolution.
Every energy technology revolution in history
has enabled new and important energy sectors to
emerge. These include coal and oil and gas in
primary energy, and electricity in secondary
energy, all three of which are still significant
pillar industries for economic growth.
For example, the oil and power industries that
emerged in the second half of the 19th century
still play an important role in driving economic
growth in the USA. Measured by industry R&D
investment per capita and the proportion of
employees with an education in the STEM disciplines (science, technology, engineering and
1
Vaclav Smil, Made in the USA: The Rise and Retreat of
American Manufacturing, The MIT Press, 2015.
2
Jan Fagerberg, David C. Mowery and Richard R. Nelson,
The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University
Press, 2006.
3
Chris Freeman, and Luc Soete, The Economics of
Industrial Innovation, Routledge, 1997.
288
S. Zifeng and N. Dickens
as an energy technology revolution. To understand the deep implications of energy technology
revolution, multiple dimensions and perspectives
must be taken into account.
1.1 Energy Technology Revolution Is
a Long-Term Process
The history of technology shows that it often
takes several decades for new technologies to
flourish. It can take as long as 30 years for a new
technology to gain a 1% market share, and even
longer for it to be deployed at scale. There are
many such examples: the steam engine appeared
in the late 18th century, but the number of
workers employed by steam engine-powered
factories and manual workshops did not pass
50% of the total until 1880
1 ; the history of
electric vehicles (EVs) can be traced back to the
1830s, with the world’s first commercially
operated EV unveiled in New York in 1897,
although little progress was made in the next
100 years; the modern oil industry took shape in
1859, but didn’t take off until the early 20th
century; fracturing and horizontal well drilling
technologies have a history of more than 50 and
30 years respectively, but the shale gas revolution did not occur until after the global financial
crisis in 2008.
For those technologies that qualify as revolutionary, the deployment life cycle of their core
technology is often far more than 100 years.
Rail, electricity and motor vehicles are typical
examples.
2 This tells us that energy technology
revolution is typically a long-term process.
1.2 Energy Technology Revolution Is
Strongly Correlated
with Industrial Revolution
Human society has witnessed two energy revolutions—from wood and biomass to coal, and
from coal to oil and gas. These two revolutions
spawned or were accompanied by technological
or industrial revolutions, including the steam
engine, the internal combustion engine and
electrification. Together, they drove productivity
and enabled civilisation to leap forward. As
summarised by Freeman and Soete,
3 over the
past 200 years, the energy system has undergone
several transitions—from hydraulic power to
steam, to electricity, oil, and oil and gas. These
transitions underpin the Kondratiev waves of
economic and technological cycles. The rationale
behind these waves is that a rapid drop in the
price of critical energy resources is enabled only
by a technology revolution, such as steam, that
eventually boosts productivity significantly
(Table 1).
1.3 Energy Technology Revolution
Triggers New
and Important Energy
Sectors
There is a strong correlation between energy
technology revolution and industrial revolution.
Every energy technology revolution in history
has enabled new and important energy sectors to
emerge. These include coal and oil and gas in
primary energy, and electricity in secondary
energy, all three of which are still significant
pillar industries for economic growth.
For example, the oil and power industries that
emerged in the second half of the 19th century
still play an important role in driving economic
growth in the USA. Measured by industry R&D
investment per capita and the proportion of
employees with an education in the STEM disciplines (science, technology, engineering and
1
Vaclav Smil, Made in the USA: The Rise and Retreat of
American Manufacturing, The MIT Press, 2015.
2
Jan Fagerberg, David C. Mowery and Richard R. Nelson,
The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University
Press, 2006.
3
Chris Freeman, and Luc Soete, The Economics of
Industrial Innovation, Routledge, 1997.
288
S. Zifeng and N. Dickens