fossil energy use is pushed up by the carbon
pricing policy, which limits fossil energy
demand; on the other hand, the cost of consuming non-fossil energy is lowered by the subsidy
policy, which increases non-fossil energy
demand. The simulation results show that in the
single scenario of $90/tC carbon pricing and the
single scenario of 30% non-fossil energy subsidy, the share of non-fossil energy is 15.2% and
18.4% respectively, neither of which is sufficient
to reach the goal of a 20% non-fossil energy
share by 2030. However, in the combined policy
scenario of $30/tC carbon pricing and a 30%
non-fossil energy subsidy, the share of non-fossil
energy reaches 20.1% by 2030, thus achieving
the goal. When the carbon price level is increased
to $60/tC and $90/tC, the share of non-fossil
energy will rise to 21.7% and 23.1% respectively. In the single carbon pricing scenario, the
share of non-fossil energy will be around 30% by
2050, while in the single non-fossil energy subsidy scenario, the figure will reach 40%. In the
combined policy scenario, the share of non-fossil
energy will exceed 50% and even reach 57.6% in
the strictest combined scenario of carbon pricing
and non-fossil energy subsidy.
3.4.5 Comparison of the Three INDC
Goals and Analysis of Their
Relationships
This section briefly summarises how China can
achieve its three INDC goals of reducing carbon
intensity, reaching peak carbon emissions, and
increasing the share of non-fossil energy in the
energy mix to 20%, all by 2030.
In terms of carbon intensity, no additional
policy efforts are needed to reduce carbon
intensity by 60% by 2030. However, to ensure
carbon intensity reduction by 65%, additional
policy efforts are required, such as a low
carbon-pricing scenario ($30/tC) or a single
policy of 30% non-fossil energy subsidy.
The goal of reaching peak carbon emissions
by 2030 is not possible in the single non-fossil
energy subsidy or low carbon pricing scenario. It
can only be delivered on schedule in the high
carbon pricing scenario ($90/tC) or the combined
policy scenario of carbon pricing and non-fossil
energy subsidy.
In terms of non-fossil energy development,
even if the high carbon pricing policy of $90/tC
or high price subsidy policy of 30% is implemented, the share of non-fossil energy in primary
energy demand will still be lower than 20% by
2030. The goal of 20% non-fossil energy share
can only be achieved in combined policy scenarios (for example, a combination of a $30/tC
carbon price and a 30% subsidy).
The analysis above shows that the carbon
intensity goal requires the least additional policy
efforts and is easiest to achieve, whereas the goal
of 20% non-fossil energy share requires the
greatest effort and is the most difficult.
4 The Impact of Information
Technology on Energy Demand
4.1 The Evolution of IT and Its Impact
on Energy Demand
From the 1990s on, continuous innovation in
information technology (IT) and rapid, sustained
development of the IT industry drove the world
into the information age and, lately, the era of
digitalisation. IT and digitalisation will inevitably
trigger great changes in energy supply and in the
demand patterns of businesses and people.
4.1.1 Evolution of IT
Informatisation is the extent to which an economy or society becomes information-based. It is
an evolutionary process. In industrial society, the
creativity of individuals, efficiency of businesses
and organisations and the competitiveness of
countries were restricted in both time and space.
In the age of information, technological innovation continuously improves information infrastructure and increasingly refines production and
management in business.
Evolution from the Internet to big data is
inevitable. Information technology created the
Internet, breaking the temporal and spatial boundaries between production, living and
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pricing policy, which limits fossil energy
demand; on the other hand, the cost of consuming non-fossil energy is lowered by the subsidy
policy, which increases non-fossil energy
demand. The simulation results show that in the
single scenario of $90/tC carbon pricing and the
single scenario of 30% non-fossil energy subsidy, the share of non-fossil energy is 15.2% and
18.4% respectively, neither of which is sufficient
to reach the goal of a 20% non-fossil energy
share by 2030. However, in the combined policy
scenario of $30/tC carbon pricing and a 30%
non-fossil energy subsidy, the share of non-fossil
energy reaches 20.1% by 2030, thus achieving
the goal. When the carbon price level is increased
to $60/tC and $90/tC, the share of non-fossil
energy will rise to 21.7% and 23.1% respectively. In the single carbon pricing scenario, the
share of non-fossil energy will be around 30% by
2050, while in the single non-fossil energy subsidy scenario, the figure will reach 40%. In the
combined policy scenario, the share of non-fossil
energy will exceed 50% and even reach 57.6% in
the strictest combined scenario of carbon pricing
and non-fossil energy subsidy.
3.4.5 Comparison of the Three INDC
Goals and Analysis of Their
Relationships
This section briefly summarises how China can
achieve its three INDC goals of reducing carbon
intensity, reaching peak carbon emissions, and
increasing the share of non-fossil energy in the
energy mix to 20%, all by 2030.
In terms of carbon intensity, no additional
policy efforts are needed to reduce carbon
intensity by 60% by 2030. However, to ensure
carbon intensity reduction by 65%, additional
policy efforts are required, such as a low
carbon-pricing scenario ($30/tC) or a single
policy of 30% non-fossil energy subsidy.
The goal of reaching peak carbon emissions
by 2030 is not possible in the single non-fossil
energy subsidy or low carbon pricing scenario. It
can only be delivered on schedule in the high
carbon pricing scenario ($90/tC) or the combined
policy scenario of carbon pricing and non-fossil
energy subsidy.
In terms of non-fossil energy development,
even if the high carbon pricing policy of $90/tC
or high price subsidy policy of 30% is implemented, the share of non-fossil energy in primary
energy demand will still be lower than 20% by
2030. The goal of 20% non-fossil energy share
can only be achieved in combined policy scenarios (for example, a combination of a $30/tC
carbon price and a 30% subsidy).
The analysis above shows that the carbon
intensity goal requires the least additional policy
efforts and is easiest to achieve, whereas the goal
of 20% non-fossil energy share requires the
greatest effort and is the most difficult.
4 The Impact of Information
Technology on Energy Demand
4.1 The Evolution of IT and Its Impact
on Energy Demand
From the 1990s on, continuous innovation in
information technology (IT) and rapid, sustained
development of the IT industry drove the world
into the information age and, lately, the era of
digitalisation. IT and digitalisation will inevitably
trigger great changes in energy supply and in the
demand patterns of businesses and people.
4.1.1 Evolution of IT
Informatisation is the extent to which an economy or society becomes information-based. It is
an evolutionary process. In industrial society, the
creativity of individuals, efficiency of businesses
and organisations and the competitiveness of
countries were restricted in both time and space.
In the age of information, technological innovation continuously improves information infrastructure and increasingly refines production and
management in business.
Evolution from the Internet to big data is
inevitable. Information technology created the
Internet, breaking the temporal and spatial boundaries between production, living and
260
Y. Jianlong and M. Haigh