stock will determine China’s future steel demand
and industrial demand for energy.
1.1.3 Buildings
The range of energy service demand for China’s
buildings is wide even in 2030. In the low case,
based on IEA’s 2DS scenario, China’s energy
service demand for buildings may remain almost
constant to 2030, which is not in line with historical experience. As most Chinese cities lie
within general international experience, the
deviation required for the 2DS case suggests
changes in efficiency or economic activity. For
example, in Alxa, Inner Mongolia, high secondary industry output causes GDP per capita to
be extremely high, while building energy services remain low as income largely does not
remain in the city. This is in contrast to Sanya,
Hainan Island, where the nature of the
tourism-dominated economy causes building
Fig. 6 Higher population density can restrict transport service demand. Note PPP = purchasing power parity. Source
OECD; IEA
Fig. 5 Comparison of China’s transport model with
international experience. Note 2DS = the IEA’s pathway
representing a 2°C goal for limiting global warming;
PPP = purchasing power parity. Source OECD; IEA,
Energy Technology Perspectives; National Bureau of
Statistics of China
Special Report 2: Research on China’s Energy Demand Revolution
219
and industrial demand for energy.
1.1.3 Buildings
The range of energy service demand for China’s
buildings is wide even in 2030. In the low case,
based on IEA’s 2DS scenario, China’s energy
service demand for buildings may remain almost
constant to 2030, which is not in line with historical experience. As most Chinese cities lie
within general international experience, the
deviation required for the 2DS case suggests
changes in efficiency or economic activity. For
example, in Alxa, Inner Mongolia, high secondary industry output causes GDP per capita to
be extremely high, while building energy services remain low as income largely does not
remain in the city. This is in contrast to Sanya,
Hainan Island, where the nature of the
tourism-dominated economy causes building
Fig. 6 Higher population density can restrict transport service demand. Note PPP = purchasing power parity. Source
OECD; IEA
Fig. 5 Comparison of China’s transport model with
international experience. Note 2DS = the IEA’s pathway
representing a 2°C goal for limiting global warming;
PPP = purchasing power parity. Source OECD; IEA,
Energy Technology Perspectives; National Bureau of
Statistics of China
Special Report 2: Research on China’s Energy Demand Revolution
219