THE FUTURE
271
But more important, several trends that should have been established in the wake of the decreasing crude prices have never been
put into practice. For example, and most important, the failure of
politicians to recognize the need for a measure of energy independence through the development of alternate resources as well the
development of technologies that would assists in maximizing oil
recovery.
The fact that oil producing countries in the Middle East provide more than 50% of the world's consumption (El-Genk, 2008)
is indicative for the low diversification of energy sources and the
accompanying risks on smooth energy supply. The diversification
that is offered by the alternative supplies from Russia and Africa
cannot provide a sound solution for a supply disruption that may
occur in the Middle East region. An overview of the oil market and
the related risks and incidents clearly indicate that the risks associated to energy supply are many. War and civil conflicts might have
been replaced, to some extent, by weather conditions and monopolistic practices, but they are still playing a crucial factor in energy
supply (Doukas et ah, 2008). Therefore, the high dependency that
most countries have in energy imports made essential for the policy
makers to focus on the concept of security of energy supply. In this
context, there is a need to assess the current energy system and the
risks of energy disruptions in order to better design and adopt the
required policies.
Uncertainty about future demand for oil, which will influence
how quickly the remaining oil is used, contributes to the uncertainty about the timing of peak oil production. It is very likely that
crude oil will continue to be a major source of energy well into the
future and world consumption of petroleum products may even
grow during the nest four decades.
Future world oil demand will depend on such uncertain factors
as world economic growth, future government policy, and consumer choices.
Environmental concerns about gasoline's emissions of carbon
dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas, may encourage future reductions in oil demand if these concerns are translated into policies
that promote biofuels.
Consumer choices about conservation also can affect oil demand
and thereby influence the timing of a peak. For example, if consumers in the United States were to purchase more fuel-efficient
vehicles in greater numbers, this could reduce future oil demand
271
But more important, several trends that should have been established in the wake of the decreasing crude prices have never been
put into practice. For example, and most important, the failure of
politicians to recognize the need for a measure of energy independence through the development of alternate resources as well the
development of technologies that would assists in maximizing oil
recovery.
The fact that oil producing countries in the Middle East provide more than 50% of the world's consumption (El-Genk, 2008)
is indicative for the low diversification of energy sources and the
accompanying risks on smooth energy supply. The diversification
that is offered by the alternative supplies from Russia and Africa
cannot provide a sound solution for a supply disruption that may
occur in the Middle East region. An overview of the oil market and
the related risks and incidents clearly indicate that the risks associated to energy supply are many. War and civil conflicts might have
been replaced, to some extent, by weather conditions and monopolistic practices, but they are still playing a crucial factor in energy
supply (Doukas et ah, 2008). Therefore, the high dependency that
most countries have in energy imports made essential for the policy
makers to focus on the concept of security of energy supply. In this
context, there is a need to assess the current energy system and the
risks of energy disruptions in order to better design and adopt the
required policies.
Uncertainty about future demand for oil, which will influence
how quickly the remaining oil is used, contributes to the uncertainty about the timing of peak oil production. It is very likely that
crude oil will continue to be a major source of energy well into the
future and world consumption of petroleum products may even
grow during the nest four decades.
Future world oil demand will depend on such uncertain factors
as world economic growth, future government policy, and consumer choices.
Environmental concerns about gasoline's emissions of carbon
dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas, may encourage future reductions in oil demand if these concerns are translated into policies
that promote biofuels.
Consumer choices about conservation also can affect oil demand
and thereby influence the timing of a peak. For example, if consumers in the United States were to purchase more fuel-efficient
vehicles in greater numbers, this could reduce future oil demand