significant breakthroughs have been made in
advanced coal chemical synthesis. Specifically,
many locally developed technologies have been
commercialised, including direct coal liquefaction and catalysts, high/low temperature
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and catalysts,
methanol-to-low-carbon-olefins and catalysts,
and fluidised bed methanol-to-aromatics and
catalysts. Third, critical equipment for the production of coal chemicals has been locally
manufactured in China, including large air separators, methanol-to-olefins reactors and the main
pump valves. Fourth, the development and
deployment of treatment technologies for waste
gas, wastewater and solid waste in coal chemical
production has made great progress, with
near-zero discharge of wastewater now possible.
There are also many obstacles to overcome in
the modern coal chemical industry. These
include high consumption of resources, especially water; high capital investment in plants;
difficulties in, and the high cost of, treating waste
gas, wastewater and solid waste; and high CO 2
emissions. In recent years, sharply declining
international oil prices have lowered the price of
oil-based chemicals, severely restricting growth
for modern coal chemical companies. In the
context of China’s slower economic growth,
resource conservation and environmental awareness, the Chinese government has introduced
increasingly strict policies for the coal chemical
industry to raise the access threshold. It should be
remembered that China is still modernising its
coal chemical industry. In-depth research and
prudence are needed.
5.2 Oil
5.2.1 Current Trends in Oil Demand
China’s remaining oil resources are still abundant
—the geological reserves of new proven oil
resources were 1.118 Bt in 2015 and have
exceeded 1 Bt for nine successive years. By the
end of 2015, China’s cumulative geological
reserves of proven oil resources reached
37.176 Bt, including economically recoverable
reserves of 2.569 Bt, with the reserves to
production ratio at 11.9. China sustained oil production at a level above 200 Mt for six successive
years; oil production reached 215 Mt in 2015,
increasing by 1.5% compared with the previous
year. Oil consumption grows continuously—in
2015, China’s oil consumption reached 550 Mt,
rising by 6.1% compared with the previous year,
and dependency on oil imports stood at 60.6%.
The share of oil in China’s primary energy consumption is also increasing—in 2015, oil
accounted for 18.1%, rising by 0.7% compared
with the previous year, yet far below the world
average of 32.9%.
In terms of oil demand, petrol, kerosene and
diesel consumption was 97.76 Mt, 23.35 Mt and
171.65 Mt respectively in 2014. Petrol and kerosene use increased by 4.4% and 7.9% respectively from the previous year, while diesel
consumption grew by 0.14 Mt. Figure 46 shows
the production and consumption data of oil and
major oil products in China from 2000 to 2015.
In that period, China’s oil consumption grew
rapidly. Compared with 2000, oil consumption in
2015 increased by 142%, but oil production grew
only by 31.6%. The production of major oil
products increases on a yearly basis. Kerosene
production in 2015 was 17.35 Mt higher than in
2010, reflecting an average annual growth rate of
11.31% over the six years. The average annual
growth rate of petrol was 8.52%, while that of
diesel was much lower at 3.18%. The consumption of oil products also shows a yearly
growth trend—from 2010, the average annual
growth rate of petrol, kerosene and diesel was
7.04%, 5.76% and 3.15% respectively. As the
gap between oil consumption and production
expanded, China’s dependency on oil imports
reached 60.6% in 2015, which posed huge
challenges in terms of oil supply security. Diesel
production was slightly higher than consumption, and their growth rates were basically the
same. In 2014, the production of petrol and
kerosene was 12.83 and 31.95% higher than
consumption, which is consistent with China’s
current diesel-petrol ratio of consumption. The
diesel-petrol ratio peaked in 2005 and 2007 at
2.26:1, dropping to 1.76:1 in 2014.
Special Report 2: Research on China’s Energy Demand Revolution
269
advanced coal chemical synthesis. Specifically,
many locally developed technologies have been
commercialised, including direct coal liquefaction and catalysts, high/low temperature
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and catalysts,
methanol-to-low-carbon-olefins and catalysts,
and fluidised bed methanol-to-aromatics and
catalysts. Third, critical equipment for the production of coal chemicals has been locally
manufactured in China, including large air separators, methanol-to-olefins reactors and the main
pump valves. Fourth, the development and
deployment of treatment technologies for waste
gas, wastewater and solid waste in coal chemical
production has made great progress, with
near-zero discharge of wastewater now possible.
There are also many obstacles to overcome in
the modern coal chemical industry. These
include high consumption of resources, especially water; high capital investment in plants;
difficulties in, and the high cost of, treating waste
gas, wastewater and solid waste; and high CO 2
emissions. In recent years, sharply declining
international oil prices have lowered the price of
oil-based chemicals, severely restricting growth
for modern coal chemical companies. In the
context of China’s slower economic growth,
resource conservation and environmental awareness, the Chinese government has introduced
increasingly strict policies for the coal chemical
industry to raise the access threshold. It should be
remembered that China is still modernising its
coal chemical industry. In-depth research and
prudence are needed.
5.2 Oil
5.2.1 Current Trends in Oil Demand
China’s remaining oil resources are still abundant
—the geological reserves of new proven oil
resources were 1.118 Bt in 2015 and have
exceeded 1 Bt for nine successive years. By the
end of 2015, China’s cumulative geological
reserves of proven oil resources reached
37.176 Bt, including economically recoverable
reserves of 2.569 Bt, with the reserves to
production ratio at 11.9. China sustained oil production at a level above 200 Mt for six successive
years; oil production reached 215 Mt in 2015,
increasing by 1.5% compared with the previous
year. Oil consumption grows continuously—in
2015, China’s oil consumption reached 550 Mt,
rising by 6.1% compared with the previous year,
and dependency on oil imports stood at 60.6%.
The share of oil in China’s primary energy consumption is also increasing—in 2015, oil
accounted for 18.1%, rising by 0.7% compared
with the previous year, yet far below the world
average of 32.9%.
In terms of oil demand, petrol, kerosene and
diesel consumption was 97.76 Mt, 23.35 Mt and
171.65 Mt respectively in 2014. Petrol and kerosene use increased by 4.4% and 7.9% respectively from the previous year, while diesel
consumption grew by 0.14 Mt. Figure 46 shows
the production and consumption data of oil and
major oil products in China from 2000 to 2015.
In that period, China’s oil consumption grew
rapidly. Compared with 2000, oil consumption in
2015 increased by 142%, but oil production grew
only by 31.6%. The production of major oil
products increases on a yearly basis. Kerosene
production in 2015 was 17.35 Mt higher than in
2010, reflecting an average annual growth rate of
11.31% over the six years. The average annual
growth rate of petrol was 8.52%, while that of
diesel was much lower at 3.18%. The consumption of oil products also shows a yearly
growth trend—from 2010, the average annual
growth rate of petrol, kerosene and diesel was
7.04%, 5.76% and 3.15% respectively. As the
gap between oil consumption and production
expanded, China’s dependency on oil imports
reached 60.6% in 2015, which posed huge
challenges in terms of oil supply security. Diesel
production was slightly higher than consumption, and their growth rates were basically the
same. In 2014, the production of petrol and
kerosene was 12.83 and 31.95% higher than
consumption, which is consistent with China’s
current diesel-petrol ratio of consumption. The
diesel-petrol ratio peaked in 2005 and 2007 at
2.26:1, dropping to 1.76:1 in 2014.
Special Report 2: Research on China’s Energy Demand Revolution
269