country needs a diversity of companies that secure the
plurality necessary to unfold the resource potential.
26.2 Probability Analysis
Assessment of the inherent uncertainties in evaluating
exploration prospects are referred to as probability or
risk analysis. The analyses are concerned with the
same parameters that define the various play types,
i.e. the presence of rock sequences with organic material that have been buried deep enough to generate
petroleum of various types, and assessment of porous
rocks or fractures where the petroleum can migrate
until it is retained is porous reservoirs of sufficient size
to be defined as drillable commercial prospects
(Fig. 26.5). The critical part of the assessment process
is to construct time and space relations between generation of traps, preservation of porosity, and the
migration and retention of petroleum.
There will always be alternative ways of combining
the parameters into equally likely scenarios. Possibility analyses need to reflect this by trying to define
many alternate ways of linking the critical parameters.
The alternate deterministic relations should reflect an
understanding of the geological processes that can
have happened.
The alternative to constructing possible scientific
relations is to treat the factors as independent. The
consequence of this approach results in the paradox
that the more factors that are used the lower the probability of success becomes. This is however a commonly
used approach and can be misleading as a decision tool,
as it underestimates the value of knowledge.
Probability analysis should be based on the awareness that the available facts at any time are only the
experienced part of the truth. New actions will always
uncover new facts and knowledge. Hence an
- always
- usually
- general
- by and large
- more often than not
- half the time
- often
- sometimes
- occasionally
- been known to happen
- never
- cannot be true
Truths and facts:
1. Thoughts are instant, thinking takes time (self-referencing).
2. Facts are the experienced parts of the truth. The truth must contain, but not be constrained by facts.
3. What is the likelihood of having experienced the truth based on facts?
4. The truth is so large that everybody can see a part of it but nobody the whole.
5. We should keep on unfolding reality by interacting with it (David Bohm).
Activity/time
1.0
0.5
0.0
Psuccess
Many
truths at
the same
time
One
truth at
the time
Exhausted
0.5
0.25
0.1
0.75
Front
Growth
Mature
Fig. 26.3 Sustainable organic growth needs a balanced exploration. Frontier, growth and mature exploration drilling should occur
in parallel
Frontier Growth
Mature
Stepouts Total
46
6
No of wells
Expected prospect size
300
20
Expected reserves (mmboe)
675
375
150
90
1290
Probability
0.15
0.75
0.25
0.5
15
10
15
100
30
Fig. 26.4 Frontier exploration is most cost efficient. The size of
the prospects compensate for the lower discovery rate
26 Exploration Strategy
641
plurality necessary to unfold the resource potential.
26.2 Probability Analysis
Assessment of the inherent uncertainties in evaluating
exploration prospects are referred to as probability or
risk analysis. The analyses are concerned with the
same parameters that define the various play types,
i.e. the presence of rock sequences with organic material that have been buried deep enough to generate
petroleum of various types, and assessment of porous
rocks or fractures where the petroleum can migrate
until it is retained is porous reservoirs of sufficient size
to be defined as drillable commercial prospects
(Fig. 26.5). The critical part of the assessment process
is to construct time and space relations between generation of traps, preservation of porosity, and the
migration and retention of petroleum.
There will always be alternative ways of combining
the parameters into equally likely scenarios. Possibility analyses need to reflect this by trying to define
many alternate ways of linking the critical parameters.
The alternate deterministic relations should reflect an
understanding of the geological processes that can
have happened.
The alternative to constructing possible scientific
relations is to treat the factors as independent. The
consequence of this approach results in the paradox
that the more factors that are used the lower the probability of success becomes. This is however a commonly
used approach and can be misleading as a decision tool,
as it underestimates the value of knowledge.
Probability analysis should be based on the awareness that the available facts at any time are only the
experienced part of the truth. New actions will always
uncover new facts and knowledge. Hence an
- always
- usually
- general
- by and large
- more often than not
- half the time
- often
- sometimes
- occasionally
- been known to happen
- never
- cannot be true
Truths and facts:
1. Thoughts are instant, thinking takes time (self-referencing).
2. Facts are the experienced parts of the truth. The truth must contain, but not be constrained by facts.
3. What is the likelihood of having experienced the truth based on facts?
4. The truth is so large that everybody can see a part of it but nobody the whole.
5. We should keep on unfolding reality by interacting with it (David Bohm).
Activity/time
1.0
0.5
0.0
Psuccess
Many
truths at
the same
time
One
truth at
the time
Exhausted
0.5
0.25
0.1
0.75
Front
Growth
Mature
Fig. 26.3 Sustainable organic growth needs a balanced exploration. Frontier, growth and mature exploration drilling should occur
in parallel
Frontier Growth
Mature
Stepouts Total
46
6
No of wells
Expected prospect size
300
20
Expected reserves (mmboe)
675
375
150
90
1290
Probability
0.15
0.75
0.25
0.5
15
10
15
100
30
Fig. 26.4 Frontier exploration is most cost efficient. The size of
the prospects compensate for the lower discovery rate
26 Exploration Strategy
641