reaches of the Yellow River, will be under way.
Total hydropower capacity will reach 370 GW in
2020, which is more than 50% of China’s clean
and low-carbon power generation capacity. By
2030, hydropower development will focus on the
upper reaches of Jinsha River, the upper reaches of
Lancang River, and Nujiang River. Newly constructed hydropower projects will reach 80–100
GW in 2020–30 and 400–450 GW in 2050.
Hydropower development and ecological
protection will be taken into equal consideration
to minimise the species affected. Fish pass
structures will be developed, demonstrated and
implemented, and rare animals, plants and
ancient trees will be well protected. The land
requisition compensation system will be continuously improved to ensure reasonable compensation for those displaced by hydropower
projects. Centralised and decentralised relocation
will be combined to provide an optimal solution
to any resettlement or employment problems
facing those required to move.
4.2.2 Renewable Energy: Increasing
Share of the Energy Mix
(1) Wind power: Equal focus on onshore and
offshore to ensure coordinated development
By 2020, onshore and offshore wind power will
play a dominant and complementary role. Wind
power projects in the north, north-east,
north-west, eastern coastal China and areas with
medium and low wind speed, will be developed.
By 2020, cumulative installed wind power
capacity will reach 250 GW, which is 12% of
China’s total installed power generation capacity.
Wind power will meet 6.5% of electricity demand,
at parity with conventional coal-fired generation.
In 2020–30, equal focus will be put on
onshore and offshore wind power development,
with new installed capacity close to 20 GW
annually. In 2030, cumulative installed wind
power capacity will exceed 400 GW, which will
be 8.6% of China’s total power output. The share
of wind power in the energy source mix will
increase to about 15%.
In 2030–50, offshore wind power development close to load centres will take off. In 2050,
cumulative installed wind power capacity will
exceed 1,000 GW, or 14.6% of China’s total
power output. The share of wind power in the
energy source mix will increase to about 25%.
(2) Solar power: Deploy the right solar technology for local conditions
In desert areas with abundant sun like west and north
China, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, solar power
will be prioritised. In medium and large cities in east
and central China, building-integrated PV systems
will rapidly develop and be widely deployed. In
regions that feature good sunshine conditions, large
areas of available land and abundant water resources, solar thermal pilot projects will be built to test
different solar thermal technologies. Installed solar
power capacity will reach 140 GW in 2020, 400 GW
in 2030 and 1,000 GW in 2050.
Solar power will speed up the process of
addressing access to electricity issues and poverty alleviation in areas that large grids don’t
reach. Poverty alleviation projects will be started
in those areas to help provide people in need with
a stable source of income.
(3) Liquid biofuels: A substitute for oil
In the heavy-duty truck, aviation and shipping
sectors, non-food liquid biofuels will be gradually
commercialised and used at scale. In the short and
medium terms, the production cost of non-food
liquid biofuels will drop sharply, with production
reaching 10 Mt in 2020. As breakthroughs are
made in second and third generation biomass
technologies—like cellulosic ethanol and
algae-based biofuel—liquid biofuels will gradually
replace petrol, diesel and kerosene in heavy-duty
trucks, aviation and shipping. The production of
liquid biofuels for transport will reach 20 Mt and 60
Mt in 2030 and 2050 respectively, replacing about
50 Mt of petroleum-based fuels.
(4) Renewable heat will grow extensively
Solar thermal energy will play an important role
in heating and cooling buildings and heating
water for homes, businesses and industry. By
2020, solar-powered water heating systems will
be extensively deployed to ensure that the heating capacity of solar thermal applications reaches
800 million cubic metres, and that solar thermal
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
151
Total hydropower capacity will reach 370 GW in
2020, which is more than 50% of China’s clean
and low-carbon power generation capacity. By
2030, hydropower development will focus on the
upper reaches of Jinsha River, the upper reaches of
Lancang River, and Nujiang River. Newly constructed hydropower projects will reach 80–100
GW in 2020–30 and 400–450 GW in 2050.
Hydropower development and ecological
protection will be taken into equal consideration
to minimise the species affected. Fish pass
structures will be developed, demonstrated and
implemented, and rare animals, plants and
ancient trees will be well protected. The land
requisition compensation system will be continuously improved to ensure reasonable compensation for those displaced by hydropower
projects. Centralised and decentralised relocation
will be combined to provide an optimal solution
to any resettlement or employment problems
facing those required to move.
4.2.2 Renewable Energy: Increasing
Share of the Energy Mix
(1) Wind power: Equal focus on onshore and
offshore to ensure coordinated development
By 2020, onshore and offshore wind power will
play a dominant and complementary role. Wind
power projects in the north, north-east,
north-west, eastern coastal China and areas with
medium and low wind speed, will be developed.
By 2020, cumulative installed wind power
capacity will reach 250 GW, which is 12% of
China’s total installed power generation capacity.
Wind power will meet 6.5% of electricity demand,
at parity with conventional coal-fired generation.
In 2020–30, equal focus will be put on
onshore and offshore wind power development,
with new installed capacity close to 20 GW
annually. In 2030, cumulative installed wind
power capacity will exceed 400 GW, which will
be 8.6% of China’s total power output. The share
of wind power in the energy source mix will
increase to about 15%.
In 2030–50, offshore wind power development close to load centres will take off. In 2050,
cumulative installed wind power capacity will
exceed 1,000 GW, or 14.6% of China’s total
power output. The share of wind power in the
energy source mix will increase to about 25%.
(2) Solar power: Deploy the right solar technology for local conditions
In desert areas with abundant sun like west and north
China, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, solar power
will be prioritised. In medium and large cities in east
and central China, building-integrated PV systems
will rapidly develop and be widely deployed. In
regions that feature good sunshine conditions, large
areas of available land and abundant water resources, solar thermal pilot projects will be built to test
different solar thermal technologies. Installed solar
power capacity will reach 140 GW in 2020, 400 GW
in 2030 and 1,000 GW in 2050.
Solar power will speed up the process of
addressing access to electricity issues and poverty alleviation in areas that large grids don’t
reach. Poverty alleviation projects will be started
in those areas to help provide people in need with
a stable source of income.
(3) Liquid biofuels: A substitute for oil
In the heavy-duty truck, aviation and shipping
sectors, non-food liquid biofuels will be gradually
commercialised and used at scale. In the short and
medium terms, the production cost of non-food
liquid biofuels will drop sharply, with production
reaching 10 Mt in 2020. As breakthroughs are
made in second and third generation biomass
technologies—like cellulosic ethanol and
algae-based biofuel—liquid biofuels will gradually
replace petrol, diesel and kerosene in heavy-duty
trucks, aviation and shipping. The production of
liquid biofuels for transport will reach 20 Mt and 60
Mt in 2030 and 2050 respectively, replacing about
50 Mt of petroleum-based fuels.
(4) Renewable heat will grow extensively
Solar thermal energy will play an important role
in heating and cooling buildings and heating
water for homes, businesses and industry. By
2020, solar-powered water heating systems will
be extensively deployed to ensure that the heating capacity of solar thermal applications reaches
800 million cubic metres, and that solar thermal
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
151