272 PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
in the United States, potentially delaying a time at which oil supply is unable to keep pace with oil demand. Such uncertainties that
lead to changes in future oil demand ultimately make estimates
of the timing of a peak uncertain. Specifically, using future annual
increases in world oil consumption, ranging from 0%, to represent
no increase, to 3%, to represent a large increase, and out of the various scenarios examined, it may be up to 75 years for when the peak
may occur.
Factors that affect oil exploration and production also create
uncertainty about the rate of production decline and the timing of
the peak. The rate of decline after a peak is an important consideration because a decline that is more abrupt will likely have more
adverse economic consequences than a decline that is less abrupt.
Consumer actions could help mitigate the consequences of a nearterm peak and decline in oil production through demand-reducing
behaviors such as carpooling; teleworking; and eco-driving measures, such as proper tire inflation and slower driving speeds.
These energy savings come at some cost of convenience and productivity, and limited research has been done to estimate potential
fuel savings associated with such efforts. However, estimates by
the United States Department of Energy indicate that teleworking
could reduce total fuel consumption in the by 1 to 4%, depending
on whether teleworking is undertaken for two days per week or the
full five-day week, respectively.
If the peak occurs in the more distant future or the decline following a peak is less severe, alternative technologies have a
greater potential to mitigate the consequences. The United States
Department of Energy projects that the alternative technologies
have the potential to displace up to the equivalent of 34% of annual
U.S. consumption of petroleum products in the 2025 through 2030
time frame. However, the United States Department of Energy also
considers these projections optimistic because the assumption is
that sufficient time and effort are dedicated to the development of
these technologies to overcome the challenges they face.
More specifically, the United States Department of Energy
assumes sustained high oil prices above $50 per barrel as a driving force. The level of effort dedicated to overcoming challenges
to alternative technologies will depend in part on the price of oil,
with higher oil prices creating incentives to develop alternatives.
High oil prices also enhance consumer interest in alternatives that
consume less oil. For example, new purchases of light trucks, SUVs,
in the United States, potentially delaying a time at which oil supply is unable to keep pace with oil demand. Such uncertainties that
lead to changes in future oil demand ultimately make estimates
of the timing of a peak uncertain. Specifically, using future annual
increases in world oil consumption, ranging from 0%, to represent
no increase, to 3%, to represent a large increase, and out of the various scenarios examined, it may be up to 75 years for when the peak
may occur.
Factors that affect oil exploration and production also create
uncertainty about the rate of production decline and the timing of
the peak. The rate of decline after a peak is an important consideration because a decline that is more abrupt will likely have more
adverse economic consequences than a decline that is less abrupt.
Consumer actions could help mitigate the consequences of a nearterm peak and decline in oil production through demand-reducing
behaviors such as carpooling; teleworking; and eco-driving measures, such as proper tire inflation and slower driving speeds.
These energy savings come at some cost of convenience and productivity, and limited research has been done to estimate potential
fuel savings associated with such efforts. However, estimates by
the United States Department of Energy indicate that teleworking
could reduce total fuel consumption in the by 1 to 4%, depending
on whether teleworking is undertaken for two days per week or the
full five-day week, respectively.
If the peak occurs in the more distant future or the decline following a peak is less severe, alternative technologies have a
greater potential to mitigate the consequences. The United States
Department of Energy projects that the alternative technologies
have the potential to displace up to the equivalent of 34% of annual
U.S. consumption of petroleum products in the 2025 through 2030
time frame. However, the United States Department of Energy also
considers these projections optimistic because the assumption is
that sufficient time and effort are dedicated to the development of
these technologies to overcome the challenges they face.
More specifically, the United States Department of Energy
assumes sustained high oil prices above $50 per barrel as a driving force. The level of effort dedicated to overcoming challenges
to alternative technologies will depend in part on the price of oil,
with higher oil prices creating incentives to develop alternatives.
High oil prices also enhance consumer interest in alternatives that
consume less oil. For example, new purchases of light trucks, SUVs,