188 PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS
The low and high price cases reflect a wide band of potential world
oil price paths, ranging from $42 to $119 per barrel in 2030, but they
do not bound the set of all possible future outcomes. The high and
low oil price cases are predicated on assumptions about access to
and costs of non-OPEC oil, OPEC supply decisions, and the supply
potential of unconventional liquids.
The world counts on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) for more than 40% of total daily production of
crude oil. However, there is some doubt about the oil reserve estimates of the OPEC member countries. Saudi Arabia, for example,
has claimed crude reserves of 260 billion barrels for the past decade
despite having pumped between nine and 10.5 million bpd throughout that period. In fact, the Paris-based International Energy Agency
(IEA) predicts that the world can continue to increase oil production
for the next 25 years, but at a significant investment that may be in
excess of $600 billion US per year for the entire period. Added to this
are fears for political stability in several oil-producing states.
In terms of actual reserves numbers within the OPEC membership, Saudi Arabia possesses the largest resource base in the world,
with claims of 268 billion barrels of proven reserves. Other OPEC
countries also show promise of producing higher quantities of oil.
However, assuming no serious political crises in key producing
countries or an unexpected shortfall in investment, global oil production capacity will continue to grow strongly toward 102.4 million barrels per day by 2010 from the current level of approximately
87 million barrels per day. This expansion will be fairly evenly split
between OPEC and non-OPEC countries: 8.5 million barrels per
day and 6.7 million barrels per day, respectively. The expansion
continues to 2015, but OPEC shows a greater increase: a net gain of
12.2 million barrels per day (relative to 2005) versus 8.2 million barrels per day for non-OPEC. At the regional level, the United States
and North Sea show decreases through 2015, while Canada, West
and North Africa, Latin America, and the Caspian, and the Middle
East continue their current trend of strong expansion past 2010
and through 2015. Southeast Asia shows some modest growth,
but declines after 2010. At the same time, Russian capacity growth
slows.
By 2015, there could be a change in the geographic focus of the
sources of liquids supply. The proportion of liquids capacity from
the top 15 countries will rise from less than the current 60% to 65%
in 2015. While nearly every OPEC country, except Indonesia, shows
The low and high price cases reflect a wide band of potential world
oil price paths, ranging from $42 to $119 per barrel in 2030, but they
do not bound the set of all possible future outcomes. The high and
low oil price cases are predicated on assumptions about access to
and costs of non-OPEC oil, OPEC supply decisions, and the supply
potential of unconventional liquids.
The world counts on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) for more than 40% of total daily production of
crude oil. However, there is some doubt about the oil reserve estimates of the OPEC member countries. Saudi Arabia, for example,
has claimed crude reserves of 260 billion barrels for the past decade
despite having pumped between nine and 10.5 million bpd throughout that period. In fact, the Paris-based International Energy Agency
(IEA) predicts that the world can continue to increase oil production
for the next 25 years, but at a significant investment that may be in
excess of $600 billion US per year for the entire period. Added to this
are fears for political stability in several oil-producing states.
In terms of actual reserves numbers within the OPEC membership, Saudi Arabia possesses the largest resource base in the world,
with claims of 268 billion barrels of proven reserves. Other OPEC
countries also show promise of producing higher quantities of oil.
However, assuming no serious political crises in key producing
countries or an unexpected shortfall in investment, global oil production capacity will continue to grow strongly toward 102.4 million barrels per day by 2010 from the current level of approximately
87 million barrels per day. This expansion will be fairly evenly split
between OPEC and non-OPEC countries: 8.5 million barrels per
day and 6.7 million barrels per day, respectively. The expansion
continues to 2015, but OPEC shows a greater increase: a net gain of
12.2 million barrels per day (relative to 2005) versus 8.2 million barrels per day for non-OPEC. At the regional level, the United States
and North Sea show decreases through 2015, while Canada, West
and North Africa, Latin America, and the Caspian, and the Middle
East continue their current trend of strong expansion past 2010
and through 2015. Southeast Asia shows some modest growth,
but declines after 2010. At the same time, Russian capacity growth
slows.
By 2015, there could be a change in the geographic focus of the
sources of liquids supply. The proportion of liquids capacity from
the top 15 countries will rise from less than the current 60% to 65%
in 2015. While nearly every OPEC country, except Indonesia, shows