OIL PRICES 189
potential for a significant increase to 2015, the sources of expansion
in non-OPEC countries are more limited, with Russia, the Caspian
nations, Brazil, Angola, and Canada leading the way. There may
also be the emergence of some new sources of liquids capacity both
in the deep water, such as offshore Mauritania, and onshore in
Sudan. In addition, mature areas, such as Malaysia, are reemerging and a new play is being successfully developed in a previously unexplored deep-water area of offshore Sabah, in northwest
Malaysia. However, this shift in emphasis may prove to be to more
politically and operationally challenging countries, which increases
the levels of risk and supply anxiety in some consumer countries.
Analysis of the composition of new capacity shows that in the
medium term, there will be increasing proportions of light and
heavy oils and a reduction in the proportion of medium grade
crude. However, capacity additions to 2010 are predominately light
crude oil (8 million barrels per day), medium crude oil (5 million
barrels per day), and heavy crude oil (3 million barrels per day) with
a continuing rapid expansion of deep-water production capacity to
over 9 million barrels per day by 2010.
Production capacity of heavy oil and tar sand bitumen from
Canada and Venezuela will expand to approximately 5 million
barrels per day in 2015. The Canadian projects are moving
forward at an accelerating pace and expansion from 1 million
barrels per day of synthetic crude oil (from tar sand bitumen) to
more than 3 million barrels per day by 2015 is anticipated, with
approximately half being mined and the remainder in situ. In
Venezuela the four main Orinoco projects are on-stream (totaling
650,000 barrels per day) and with debottlenecking could reach
700,000 barrels per day by 2010.
Between 2010 and 2015, there is considerable potential to
expand total condensate plus natural gas liquids (NGLs) capacity
to 22 million barrels per day. Notable condensate expansions will
occur in Qatar as the liquefied natural gas (LNG) business expands
and more gas is produced for pipeline exports and gas-to-liquids
conversion. One of the largest expansions of condensate capacity
will occur in Norway.
Until recently the gas-to-liquids (GTL) business had contributed
only a small proportion of production at less than 200,000 barrels
per day in 2008, but there are a number of projects under way and
planned that are expected to boost production capacity to 480,000
barrels per day by 2010 and 1 million barrels per day in 2015. This is
potential for a significant increase to 2015, the sources of expansion
in non-OPEC countries are more limited, with Russia, the Caspian
nations, Brazil, Angola, and Canada leading the way. There may
also be the emergence of some new sources of liquids capacity both
in the deep water, such as offshore Mauritania, and onshore in
Sudan. In addition, mature areas, such as Malaysia, are reemerging and a new play is being successfully developed in a previously unexplored deep-water area of offshore Sabah, in northwest
Malaysia. However, this shift in emphasis may prove to be to more
politically and operationally challenging countries, which increases
the levels of risk and supply anxiety in some consumer countries.
Analysis of the composition of new capacity shows that in the
medium term, there will be increasing proportions of light and
heavy oils and a reduction in the proportion of medium grade
crude. However, capacity additions to 2010 are predominately light
crude oil (8 million barrels per day), medium crude oil (5 million
barrels per day), and heavy crude oil (3 million barrels per day) with
a continuing rapid expansion of deep-water production capacity to
over 9 million barrels per day by 2010.
Production capacity of heavy oil and tar sand bitumen from
Canada and Venezuela will expand to approximately 5 million
barrels per day in 2015. The Canadian projects are moving
forward at an accelerating pace and expansion from 1 million
barrels per day of synthetic crude oil (from tar sand bitumen) to
more than 3 million barrels per day by 2015 is anticipated, with
approximately half being mined and the remainder in situ. In
Venezuela the four main Orinoco projects are on-stream (totaling
650,000 barrels per day) and with debottlenecking could reach
700,000 barrels per day by 2010.
Between 2010 and 2015, there is considerable potential to
expand total condensate plus natural gas liquids (NGLs) capacity
to 22 million barrels per day. Notable condensate expansions will
occur in Qatar as the liquefied natural gas (LNG) business expands
and more gas is produced for pipeline exports and gas-to-liquids
conversion. One of the largest expansions of condensate capacity
will occur in Norway.
Until recently the gas-to-liquids (GTL) business had contributed
only a small proportion of production at less than 200,000 barrels
per day in 2008, but there are a number of projects under way and
planned that are expected to boost production capacity to 480,000
barrels per day by 2010 and 1 million barrels per day in 2015. This is