Chapter 26
Exploration Strategy
Hans Chr Rønnevik
26.1 Play Concepts
The purpose of exploration for petroleum is to make
oil and gas discoveries that can form the basis for
commercial development and production of oil and
gas fields (Fig. 26.1). The formulation of ideas or
models for where to drill to make discoveries is
based on assessments of the generation, migration
and trapping of petroleum. Combinations of these
factors are referred to as play concepts. At the very
start of the exploration of an area within a sedimentary
basin the factual basis for assessing the various necessary factors is sparse and oil companies are confronted
with a wide range of possible scenarios that can lead to
petroleum discoveries. An open approach is, however,
needed in relation to what is the most likely scenario
both in the early and later phases of exploration. The
explicit knowledge can very easily shadow for the
implicit potential. Exploration is a continuous learning
process where the key to success is found in details
that are difficult to appreciate.
The play concepts should always contain, but never
be constrained by, available facts and knowledge.
Awareness of the unknown will always be the main
driver for generative learning. In the evaluation of play
concepts a maximum number of parameters must be
considered, and the limitations of current theories and
technology should be appreciated. Continuously
improving technology has to be applied when maturing the play types and prospects in an area. In this
context it is important to understand the behaviour
reference curve for the past successes and failures
of the exploration (Fig. 26.2). The successful
breakthroughs can be related more to the performance
of the actions rather than the predictions.
Early in the exploration phase of an area the
concepts will be referred to as frontier play concepts
(Fig. 26.3). When the models are documented by their
successful application and significant follow-up
discoveries are made, they are referred to as growth
plays. When only smaller, albeit frequent, discoveries
are made they are referred to as mature play concepts.
In the frontier phase the possibilities, assessments and
discovery frequency are in general less than 25%, in the
growth phase these factors are between 25–50% and in
the mature phase more than 50%. The resource growth
for each play concept follows an S-curve.
The perception of maturity is a subjective process and
frequent revitalisations of mature areas are experienced.
The S-curve also reflects the knowledge creation
process and clearly demonstrates that at any time one
should harvest using the knowledge at hand while creating new models to obtain a stable reserve growth over
time. Todays impossibilities will be tomorrow’s general
accepted truths. The explicit knowledge reflects the past
and the future is always in the tacit domain.
The reality can only be revealed through drilling
and there will in general be significant differences
between the pre- and post-drill assessment of reality.
The discovery wells need to be followed by delineation wells to clarify subsurface uncertainties and
assess the resource potential.
All parameters of unsuccessful as well as successful wells need to be re-analysed after drilling. The
main obstacle for learning is the human selfH. Chr Rønnevik (*)
Lundin, Norway
e-mail: Hans.Ronnevik@lundin-norway.no
K. Bjørlykke (ed.), Petroleum Geoscience: From Sedimentary Environments to Rock Physics,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-34132-8_26, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
639
Exploration Strategy
Hans Chr Rønnevik
26.1 Play Concepts
The purpose of exploration for petroleum is to make
oil and gas discoveries that can form the basis for
commercial development and production of oil and
gas fields (Fig. 26.1). The formulation of ideas or
models for where to drill to make discoveries is
based on assessments of the generation, migration
and trapping of petroleum. Combinations of these
factors are referred to as play concepts. At the very
start of the exploration of an area within a sedimentary
basin the factual basis for assessing the various necessary factors is sparse and oil companies are confronted
with a wide range of possible scenarios that can lead to
petroleum discoveries. An open approach is, however,
needed in relation to what is the most likely scenario
both in the early and later phases of exploration. The
explicit knowledge can very easily shadow for the
implicit potential. Exploration is a continuous learning
process where the key to success is found in details
that are difficult to appreciate.
The play concepts should always contain, but never
be constrained by, available facts and knowledge.
Awareness of the unknown will always be the main
driver for generative learning. In the evaluation of play
concepts a maximum number of parameters must be
considered, and the limitations of current theories and
technology should be appreciated. Continuously
improving technology has to be applied when maturing the play types and prospects in an area. In this
context it is important to understand the behaviour
reference curve for the past successes and failures
of the exploration (Fig. 26.2). The successful
breakthroughs can be related more to the performance
of the actions rather than the predictions.
Early in the exploration phase of an area the
concepts will be referred to as frontier play concepts
(Fig. 26.3). When the models are documented by their
successful application and significant follow-up
discoveries are made, they are referred to as growth
plays. When only smaller, albeit frequent, discoveries
are made they are referred to as mature play concepts.
In the frontier phase the possibilities, assessments and
discovery frequency are in general less than 25%, in the
growth phase these factors are between 25–50% and in
the mature phase more than 50%. The resource growth
for each play concept follows an S-curve.
The perception of maturity is a subjective process and
frequent revitalisations of mature areas are experienced.
The S-curve also reflects the knowledge creation
process and clearly demonstrates that at any time one
should harvest using the knowledge at hand while creating new models to obtain a stable reserve growth over
time. Todays impossibilities will be tomorrow’s general
accepted truths. The explicit knowledge reflects the past
and the future is always in the tacit domain.
The reality can only be revealed through drilling
and there will in general be significant differences
between the pre- and post-drill assessment of reality.
The discovery wells need to be followed by delineation wells to clarify subsurface uncertainties and
assess the resource potential.
All parameters of unsuccessful as well as successful wells need to be re-analysed after drilling. The
main obstacle for learning is the human selfH. Chr Rønnevik (*)
Lundin, Norway
e-mail: Hans.Ronnevik@lundin-norway.no
K. Bjørlykke (ed.), Petroleum Geoscience: From Sedimentary Environments to Rock Physics,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-34132-8_26, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
639