constraints are expected to be lowered in the
future.
Heavy-duty vehicles: Electrification requires
major investment in either catenary lanes, costing
$2 million per kilometre, or in expensive inductive charging infrastructure, which is lower efficiency and requires vast changes to the existing
infrastructure.
High-speed rail: Limited to specific regions of
high-population density; it also requires
significant infrastructure investment in electric
trains and train lines. Modal shift and behavioural barriers are key to unlocking the benefits
of rail electrification.
Shipping: Limited potential for electrification,
possibly limited to coastal shipping due to
shorter distances.
Air: Limited potential in electrifying air
transport unless major technology breakthroughs
occur (Fig. 57).
Fig. 53 Structural change tends to shift activity to less power-intensive sectors. Note IEA 2017 B2DS = International
Energy Agency, Beyond 2°C Scenario (2017). Source Vivid Economics
Fig. 54 Country-specific characteristics affect the potential for electrification. Source Vivid Economics
280
Y. Jianlong and M. Haigh