production capacity. By 2050, coal production
will decline, but scientific coal will still make up
100% of total coal production capacity.
(3) Mechanised, smart coal mines will minimise
environmental impact and safety incidents
By 2020, the rehabilitation rate of old incidents
of collapsed land caused by coal mining in China
will be more than 80%, and that of recent ground
collapses will be more than 90%, which is more
than in developed economies. China’s mechanisation of coal mining will reach 90% and the
reuse of coal mine gas and mine water will reach
85% and 100% respectively. The reuse of currently stockpiled and newly added coal gangue
(solid waste) will be 90% and of associated
minerals 70%. China’s raw coal washing rate
will be 90%. The mortality rate per million tonnes of coal mined will be 0.03, which is close to
that of developed economies. The number of
major accidents will be less than five and the
number of fatalities below 100, which although
high is considerably below current levels.
By 2030, the rehabilitation rate of all collapsed
land from coal mining in China will be 100%.
Mechanisation will approach 100% and in largeand medium-sized mines reach 100%. Reuse of
coal mine gas and mine water will be 100%, as will
the reuse of currently stockpiled and newly added
coal gangue and associated minerals. China’s raw
coal washing rate will also be 100%. The mortality
rate per million tonnes of coal mined will be less
than 0.02, the most advanced level internationally,
and annual fatalities will not exceed 60.
By 2050, all of China’s coal mines will be
automated and smart. The fatality rate per million
tonnes of coal mined will be less than 0.01, and
there will be no major accidents during mining.
Coal mining will be safe and green, with
near-zero environmental impact and casualties.
(4) New business models will transform
coal-dependent cities
New business models are continuously emerging.
Cross-industry combinations in the form of
mergers and acquisitions between coal and
power companies will spread.
Traditional coal companies and coal-dependent
cities in mining regions will successfully transform.
As mechanisation and mine intelligence improve,
the number of coal mine workers will rapidly
decrease, especially those working in the mines.
Many coal-dependent cities will make vigorous
efforts to implement innovative reforms and successfully complete their transformation. Through
the coordinated development of strong industries,
support infrastructure and social programmes,
these once coal-dependent cities will evolve into
integrated regional centres that are modern, sustainable, liveable and business-favourable.
4.1.2 Oil and Gas
China’s focus on oil and gas exploration and
production will shift from predominantly conventional resources to an equal mix of both
conventional and unconventional resources—
onshore and offshore, and at different depths,
from shallow to ultra-deep.
Increasing its exploration and extraction of oil
and gas resources will strengthen supply capacity
and help safeguard national energy security.
Following long-term intensive development,
China sees limited production growth potential in
onshore conventional oil and gas. However,
China has abundant unconventional oil and gas
resources, including 19–22 billion tonnes of
recoverable unconventional oil resources and
nearly 40 trillion cubic metres of recoverable
unconventional gas. China’s production of
deep-sea oil and gas resources is low. In recent
years, China’s exploration of deep and ultra-deep
oil and gas has made continuous breakthroughs.
China must continue to make major adjustments
in oil and gas exploration and production to
achieve the equal mix of conventional and
unconventional resources it strives for to achieve
energy security. By 2030, China’s unconventional crude oil output will be 50 Mt, which is
20% of its total oil production. By 2030, natural
gas production will quadruple, with unconventional gas (including tight gas) increasing to
two-thirds of total production. In addition, offshore oil and gas production will exceed 100 Mt
and dependence on oil and gas imports will fall
to 40–45% of total consumption.
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
149
will decline, but scientific coal will still make up
100% of total coal production capacity.
(3) Mechanised, smart coal mines will minimise
environmental impact and safety incidents
By 2020, the rehabilitation rate of old incidents
of collapsed land caused by coal mining in China
will be more than 80%, and that of recent ground
collapses will be more than 90%, which is more
than in developed economies. China’s mechanisation of coal mining will reach 90% and the
reuse of coal mine gas and mine water will reach
85% and 100% respectively. The reuse of currently stockpiled and newly added coal gangue
(solid waste) will be 90% and of associated
minerals 70%. China’s raw coal washing rate
will be 90%. The mortality rate per million tonnes of coal mined will be 0.03, which is close to
that of developed economies. The number of
major accidents will be less than five and the
number of fatalities below 100, which although
high is considerably below current levels.
By 2030, the rehabilitation rate of all collapsed
land from coal mining in China will be 100%.
Mechanisation will approach 100% and in largeand medium-sized mines reach 100%. Reuse of
coal mine gas and mine water will be 100%, as will
the reuse of currently stockpiled and newly added
coal gangue and associated minerals. China’s raw
coal washing rate will also be 100%. The mortality
rate per million tonnes of coal mined will be less
than 0.02, the most advanced level internationally,
and annual fatalities will not exceed 60.
By 2050, all of China’s coal mines will be
automated and smart. The fatality rate per million
tonnes of coal mined will be less than 0.01, and
there will be no major accidents during mining.
Coal mining will be safe and green, with
near-zero environmental impact and casualties.
(4) New business models will transform
coal-dependent cities
New business models are continuously emerging.
Cross-industry combinations in the form of
mergers and acquisitions between coal and
power companies will spread.
Traditional coal companies and coal-dependent
cities in mining regions will successfully transform.
As mechanisation and mine intelligence improve,
the number of coal mine workers will rapidly
decrease, especially those working in the mines.
Many coal-dependent cities will make vigorous
efforts to implement innovative reforms and successfully complete their transformation. Through
the coordinated development of strong industries,
support infrastructure and social programmes,
these once coal-dependent cities will evolve into
integrated regional centres that are modern, sustainable, liveable and business-favourable.
4.1.2 Oil and Gas
China’s focus on oil and gas exploration and
production will shift from predominantly conventional resources to an equal mix of both
conventional and unconventional resources—
onshore and offshore, and at different depths,
from shallow to ultra-deep.
Increasing its exploration and extraction of oil
and gas resources will strengthen supply capacity
and help safeguard national energy security.
Following long-term intensive development,
China sees limited production growth potential in
onshore conventional oil and gas. However,
China has abundant unconventional oil and gas
resources, including 19–22 billion tonnes of
recoverable unconventional oil resources and
nearly 40 trillion cubic metres of recoverable
unconventional gas. China’s production of
deep-sea oil and gas resources is low. In recent
years, China’s exploration of deep and ultra-deep
oil and gas has made continuous breakthroughs.
China must continue to make major adjustments
in oil and gas exploration and production to
achieve the equal mix of conventional and
unconventional resources it strives for to achieve
energy security. By 2030, China’s unconventional crude oil output will be 50 Mt, which is
20% of its total oil production. By 2030, natural
gas production will quadruple, with unconventional gas (including tight gas) increasing to
two-thirds of total production. In addition, offshore oil and gas production will exceed 100 Mt
and dependence on oil and gas imports will fall
to 40–45% of total consumption.
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
149