(3) Strategic pathway scenarios
Based on the above analysis, the scenarios
developed in this study are as follows:
• First, in alignment with the strategic goals set
out in President Xi’s report to the 19th
National Congress of the Communist Party of
China in 2017, China’s socioeconomic
development scenario for 2050 forecasts the
economic aggregates, industry structure and
development of major industries in 2020,
2030 and 2050, which are then used as
external input variables to analyse China’s
energy supply pathways.
• Second, in light of China’s socioeconomic
development trends, and in accordance with
the Strategy of Energy Production and Consumption Revolution (2016–30), the recommended pathway scenario for China’s future
end-use energy development is described,
based on the present analysis.
• Third, we present our research on the impact
of scattered coal governance and EV development on end-use energy demand. Currently, haze prevention and control is the
biggest uncertainty influencing China’s
energy supply development pathway. Substituting electricity and gas for scattered coal
(SEGFSC) and replacing the internal combustion engine (ICE) with EVs are the two
most important ways to prevent and control
air pollution. The level of success in both
efforts will directly affect China’s future
energy supply system. This report analyses
both measures and uses the energy system
analysis model we developed to conduct
sensitivity research on their impacts on the
energy system. We developed three scenarios
for substituting electricity and gas for scattered coal—High, Medium and Low—and
two scenarios for replacing ICE vehicles with
EVs—the Recommended and Extreme.
• Fourth, based on research into end-use energy
demand, and in accordance with the need for
low-carbon energy development, China’s
future primary energy supply is forecast to
follow the Recommended scenario for the
energy supply revolution.
3.3.2 Socioeconomic Development
and Demand for Energy
Services
Research on China’s medium- and long-term
macroeconomic development draws different
conclusions. O’Neill and Stupnytska (2009) estimate that China’s GDP growth rate in 2011–20,
2021–30, 2031–40 and 2041–50 will be 7.9%,
5.7%, 4.4% and 3.6% respectively. In the rapid
economic growth scenario where supply-side
structural reform is implemented, Li and Lou
(2016) believe that the potential average economic
growth rate in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–20)
and 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–25)—neither of
which had been published at the time—would be
6.5% and 5.8% respectively. According to Xiao
Lin (2016), China’s long-term economic growth
will gradually slow down and approach the world
average (currently around 3.5%) before settling at
3–4% in 2050. Based on these projections, this
report forecasts population trends, growth drivers
and development trends for major industries. It
uses the SICGE model to make structural predictions and ensure there is consistency in macroeconomic trends, changes in energy demand and
shifts in industry structure. It also provides input
variables for the energy-environment system
analysis model.
(1) China’s population trend
According to the latest statistics of the National
Population and Family Planning Commission
(NPFPC),
11 China’s population will peak at 1.45
billion in 2030, 30 million more than the 2015
forecast of the United Nations. At the same time,
the number of people aged 65 or older will rise to
350 million in 2050, 2.4 times that of 2015.
Those aged 65 or older made up 11% of the
population in 2015, compared to a projected 25%
in 2050. Correspondingly, future labour supply
will decline absolutely, dropping to 830 million
in 2050, down 170 million from 2015 (Fig. 44).
Population and aging trends are crucial for China’s future economic development.
11
http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/201510/
b03bbb9da18044c299f673f0b84eeab1.shtml.
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
131
Based on the above analysis, the scenarios
developed in this study are as follows:
• First, in alignment with the strategic goals set
out in President Xi’s report to the 19th
National Congress of the Communist Party of
China in 2017, China’s socioeconomic
development scenario for 2050 forecasts the
economic aggregates, industry structure and
development of major industries in 2020,
2030 and 2050, which are then used as
external input variables to analyse China’s
energy supply pathways.
• Second, in light of China’s socioeconomic
development trends, and in accordance with
the Strategy of Energy Production and Consumption Revolution (2016–30), the recommended pathway scenario for China’s future
end-use energy development is described,
based on the present analysis.
• Third, we present our research on the impact
of scattered coal governance and EV development on end-use energy demand. Currently, haze prevention and control is the
biggest uncertainty influencing China’s
energy supply development pathway. Substituting electricity and gas for scattered coal
(SEGFSC) and replacing the internal combustion engine (ICE) with EVs are the two
most important ways to prevent and control
air pollution. The level of success in both
efforts will directly affect China’s future
energy supply system. This report analyses
both measures and uses the energy system
analysis model we developed to conduct
sensitivity research on their impacts on the
energy system. We developed three scenarios
for substituting electricity and gas for scattered coal—High, Medium and Low—and
two scenarios for replacing ICE vehicles with
EVs—the Recommended and Extreme.
• Fourth, based on research into end-use energy
demand, and in accordance with the need for
low-carbon energy development, China’s
future primary energy supply is forecast to
follow the Recommended scenario for the
energy supply revolution.
3.3.2 Socioeconomic Development
and Demand for Energy
Services
Research on China’s medium- and long-term
macroeconomic development draws different
conclusions. O’Neill and Stupnytska (2009) estimate that China’s GDP growth rate in 2011–20,
2021–30, 2031–40 and 2041–50 will be 7.9%,
5.7%, 4.4% and 3.6% respectively. In the rapid
economic growth scenario where supply-side
structural reform is implemented, Li and Lou
(2016) believe that the potential average economic
growth rate in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–20)
and 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–25)—neither of
which had been published at the time—would be
6.5% and 5.8% respectively. According to Xiao
Lin (2016), China’s long-term economic growth
will gradually slow down and approach the world
average (currently around 3.5%) before settling at
3–4% in 2050. Based on these projections, this
report forecasts population trends, growth drivers
and development trends for major industries. It
uses the SICGE model to make structural predictions and ensure there is consistency in macroeconomic trends, changes in energy demand and
shifts in industry structure. It also provides input
variables for the energy-environment system
analysis model.
(1) China’s population trend
According to the latest statistics of the National
Population and Family Planning Commission
(NPFPC),
11 China’s population will peak at 1.45
billion in 2030, 30 million more than the 2015
forecast of the United Nations. At the same time,
the number of people aged 65 or older will rise to
350 million in 2050, 2.4 times that of 2015.
Those aged 65 or older made up 11% of the
population in 2015, compared to a projected 25%
in 2050. Correspondingly, future labour supply
will decline absolutely, dropping to 830 million
in 2050, down 170 million from 2015 (Fig. 44).
Population and aging trends are crucial for China’s future economic development.
11
http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/201510/
b03bbb9da18044c299f673f0b84eeab1.shtml.
Special Report 1: A Study of China’s Energy Supply Revolution
131